What Will Happen At Trump-Putin Summit? 4 Possible Outcomes

Newsweek

2 days ago

Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources.
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The White House called Friday's meeting between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump a "listening exercise," but even if it aimed to manage expectations over the chances of a breakthrough in the war in Ukraine, other diplomatic outcomes could ensue.
Trump and other administration officials signaled that the Alaska summit will not end the fighting in Ukraine, and that it would likely require a follow-up summit involving both Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who will be absent in Anchorage.
Even without a ceasefire, experts have told Newsweek the meeting has other consequences, like the return of Putin to the top table of diplomacy and the sidelining of Europe over the war he started.
Russian President Vladimir Putin pictured, left, on July 31, 2025, at the Kremlin in Moscow, and President Donald Trump pictured, right, on August 7, 2025, at the Oval Office in the White House, Washington, D.C.
Russian President Vladimir Putin pictured, left, on July 31, 2025, at the Kremlin in Moscow, and President Donald Trump pictured, right, on August 7, 2025, at the Oval Office in the White House, Washington, D.C.
Getty Images
Why It Matters
Trump has downplayed expectations for his meeting, in which he said his conversation with Putin "will be good, but it might be bad."
But even without a breakthrough, there is concern over how much Putin has gained simply by meeting the president on U.S. soil with no Ukrainian leadership present and what the consequences of this might be for the conflict.
What To Know
The Russian delegation for the meeting at the Elmendorf-Richardson military base in Anchorage will include Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Defense Minister Andrey Belousov, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov and Russia's sovereign wealth fund head, Kirill Dmitriev.
Putin aide Yury Ushakov said the war would be the focus but the discussion would also build on earlier talks with Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff, and that trade, economic cooperation and global security would be on the agenda.
Here are four possible outcomes of the Trump-Putin summit, according to experts.
1. Diminished Role for Europe
Ukraine's European allies reiterated during a call on Wednesday, involving Trump and Zelensky, Kyiv's position that borders cannot be changed by force.
But Kyiv's European partners are stuck in a pattern in which they are responding to Trump's maneuvers, rather than shaping the diplomatic efforts to end the war, Rafael Loss, policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), told Newsweek.
This shows Europe's dependency on American security guarantees and favorable trade relations. The EU would find it impossible to defy any U.S.-Russia agreement for fear of losing American support to defend Europe and Ukraine, he said.
An ECFR policy brief in June said that the EU will bear the brunt of the conflict's outcome. European NATO members have upped defense spending since Trump began his second term in office, amid questions over Washington's role as the continent's security guarantor.
But after the summit, Europe and Ukraine's leaders should prepare for Trump's urge to normalize relations with Russia and for Putin to continue to string Trump along with ambiguous promises of deals, Loss said.
A view of downtown Anchorage on August 13, 2025, ahead of the meeting between Trump and Putin in Alaska.
A view of downtown Anchorage on August 13, 2025, ahead of the meeting between Trump and Putin in Alaska.2. Putin Ends His Isolation
No major Western leader has met with Putin since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. But after being internationally isolated by the West, Putin returns to the U.S. for the first time in a decade with pro-Kremlin media making much of Alaska's symbolic status as a former outpost of the Russian empire.
"The optics for Putin are brilliant. He is being welcomed to the United States, although he's an international war criminal," said Richard Portes, economics professor at London Business School, referring to the arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) that the U.S. does not recognize.
Jana Kobzova, ECFR senior policy fellow, said the meeting effectively means an end to Putin's international isolation and that he gets a summit with the U.S. president, without any concessions. "That is already a good outcome for Putin," she said.
Valerie Sperling, an expert on Russian politics at Clark University, said that if Trump tries to make concessions on Ukraine's behalf that Zelensky would refuse, Putin can spin it as showing the Ukrainian president as uncooperative.
"Putin will probably come out ahead from this summit no matter what happens there," Sperling said.
3. 'Neutralization' of U.S. on Ukraine War
Kobzova said Russia's most favorable outcome would be the "neutralization" of the U.S. over Ukraine, in which there would be decreased American involvement in efforts to end the war and an end of military aid to Kyiv.
"Expect Putin to float all kinds of possibilities for joint U.S.-Russian energy and other business, including tapping Arctic resources," she said.
British newspaper The Daily Telegraph reported Thursday that Trump might offer economic incentives to Putin—including opening up access to natural resources off Alaska's coast.
This report has not been confirmed, but cooperation with Russia in the Arctic has been on Trump's agenda since he returned to the Oval Office.
The commercial opportunities to expedite a peace deal also include minerals in occupied Ukrainian territory and lifting American sanctions on Russia's aviation industry, according to the newspaper, whose claims have not been independently verified.
4. No Ceasefire but Another Meeting
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Thursday that there would be no communiqué issued after the summit, and Trump has said a further meeting involving Zelensky would be required before any ceasefire could be agreed.
Referring to territory that Russia partially controls, Trump said last week that "There'll be some swapping of territories to the betterment of both" countries, in exchange for a ceasefire. Kyiv has repeatedly rejected ceding territory to Moscow as counter to its constitution.
Vuk Vuksanovic, associate at London School of Economics think tank LSE IDEAS, told Newsweek that Russia has no incentives to agree to either a ceasefire or yielding on its two key demands: Ukraine giving up on NATO membership and agreeing to give up on Crimea and four regions that Russia annexed in 2022.
With Russian forces advancing in Ukraine's Donbas region, Moscow is convinced its battlefield situation will only get better, and so does not want to give its advantage away now by agreeing to a ceasefire, Vuksanovic added.
Trump has warned that Russia would face "very severe consequences" if he finds Putin is still not serious about ending the war on Friday, but the White House messaging is that a further meeting would be needed involving Zelensky.
Konstantin Sonin, a Russian-born economist and Putin critic who is a professor at the Harris School of Public Policy at the University of Chicago, said the Alaska summit is unlikely to produce any tangible result.
"Putin is delusional and will not reduce his demands, and Zelensky has his back against the brick wall. The sticking point is that if Ukraine disarms, for example, abandons the Fortress Belt in Eastern Ukraine, Putin will attack again," Sonin told Newsweek.
What People Are Saying
Jana Kobzova, ECFR senior policy fellow, told Newsweek: "Russia's most favorable outcome would be the 'neutralization' of the U.S. when it comes to Ukraine."
Vuk Vuksanovic, associate at LSE Ideas, told Newsweek: "The biggest question mark is whether, in the absence of any solution, Trump, in frustration, may decide to walk away from Ukraine fully."
Valerie Sperling, professor at Clark University, told Newsweek: "The summit cannot lead to a deal to produce peace in Ukraine if Ukraine will not be represented there."
Yuriy Boyechko, CEO of Hope for Ukraine, told Newsweek: "Friday will be a test of whether the United States still holds its ground as a global superpower on the world stage."
What Happens Next
The meeting starts Friday at 11.30 a.m. local time and the leaders will first speak one-on-one with only translators present, before moving to broader talks with their delegations, according to Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov.
This will be followed by a working breakfast. A joint press conference is expected at the end of the summit, Russia news agency Interfax reported.