Amidst Trump's tariff war, S&P upgrades India's credit rating to 'BBB' from 'BBB-'; outlook stable
The agency indicated that the stable outlook is based on anticipated policy consistency and significant infrastructure investments, which are expected to enhance India's long-term economic growth. S&P also mentioned that the effects of US tariffs on India are likely to be manageable, with strong economic fundamentals anticipated to sustain the country's growth trajectory over the next two to three years.
"We believe the effect of US tariffs on the
Indian economy
will be manageable.
India is relatively less reliant on trade and about 60% of its economic growth stems from domestic consumption. We expect that in the event India has to switch from importing Russian crude oil, the fiscal cost, if fully borne by the government, will be modest given the narrow price differential between Russian crude and current international benchmarks," S&P Global said.
During trade policy discussions, Trump referred to India as a "dead economy" and expressed dissatisfaction with New Delhi's decision to keep purchasing inexpensive oil from Russia.
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"I don't care what India does with Russia. They can take their dead economies down together," Trump reportedly stated.
The Trump administration's decision to implement a 50% tariff (comprising a 25% base tariff and an additional 25% on India's crude oil trade with Russia) is not expected to significantly affect the Indian economy or its growth trajectory, according to S&P Global Ratings. S&P has stated that these US tariffs do not threaten India's favorable sovereign outlook.
On Wednesday, S&P Global Ratings Director YeeFarn Phua expressed that India's growth would not be impacted by Trump's tariffs due to its limited reliance on trade, while maintaining a positive sovereign ratings outlook.
As reported by PTI, when asked about the potential risks to India's positive outlook from US tariffs, YeeFarn clarified that India's economy would remain stable, highlighting that exports to the US account for only 2% of India's GDP, indicating low trade dependency.
"I don't think the tariffs imposed on India will affect economic growth, mainly because India is not heavily trade-dependent. If you consider India's export exposure to the US relative to GDP, it is just about 2%," YeeFarn Phua stated.
S&P anticipates India's GDP growth to remain consistent at 6.5% for the current fiscal year, mirroring the performance of the previous year.
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