
Indian stocks set to slip after US attack on Iran's nuclear sites
June 23 (Reuters) - India's shares are set to open lower on Monday, in line with Asian peers, as investors anxiously wait to see if Iran retaliates after the U.S. attacked its key nuclear sites.
The Gift Nifty futures were trading at 25,008, as of 7:51 a.m. IST, indicating that the Nifty 50 (.NSEI), opens new tab will open below the previous close of 25,112.4.
The U.S. attacked key Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend, joining Israel in the biggest Western military action against the Islamic Republic since the 1979 revolution.
Most Asian stocks were lower on the day, with MSCI Asia ex Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS), opens new tab down more than 1%, while the oil prices briefly hit a five-month high.
The concerns that Iran may shut the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 20% of global oil and gas flows, triggered fears of a supply disruption.
Goldman Sachs flagged risks to global energy supply amid the concerns, and said it would lead to significant spikes in oil and natural gas prices.
Higher crude oil prices do not bode well for India, which relies on imports for its energy requirement, as they may fuel inflation and raise the government's fiscal deficit.
The surge in oil prices could also be detrimental to corporate earnings growth as they could raise input costs.
India's benchmark indexes rose about 1.6% last week, driven by gains in financials.
** Information technology companies (.NIFTYIT), opens new tab will be in focus due to concerns over persistent weakness in technology spending as global software major Accenture (ACN.N), opens new tab posted third consecutive quarter of yearly decline in outsourcing orders
** Bharat Electronics (BAJE.NS), opens new tab gets orders worth 5.85 billion rupees ($67.6 million) for fire control and sighting system for missiles, communication equipment, jammers, spares, and services
($1 = 86.5600 Indian rupees)
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Reuters
10 minutes ago
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Rupee volatility, forwards unruffled by Middle East flare up
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The Independent
16 minutes ago
- The Independent
Oil prices soar and Asian markets sink as Trump joins Israel's war on Iran
Oil prices surged to a five-month high and Asian share markets tumbled as global trading resumed for the first time since the US joined Israel in striking Iranian nuclear facilities, jolting investors and raising fears of wider regional instability. Investors were waiting to see how Iran would respond after Tehran vowed that the American attack would have 'everlasting consequences ' and declared that it was keeping all options open. The attack targeted three Iranian nuclear facilities early on Sunday morning. Global crude oil benchmark Brent jumped 2 per cent after rallying as much as 5.7 per cent when the market opened on Monday. The price reached $81.40 per barrel, the highest in five months, before giving up some of the gains. Asian markets reacted cautiously. There was no widespread panic in financial markets as analysts expressed concern about further escalation, which could fuel inflation and affect central bank decisions on interest rates. Japan 's benchmark Nikkei 225 plunged 0.56 per cent, South Korea 's stock index Kospi lost 1.05 per cent and Taiwan 's Taiex fell 1.5 per cent. These countries rely heavily on oil imported through the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil trade route which Iran could shut down in retaliation for the US attack. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 0.14 per cent while mainland China's CSI 300 index dropped 0.4 per cent. The Australian S&P/ASX 200 came down 0.76 per cent. In India, the benchmark Nifty index 50 dropped 0.8 per cent while the Bombay Stock Exchange Sensex fell 0.8 per cent. The US stock futures also tumbled in response to the strikes. S&P 500 futures fell by 0.4 per cent, and Nasdaq futures was down by 0.6 per cent. The US dollar, however, climbed 0.3 per cent. Iran, one of the largest crude producers on the planet, has threatened to shut down the Strait of Hormuz in a move widely seen to hurt the West. A fifth of the world's oil passes through the narrow waters that Iran shares with Oman and the UAE. The Iranian parliament has voted to close the strait and the decision now rests with the Supreme National Security Council, a body led by an appointee of supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Any disruption to supply could significantly impact the global economy, driving up crude prices and dealing a heavy blow to major importers such as China, India, and Japan. 'The situation remains highly fluid and much hinges on whether Tehran opts for a restrained reaction or a more aggressive course of action,' Kristian Kerr, head of macro strategy at LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina, said in a commentary. The US directly joined Israel 's war on Iran by conducting attacks against at least three nuclear facilities early on Sunday morning. Israel had kicked off the conflict on 13 June, launching a series of overnight strikes on nuclear facilities, missile capabilities and air defences. The Israeli attacks have killed nearly 400 people and wounded 3,056, according to the Iranian health ministry. Iran has responded by launching a wave of missile and drone attacks on Israel, inflicting damage to military and civilian infrastructure.


Reuters
an hour ago
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Equity investors seeking clarity should be careful what they wish for
LONDON, June 23 (Reuters) - Financial markets famously hate uncertainty, but getting answers to many of the open questions currently hanging over markets may end up offering investors little comfort. Several recent global developments, including President Donald Trump's April 2 tariff announcement and subsequent 90-day pause as well as the breakout of the Israel-Iran war, have sparked some of the highest levels of uncertainty in decades. If recent U.S. stock market performance is anything to go by, investors seem convinced that everything will work out just fine. Investors will likely get more clarity on several of these issues in the coming weeks, but they may find that this optimism is unwarranted. On July 9, the 90-day pause on Trump's Liberation Day 'reciprocal tariffs' will end, and unless the delay is extended or multiple trade deals are struck, U.S. import tariffs will essentially double from the 10% level today. So far, only the UK has managed to agree on a trade deal, and, even here, there is little clarity about the future of tariffs on UK steel exports. Negotiations with the European Union and Japan have stalled, and the EU has prepared a range of potential retaliatory measures. At the same time, the U.S. Commerce Department is preparing to present its findings on investigations into semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, copper, aircraft, jet engines and a host of other goods, opens new tab. It is widely expected that once these findings are presented, the U.S. government will act quickly to impose additional tariffs or import restrictions. Meanwhile, the Senate is expected to vote on the Trump administration's budget bill in July. The Congressional Budget Office has estimated, opens new tab that in its current form, this bill will add $3.3 trillion in extra debt over the coming decade. Investor confidence in the dollar and the safety of U.S. Treasuries has been shaken recently, partly due to the country's deteriorating fiscal outlook, so this deficit-expanding budget will only add fuel to the fire. And now, the war between Israel and Iran has been thrown into the mix, with the U.S. attacking Iranian nuclear sites on Sunday. Oil prices have increased by roughly 10% since the war broke out, though the price as of June 20 was still in line with the 2024 average. After the U.S. attacks, we could see Iranian retaliation against oil fields in the Middle East or the all-important Strait of Hormuz, which could drive oil prices much higher. With all these moving parts, it is easy to lose sight of what matters right now and what doesn't. While many actions, such as the extension of the 2017 tax cuts in the budget bill, will take years to unfold, the rise in tariff levels could have an immediate impact. The tariffs currently in place (e.g., base tariffs and tariffs on steel, aluminium and autos) could add 0.9 percentage points to U.S. inflation over the next 12 months, as importers are forced to pass tariff costs on to consumers. If there are no additional trade deals struck and tariffs revert to the higher levels announced on Liberation Day, another 0.7 percentage points could be added. And that doesn't even include potential tariffs on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and other goods. The inflation impact from the budget bill will likely be much smaller at roughly 0.1 percentage points over the next 12 months, and an oil price spike to $80 per barrel is apt to have roughly the same impact. Only if oil prices spike to about $100 and remain in that region for the next six months would we have to be seriously worried about an inflation shock from the war in the Middle East. Of course, if all these developments, including a 20% oil price spike, come to pass, U.S. inflation could rise from current levels by up to two percentage points in the next twelve months, dwarfing the likely impact on the UK and euro zone. Despite these concerning figures, U.S. equity investors seem nonplussed. U.S. stock markets, perhaps banking on another TACO moment, have rallied 15% above the level justified by macroeconomic fundamentals, based on my estimates. Over the last 10 years, a deviation of this size was followed by an average decline of 7% in the S&P 500 in the subsequent three months. The gap between performance and fundamentals is smaller in the euro zone and UK, suggesting any mean reversion would be less extreme there. Now, it's possible that everything – from the trade war to the real war – will end well. And stock markets have an uncanny ability to ignore adversity for a long time. However, if much of this uncertainty is resolved negatively, resulting in either higher U.S. inflation or lower growth, U.S. equities' surprising resilience is likely to be challenged. (The views expressed here are those of Joachim Klement, an investment strategist at Panmure Liberum, the UK's largest independent investment bank). Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), opens new tab, opens new tab, your essential new source for global financial commentary. ROI delivers thought-provoking, data-driven analysis of everything from swap rates to soybeans. Markets are moving faster than ever. ROI, opens new tab, opens new tab can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, opens new tab, opens new tab and X., opens new tab