Powerful Hurricane Erin undergoing astonishingly rapid changes in its intensity

Saudi Gazette

2 days ago

MIAMI — Erin is a Category 4 hurricane again, the National Hurricane Center said in its 11 p.m. ET update Sunday, with sustained winds of 130 mph and tropical storm-force winds reaching out 230 miles. The storm was just under a thousand miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina as of Sunday evening.
Erin is expected to continue to strengthen and could double or even triple in size as it moves north and west, causing rough, dangerous ocean conditions across much of the western Atlantic, the Hurricane Center said.
The powerful storm has undergone astonishingly rapid changes — a phenomenon that has become far more common in recent years as the planet warms. It quickly became a rare Category 5 for a time Saturday, before weakening and becoming a larger system on Sunday as it churns through the Atlantic Ocean north of the Caribbean.
Erin went from a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds at 11 a.m. Friday to a Category 5 with near 160 mph winds just over 24 hours later. It put Erin in the history books as one of the fastest-strengthening Atlantic hurricanes on record, and potentially the fastest intensification rate for any storm earlier than September 1.
Hurricane Erin is still expected to avoid a direct hit on any land mass, passing north of Puerto Rico, then curving north-northeast into the open Atlantic between the East Coast and Bermuda. As it does so, it is expected to double or even triple in size.
Even though the hurricane is not anticipated to reach the US mainland, forecasters say rip currents will be a factor beginning Monday across Southern beaches and up to Northeast coastal areas later in the week.The rip current threat will increase before higher surf is evident, so the Weather Service is cautioning people to not base the risk level off whether they see large waves.'When assessing how people in the US lost their lives from the last 10 years due to tropical storms and hurricanes about 12% of them were due to rip currents,' according to Cassandra Mora, meteorologist at the Hurricane Center.As a precaution, Dare County in North Carolina — where the Outer Banks are located — on Sunday issued a local state of emergency, which includes a mandatory evacuation order for Hatteras Island.'Coastal flooding and ocean overwash are expected to begin as early as Tuesday, August 19, 2025 and continue through Thursday, August 21, 2025. Portions of N.C. Highway 12 on Hatteras Island will likely be impassable for several days,' according to a news release.The outer bands of Erin continue to produce heavy rainfall across Puerto Rico, with additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches expected across the island through Monday, according to the Hurricane Center.Additional rainfall of up to 6 inches is forecast over the Turks and Caicos and the eastern Bahamas through Tuesday. Flash flooding, landslides and mudslides are possible, it added. There are tropical storm warnings in effect in Turks and Caicos Islands and southeast Bahamas.So far, the storm has left 100,000 people without power in Puerto Rico, Gov. Jennifer González-Colón said in an update Sunday.Rapid intensification is when a hurricane gains at least 35 mph of wind speed in at least 24 hours. Extreme rapid intensification historically tends to happen in September and October.Even more hurricanes are rapidly intensifying in the Atlantic as the oceans and atmosphere warm in response to fossil fuel pollution and the global warming it causes. This likely makes Erin another example of the increasing extremes of a warming world.Furthermore, Hurricane Erin is now one of only 43 Category 5 hurricanes on record in the Atlantic — which makes it rare, though not as rare in the context of recent hurricane seasons — as peak strength is becoming easier for storms to achieve. It is the 11th Category 5 hurricane recorded in the Atlantic since 2016, an unusually high number.It's also unusual to see a Category 5 storm form so early in the season, particularly outside of the Gulf of Mexico. Mid-August is around the time of peak hurricane activity, but the strongest storms tend to occur later in the season.The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is now the fourth straight season to feature a Category 5 storm, with two occurring last year, hurricanes Beryl and Milton.There's plenty of fuel in the region for Erin to tap into as sea surface temperatures are much warmer than normal. They aren't quite as warm as the record levels reached in 2023 and 2024, but are still far warmer than they'd be in a world that wasn't heating up.Erin is the Atlantic's first major hurricane of the season. Four other systems roamed the Atlantic basin before Erin — Andrea, Barry, Chantal and Dexter — but none were stronger than a tropical storm.The first hurricane of the season typically forms around August 11, so Erin was slightly behind schedule, particularly compared to early arrivals in recent seasons. There had already been three hurricanes — Beryl, Debby and Ernesto — by August 15 last year.There will be more chances for tropical systems to develop this month. Longer term forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center highlight the same part of the Atlantic Erin developed in as a place to watch for new storms into at least early September.August is when the tropics usually come alive: The busiest stretch of the season typically spans from mid-August to mid-October. Forecasters expect above-average tropical activity this year. — CNN