Apple, Samsung to help India buck global smartphone manufacturing downturn in 2025: Counterpoint

Time of India

2 days ago

NEW DELHI: India is expected to capture a 20% share of the global
smartphone manufacturing
output in 2025, fuelled by export demand from
Apple
and
Samsung
and and may buck the downturn in the overall market,
Counterpoint Research
said in a report released Tuesday.
'India is set to be the big winner in 2025. The country is expected to record double-digit percentage growth during the year to capture a 20% share of the global output,' the research firm said, adding that Vietnam, also a global manufacturing export hub, will also see strong growth driven by Samsung and Motorola.
Prachir Singh, a senior analyst with Counterpoint Research, said that ongoing investments from global electronics manufacturing services (EMS) firms and active participation from domestic firms have significantly improved India's homegrown manufacturing capabilities, making the country well-suited to meet higher production demands.
'Meanwhile, India's overall manufacturing ecosystem is continuously growing, and local manufacturing is consistently improving, both in terms of yield and complexity,' Singh said.
The Donald Trump administration has imposed a 10% baseline tariff on all countries, including India, with China also imposing reciprocal tariffs on the US. Notably, consumer electronics items, including smartphones and laptops, remain exempt from tariffs.
However, Trump has threatened to impose a 25% tariff on all smartphone brands, particularly targeting Apple iPhones and Samsung handsets made outside the US, unless they are manufactured in America, the US media reported recently.
Globally, smartphone manufacturing output is expected to slip 1% year-on-year in 2025 due to tariff impacts and a broader industry slowdown, following a 4% year-on-year rise in 2024, according to Counterpoint Research.
China, India, and Vietnam were responsible for more than 90% of the global manufacturing output in 2024, with India leading in terms of growth. However, in 2025, manufacturing outputs from different countries are expected to show mixed performances.
China will feel the impact of tariffs in 2025, which will result in declining output coupled with forecast domestic underperformance.
Counterpoint Research Senior Analyst, Ivan Lam, said, '...the tariffs have hurt industry players at every level – from upstream component suppliers to downstream importers and distributors, brands to manufacturers. Consequently, brand owners have no choice but to move out of China and allocate more production capacity and output in other countries.'
Lam added that India and Vietnam are expected to emerge as winners, with the latter region being closer to China and having a mature contract manufacturing and export sector for consumer electronics.
'If Apple really produced an iPhone in a US factory, considering that everything is not in place yet, my estimate is that the price will go up by at least 15%-20%, i.e., $150-$200. We believe this cost increase will be mostly due to the cost delta of labor, factories' amortised capex, and logistics.'said Neil Shah, vice president at Counterpoint Research.
The research firm pointed out that shifting supply chains requires significant, concerted effort, capital, and time, and noted that China, India, and Vietnam have taken over 10 years to build and achieve their current capabilities and capacities.
Recently, the agency revised down its 2025 global smartphone shipment growth forecast to 1.9% year-on-year from the previous 4.2% year-on-year, in light of the renewed uncertainties surrounding US tariffs. However, most regions will still likely see growth, except North America and China.