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Yahoo
35 minutes ago
- Yahoo
US Treasury Rally Pauses With $125 Billion of Bond Sales Due
(Bloomberg) -- US Treasuries halted Friday's rally as traders braced for a hefty slate of bond sales this week. We Should All Be Biking Along the Beach Seeking Relief From Heat and Smog, Cities Follow the Wind Chicago Curbs Hiring, Travel to Tackle $1 Billion Budget Hole NYC Mayor Adams Gives Bally's Bronx Casino Plan a Second Chance The yield on 10-year debt rose one basis point to 4.22%, trimming the steepest drop in a year on Friday. The two-year yield was steady after falling the most since 2023. The biggest week for sales of longer government bonds since May could weigh on prices as the Treasury offers $125 billion of new three-, 10- and 30-year notes. For now that's put on hold Friday's surge, which was triggered by surprisingly weak US jobs data and fresh speculation Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will be replaced by someone more willing to aggressively cut interest rates. Money markets assign around an 85% chance the Fed will lower rates by a quarter-point in September, according to swaps tied to policy-meeting dates. While that's down from Friday's peak of 90%, it's much higher than the 40% anticipated before the payroll data was published. 'Markets are signaling that the Fed will have to look through any tariff-induced price rises and that a September cut is imminent,' ING Groep NV strategists including Benjamin Schroeder wrote in a note. 'The curve can steepen significantly more from here if that narrative strengthens.' The market ructions at the end of the week came as traders reacted to the jobs-data shock. After Wednesday's Fed decision to hold interest-rates steady, they'd been cautious about betting on more cuts, especially after comments from Powell citing continued uncertainty around tariffs and inflation. Adding to Friday's turnaround was the early exit of Fed Governor Adriana Kugler — potentially giving Trump the opportunity to appoint a low-rates loyalist instead. Trump said Powell should follow Kugler's example and resign, ratcheting up his feud with the central bank chair. The bond rally has turned into a payoff for some investors who had bet the gap between short- and long-dated debt would widen. The yield premium on 30-year notes over five-year counterparts jumped 14 basis points Friday — the most since the 2023 banking crisis — to 106 basis points, where it remains currently. Yields on German and UK peers fell four basis points to 2.64% and one basis point to 4.52% respectively on Monday. (Updates yield levels) How Podcast-Obsessed Tech Investors Made a New Media Industry Russia Builds a New Web Around Kremlin's Handpicked Super App AI Flight Pricing Can Push Travelers to the Limit of Their Ability to Pay Everyone Loves to Hate Wind Power. Scotland Found a Way to Make It Pay Off What's Really Behind Those Rosy GDP Numbers? ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Fox News
37 minutes ago
- Fox News
Democrat urges investigation into Trump's firing of BLS chief
FOX Business' Charles Payne joins 'Fox & Friends' to discuss why he is optimistic about the markets despite new tariff rates, calls for an investigation into President Donald Trump's decision to fire the BLS chief and more.
Miami Herald
11 hours ago
- Miami Herald
Bonus for the economy: lower oil, gas prices ahead
When it comes to economic reports, that was some week last week. The Federal Reserve didn't cut its key interest rate. The jobs report was weak. Surveys suggested consumers weren't as freaked about the economy as they had been in April. Don't miss the move: Subscribe to TheStreet's free daily newsletter The president, however, imposed higher tariffs on goods imported from a number of countries. The stock market engaged in some wild gyrations, ending the week lower, but, at least, bond yields came down. In part because there aren't many big economic reports ahead this week, it's a good time to take stock of what's happening in and around the economy. Related: Stocks will try to recover their mojo this week Maybe you missed this one, but members of the OPEC + countries may boost crude oil production to boost revenue. The operative phrase is "may boost" production. It was clear Saturday but not as clear on Sunday. Brent crude, the global benchmark settled at $69.67 per barrel and has been slowly declining since peaking on Jan. 15 at about $82 a barrel. The 11 OPEC+ members include Russia, Mexico, Oman, Kazakhstan and Malaysia. Assuming output is boosted, global oil prices - and gasoline prices - should come down, just in time for autumn when summer vacations in the northern hemisphere end and drive less. And the result: Prices come down. AAA said Sunday the national average price of gasoline was $3.15 a gallon, off slightly from Saturday and down 9.4% from a year ago. More oil supply on the market won't do much for energy stocks. The Energy Select Sector SPDR exchange-traded fund (XLE ) is off 9.1% since peaking at $94.21 on April 2. Bloomberg/Getty Images Donald Trump may seethe every time he sees Jerome Powell speak on television, but he will soon be influencing a big chunk of the seven-member Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Fed governor Adriana Kugler announced Friday she's resigning Aug. 8 to return to a teaching job at Georgetown University after just two years as a Fed board member. So, the president gets to nominate someone more to his liking - that is, cut rates when he says cut. Related: Veteran trader posts a major warning for the stock market Trump appointed Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman as Fed governors - as well as Powell. They dissented in the vote not to cut rates last week. Powell, a Republican, was a Barack Obama appointee to the Fed. Trump elevated him to chairman in 2018, replacing Janet Yellen. Joe Biden nominated Powell to a second four-year term in 2021. Powell's term as chairman ends in May. Trump would prefer to replace him sooner. Powell would not support the president's demand for deep cuts to the Fed's key federal funds rate, still at 4.25% to 4.5%. The rate forms the foundation of short-term U.S. interest rates. Potential successors include Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor; Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, and, possibly, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Bloomberg/Getty Images The furor over the firing of Erika McEntarfer as commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics may take a little time to fade away. The president fired McEntarfer Friday because the BLS issued revisions to earlier jobs reports that drastically cut down how many jobs were created in May and June. The president said McEntarfer rigged the report to make him look bad, but offered no evidence. Related: Ford CEO predicts huge industry shift after latest tariff developments How the monthly jobs report is produced could use some clarification. The BLS works on a jobs report three times: when it's issued, and each of the next two months. The two revisions reflect that more data on a given month is collected, and the original numbers are revised. The reason for the revisions is the first report is, at best, a guestimate with data collected from 60,000 businesses and other employers and households by BLS staff by phone and, more lately, online. Go here for a description of the process. Response rates have been falling in recent years from as high as 90% in 2013 to 67% in July. There is a fourth revision in the next year once year-end state tax data is collected and matched up with BLS data. It takes so long to get all the data right because of staffing shortages and the time demands of many employers. And, of course, mistakes are made. McEntarfer was appointed to the job during the Biden Administration and easily won Senate confirmation. The next BLS commissioner will be a Trump loyalist. More Economic and market analysis: Tariffs cause August grocery price surge: Five foods hit hardestMassive Jerome Powell Error Roils the MarketFormer Federal Reserve official sends bold message on 'regime change'The market decline has not run its course The week after the jobs report sees relatively few economic reports. Here's a rundown of what's coming. Monday: Factory orders, with estimates projecting a decline. Tuesday: U.S. Trade deficit. The estimate is a $61 billion positive. Two reports on services ordered by purchasing managers will come from Standard & Poor's and the Institute for Supply Management. Both are expected to be slightly positive. Wednesday: None. But Fed governor Lisa Cook and Susan Collins, president of the Boston Federal Reserve Bank expected to speak in the afternoon. Thursday: The weekly report on initial jobless claims plus a report on productivity and unit labor costs. All from the BLS. The Federal Reserve's monthly Consumer Credit Outstanding. 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