Farmers nervously hope for some trade war relief

Axios

16-05-2025

As Ryan Mackenthun plants his soybeans and corn this spring across 2,300 acres of Minnesota farmland that cradles his family's 1887 homestead, he is both fearful of President Trump's latest tariffs and still smarting from those enacted during his first term.
The big picture: The 48-year-old father of three said he and his brethren have yet to see any impact from Trump's "Liberation Day" proclamations. But that doesn't mean it isn't top of mind throughout an already stressed and strained industry.
He's in the animal feed business, and much of his soybeans and corn are sold to other countries, which use it to feed their chickens, hogs and cows.
Soybean prices have been flat for about a year, and China's appetite for crushed soybean meal has been dropping for years, Mackenthun said.
"If we had this conversation 10 years ago, we'd say one in every three rows…went to China. Today that conversation is one in every four," he said. "We've lost that market already, we don't want to lose any more."
After Trump enacted tariffs against China in 2018, Beijing responded, and Mackenthun's soybeans joined a list of more than 100 U.S. products that fell victim to those retaliatory tariffs, sending prices plunging.
"It makes me, as a farmer, really nervous if we see that again," he said. "It'll be devastating, so we're hoping for a quick resolution to this whole tariff war." He added, "It's hard to be hopeful this time around."
Meanwhile, China increasingly buys its soybeans from Brazil.
Zoom out: Beyond China, farmers like Mackenthun also sell to Mexico, Canada, India, Japan and Taiwan, he said, and they are trying to develop markets from the European Union to Morocco and Uzbekistan.
But developing new markets and relationships takes time, he said, and those nations need to build crush plants and other infrastructure.
State of play: There are second-order effects to tariffs as well, Mackenthun noted, adding that farmers get "a lot of raw ingredients" for crop protection products from China.
"We get a lot of parts from other countries, for equipment," he said. "We're going to see a lower price from lower demand for our product, and a higher cost of inputs, so it's a little scary."
Mackenthun reinvested in his farm in recent years when interest rates were low. He plans to weather the tariff storm with his current equipment.
But when farmers aren't buying $300,000 planters, or $750,000 combines for harvesting, that impacts other industries.
The intrigue: Mackenthun, vice president of the Minnesota Soybean Growers Association, said he has planted more corn than ever this year, a commodity whose price has risen since December.
But he doesn't see more corn as the solution to surviving tariffs.
"That might work for a year, but if everybody does that, then we'll have an oversupply of corn, and the corn price will go down."
What's next: Mackenthun has been encouraged by the talk of talks between Washington and Beijing, and tariff pauses on other nations, which provide "a little optimism that things will get resolved quickly."