Canadian real estate market entering a ‘transition period,' says CREA
The latest data suggests Canada's housing market may be showing a sense of calm amid an uncertain trade war, and that things may be starting to slowly pick up.
According to the latest report from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), April saw actual home sales fall 9.8 per cent compared to the same period in 2024. 'Actual' in this sense means the data counts the total number of sales recorded in the month.
However, on a seasonally-adjusted basis, the report for April showed national home sales were virtually unchanged from March of this year, with a drop of 0.1 per cent.
This 'seasonally-adjusted' method of analysis is preferred by most economists because it eliminates seasonal variations and highlights the underlying economic picture.
'Sales have been falling rapidly, really since January 20th, when the tariffs were first announced, we could see it in daily data,' says senior economist Shaun Cathcart at CREA.
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'And so as of March, we were 20 per cent down from just November, and that's huge. What stood out in April was that we didn't fall at all, just sort of paused. So in that sense, I guess flat is the new up.'
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The report also shows the number of new properties added to the real estate market fell by one per cent in April compared to March, and the MLS Home Price Index (the average listing price) fell 1.2 per cent.
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Compared to 2024, listing prices fell an average of 3.6 per cent across Canada, and the actual sale price was down 3.9 per cent compared to April of last year.
'So sellers are definitely willing to give a little bit, understanding that it's not the same market that it was four years ago, but it's not to the point where prices are in free fall,' says Cathcart.
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'It's still a negotiation, and I think people are still coming to a mutually agreed upon result at this point.'
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The outlook for the trade war has many buyers and sellers waiting on the sidelines to see how tariffs will develop, as well as interest rates determined by the Bank of Canada which affects mortgage rates for home buyers.
This new data from CREA suggests the real estate market may have already seen the worst of the impacts.
'Right now we're in the transition period between uncertainty and the certainty that this (trade war) is going to be damaging to our economy,' says Cathcart.
'I think that the fear, the risk is if we have massive layoffs, then you'd get a lot of people that have to sell and can't wait and can't negotiate and just have to get rid of that asset. We're not there yet, but certainly that's the risk of this trade war.'
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