Maine Democrats want to beat Susan Collins. Step one? Finding a challenger.

Boston Globe

13-05-2025

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TODAY'S STARTING POINT
In 2020, Susan Collins looked like an endangered species.
Collins, Maine's senior senator, was the last Republican member of Congress from New England. Donald Trump was in the White House. Collins, a moderate, had broken with him on major legislation. She faced a well-funded Democratic challenger. And polls suggested that after decades in office,
Yet Collins ended up winning by nearly 9 points — even as Trump lost Maine to Joe Biden by a similar margin.
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Many of the same dynamics still pertain ahead of Collins's expected run for a sixth term next year. Her staying power seems to have made prominent Maine Democrats wary of challenging her and Maine Republicans content with a senator who sometimes defies Trump. Today's newsletter explains Collins's strengths and potential weaknesses.
The politics of fear
Collins, first elected in 1996, has survived all kinds of political environments. She's won in good years for Democrats, like 2008, and in good years for Republicans, like 2014. She's won after outspending her opponent (2002) and after her opponent outspent her (2020). She's won under presidents of both parties (Clinton, Bush, Obama, Trump), in midterm and presidential elections alike.
That's an intimidating record. It may help explain why, even as several high-profile Maine Democrats angle to run for governor next year, no major challenger has yet announced against Collins. (
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Senator and governor are different jobs, and seeking an open seat — Governor Janet Mills, a Democrat, is term-limited — is easier. But at least one Maine Democrat who wanted to be a senator in the past — Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, who lost to Collins by 37 points in 2014 — is running for governor instead.
Charlie Dingman, chair of the Maine Democratic Party, argues that it's still early and that challengers will emerge. 'I'm aware of and have been talking with a number of folks in the Democratic Party in Maine who are very interested in the opportunity and are exploring it,' he said, declining to name names. 'I expect we'll have a very strong field.'
The most eagerly anticipated entrant may be Mills, 77, who easily won re-election in 2022 and gained national attention when she clashed with Trump earlier this year over transgender athletes. Chuck Schumer, the Senate Democratic leader, has reportedly
Chellie Pingree, a US representative who lost to Collins in 2002,
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Strengths
Even if Democrats do field a strong challenger, Collins has at least three advantages going for her this year.
One is experience. Nearly 30 years in office have bred a deep connection to voters in a small state where personal touch can transcend partisanship. 'It's the most successful political machine the state of Maine has ever seen,' said Lance Dutson, a strategist who worked on Collins's past three campaigns.
Another, ironically, is Maine's blue lean. In 2020, despite having voted to block Trump's repeal of the Affordable Care Act, Collins faced only token primary opposition — an acknowledgment that she may be the best Maine Republicans can get.
'Collins is somebody that votes with Republicans more than she doesn't vote with Republicans, supports the Trump administration more than she doesn't support the Trump administration,' said Nicholas Jacobs, a political scientist at Colby College in Waterville. As other GOP senators face serious threats from more Trump-aligned challengers, no similar movement has yet emerged against Collins.
Collins's third advantage may be plausible deniability. She chairs the Senate appropriations committee, giving her a powerful perch to break from Trump and other Republicans over tax policy and government funding if she chooses. 'It's a chance to prove her independence,' Jacobs said.
Vulnerabilities
Still, Collins may yet end up with a real race on her hands.
Past polls have underestimated her, but
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Next year's electorate may also complicate her path. Split-ticket voters who backed a Democrat for president and Collins for Senate helped her win in 2008 and 2020. But voters who increasingly support Democrats — whiter, older, and more educated — have been more likely to turn out in recent midterms. That means Collins may face a substantially bluer electorate than in prior cycles.
Her record also offers Democrats plenty to criticize. Collins voted to confirm four of the six Supreme Court justices who struck down Roe v. Wade and controversial Trump nominees like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Russell Vought, an architect of Project 2025.
For now, Maine Democrats' best recruiting pitch may be that past isn't necessarily prologue. 'We are seeing such an extraordinary eagerness on the part of the president to dismantle our government wholesale and to do so in a lawless fashion,' Dingman, the state party chair, said. 'I just don't believe that the results of an election in a past cycle are going to discourage people from taking on that challenge.'
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