Why has a former Tory cabinet minister just defected to Reform?
The decision of David Jones to defect is the latest symptom of that malaise. After 50 years as a card-carrying Conservative, the former Welsh Secretary now says that 'Reform UK is the party that best represents my views'. The ex-MP cites the cost of living, illegal immigration and the 'erosion of our national sovereignty'. Pointedly, he notes 'I wrote to the party chairman in October to inform him of my intention not to renew my membership. I did not receive a reply'. That will resonate with many disgruntled activists.
Critics will jibe that Jones is not the most high-profile of names. This was, as he himself admits, a defection long in the making. Yet it would be foolish to dismiss his decision to switch parties. Jones says he has no plans to stand for election. Instead, he will offer a useful source of advice as Reform tries to find 40 high-calibre Senedd candidates. His years of experience will aid the new party's development of a credible policy platform too. 'He will play a key role in the background', says an aide. 'Frankly, that was needed.'
Jones' decision helps Reform in other ways too. The criticism of Nigel Farage has always been that he is unable to build an effective team around him. With 16,000 members now, those within the Welsh party argue that this is clearly no longer the case. Jones' decision will be taken as a green light by other Tory waverers, with future defections already in the works. He will likely play a role in future broadcast commitments, helping to share the burdens of leadership and prove that Reform is not a one-man band.
Farage is expected to make more barnstorming visits to Wales over the coming months. But members of his team are now looking to 'spread the magic' of the limelight to others over the next 12 months. In England, that will probably be Zia Yusuf and potentially, Lee Anderson, to highlight his journey from the pit to parliament. But in Wales, Jones, as Reform's most senior defector to date, is likely to fill that gap.
The key for Reform will be learning from the mistakes of the Welsh Conservatives. Thus far, the party has stressed its broad base, peeling off Plaid supporters in the West and Labour voters in the south valleys. If they can avoid the splits on devolution that have riven the Tories, Reform UK will be well placed to win 30 seats come next May.
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