Ag Markets Focused on This Week's USDA Outlook Forum: 3 Key Things to Watch
U.S. corn and soybean acreage forecasts under current conditions will be among the key focal points. Those acreage numbers often set the price tones for corn (ZCH25), soybeans (ZSH25) and even wheat (ZWH25) for many weeks to follow — until the USDA planting intentions and quarterly grain stocks updates are published in late March.
Corn and wheat futures prices have been trending higher for several weeks, and the new U.S. acreage forecasts will very likely move grain futures market prices late this week. Many grain traders are looking for higher 2025 U.S. corn acreage than last year, at around 92 million acres. This is especially true given the recent rally in corn futures prices. For soybeans, the trade expects U.S. acreage at around 86 million, which would be slightly lower than last year. That's due in part to the recent corn futures rally while the soybean futures market has seen its price uptrend turn choppy and sideways over the past three weeks. Wheat (MWH25) futures prices are likely to follow the lead of corn futures on any initial Ag Forum-inspired price moves.
New U.S. Tariffs and Other Trade Sanctions Are a Wild Card
Veteran ag market watcher and USDA policy analyst Jim Wiesemeyer reports 'the agency produced its budget-related figures last fall that were part of the Agricultural Projections publication that was released ahead of the conference. It is not clear how much the figures released this week will change relative to the initial budget-related outlooks.' President Donald Trump's administration has made budget-cutting and other disruptive moves across many U.S. government agencies over the past four weeks.
'USDA analysts in the forecasts released this week are not expected to make any assumptions on the impact of potential tariffs on U.S. agricultural commodities. For the world agricultural supply and demand estimates (WASDE), the analysts use the policy actions that are in effect at the time and their outlooks presented this week should follow that track,' said Wiesemeyer.
The Ag Department will update its forecast for U.S. agricultural trade which again should not account for any impacts from potential tariffs since those are not yet in effect. Ag futures markets traders will closely scrutinize USDA's lean on U.S. agricultural trade prospects in the coming year, including any new comments on U.S. trade policy from USDA officials at the forum.
Major U.S. Trading Partners Will Be Key Discussion Points at Forum
The retaliatory tariffs announced by China have not yet targeted U.S. agricultural products. 'Despite the lack of tariffs currently in place on imports from Canada and Mexico, those potential levies are likely to dominate or at least be one of the key discussion points in 'hallway chatter' that takes place throughout the event,' said Wiesemeyer.
New USDA Chief to Speak
USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins has already made several public appearances and has held several meetings at USDA in the short time she has occupied the office. Her remarks at the Ag Outlook Forum will be the first time some of the attendees that typically number more than 1,000 will hear from the USDA leader.
The other 'hallway chatter' point will likely be on USDA and other government employees and how many may have been fired due to being probationary workers.
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