Bond Market (TLT) Anxiety Grows as Moody's Downgrades US Credit Rating

Globe and Mail

24-05-2025

U.S. long-term borrowing costs are climbing sharply as bond markets express mounting anxiety about America's ballooning fiscal deficits. The term premium on 10-year Treasuries (TLT)—extra compensation investors require to hold long-term bonds—approached 1%, a level unseen since 2014. Investors' unease was exacerbated by Moody's downgrade of U.S. sovereign debt and weak demand in recent Treasury auctions, reflecting skepticism toward the nation's widening budget gap and surging debt burden. This week's turmoil was amplified by the U.S. House passing a multitrillion-dollar extension of Trump-era tax cuts, raising fresh fears that the nation's fiscal trajectory is unsustainable. As 30-year Treasury yields briefly touched 5.15%, their highest level in nearly two decades, markets sent a clear message: investors are demanding greater compensation for taking on long-term U.S. debt, which historically was considered the world's safest asset. Market Overview:
10-year U.S. Treasury term premium nearing highest levels since 2014
30-year yields surge past 5%, reflecting deepening fiscal concerns
Global bond yields also rising amid deficit worries and inflation fears
Key Points:
Moody's downgrade and weak Treasury auctions amplify debt market anxiety
Trump's extensive tax cuts exacerbate fears of unsustainable borrowing
Investors shifting away from U.S. assets due to persistent policy uncertainty
Looking Ahead:
Long-term borrowing costs likely to remain elevated amid fiscal uncertainty
Risk of foreign central banks selling U.S. Treasuries increases as yields rise globally
Persistent market volatility expected unless U.S. fiscal policy regains investor confidence
Bull Case:
Despite Moody's downgrade and rising yields, some prominent Wall Street strategists view any resultant dip in stocks as a buying opportunity, particularly if broader geopolitical conditions, like trade truces, show signs of improvement.
The U.S. has a history of effective monetary policy led by an independent Federal Reserve, which can help navigate economic challenges and mitigate the impact of fiscal concerns on markets.
The Treasury Secretary has downplayed the immediate impact of the Moody's downgrade, expressing confidence that administration policies will spur economic growth capable of managing the debt burden.
While rising yields increase borrowing costs, higher yields on U.S. Treasuries could, in some scenarios, attract certain investors seeking better returns, potentially supporting demand for U.S. debt if risk perceptions stabilize.
Stock markets have demonstrated resilience, with instances of investors buying on dips, suggesting underlying confidence in U.S. corporate performance or the broader economy's ability to absorb shocks.
Bear Case:
Sharply rising U.S. long-term borrowing costs, with the 10-year Treasury term premium nearing its highest since 2014 and 30-year yields surpassing 5.15%, reflect deep investor anxiety about America's ballooning fiscal deficits and surging debt burden.
Moody's downgrade of U.S. sovereign debt and weak demand in recent Treasury auctions amplify concerns that the nation's fiscal trajectory is unsustainable, potentially leading to persistently higher borrowing costs for the government, businesses, and consumers.
The U.S. House passing a multitrillion-dollar extension of Trump-era tax cuts adds to fears of an unmanageable deficit, which the Congressional Budget Office estimates will significantly increase the national debt.
There are growing signs of foreign investors retreating from U.S. assets due to persistent policy uncertainty and fiscal risks, which could trigger a dangerous feedback loop of rising yields and diminishing demand for U.S. debt.
Turmoil in other major bond markets, such as Japan, where yields are hitting multi-decade highs amid concerns over its own fiscal health and changing monetary policy, could reduce global demand for U.S. Treasuries as domestic Japanese bonds become more attractive or as carry trades unwind.
The traditional status of U.S. Treasuries as the world's safest asset is being challenged, with investors demanding greater compensation for taking on long-term U.S. debt, signaling eroding confidence in U.S. fiscal management.
Sustained high Treasury yields (e.g., 10-year above 4.5%) can pressure stock valuations and create headwinds for the equity market.
Japan's bond market also encountered significant turmoil, as reduced purchases by the Bank of Japan and escalating inflation drove yields to their highest levels since the 1990s. Japanese policymakers warned of potential instability, suggesting government intervention may become necessary if conditions worsen. Strategists highlight that Japan's bond woes could spill over into global markets, notably impacting demand for U.S. Treasuries. Going forward, sustained pressure on bond yields underscores deep-rooted skepticism about the ability of governments, particularly the U.S., to manage their spiraling debts amid higher interest rates. Investors now confront a market in which traditional safe havens are increasingly viewed as risky, raising the stakes for policymakers globally. As fiscal uncertainties deepen, expect the trajectory of U.S. debt costs to play a critical role in shaping investor sentiment in the months ahead.