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Hans India
11-05-2025
- Business
- Hans India
As expected, Trump tariffs taking a big toll on US economic growth
In tune with the expectations, the Trump tariffs are already impacting US GDP growth which was negative in the last quarter. There is a fear that if the tariffs on imports from China, which is a major supplier of several items to USA, remains at the current high tariffs of more than 245% level even as there are no signs of trade discussion happening between the two major countries then this is likely to result in USA consumers postponing their purchases. This is certain to disrupt the supply chain and hit the US economy even more. The question is also whether Washington will be able to finalise trade discussions within the 90 days pause and whether the more than 90 countries, which have approached for trade talks, will be in a position to get a mutually acceptable tariff levels. Are these countries willing to make compromises amid the current trade and non-trade barriers, particularly in areas like agriculture and the dairy sector, among others, which may hit domestic manufacturers in case any concession are made? Donald Trump has come to the understanding that pain points will remain until these issues are sorted out as he was expecting only short-term pain. In fact, he went to the extent of stating that American children will have to be content with a mere two toys as against having the existing level of 30 toys as the cost of toys at the current level of tariffs will be beyond comprehension. This statement is an indication that luxury and discretionary spending has to be postponed in terms of affordability. The other aspect is that inflation may rise and the demand vs. supply factors will result in a higher inflation. There is also a risk of higher unemployment and lesser absorption of labour due to reduced economic activities. As US Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell had indicated earlier the impact of US tariffs are much larger than earlier expected as regards inflation and employment, which, incidentally, are two factors on which the Fed Reserve will bank upon for their rate decision considerations. It is to be watched how they will view these aspects during their crucial policy meeting on Wednesday. One has to wait for the meeting's outcome as the decisions that are arrived at will one way or the other have a bearing on markets and its own economy that is already showing signs of slowdown. Moreover, there are bleak chances of any reduction in interest rates. Although, Trump wishes to run a low interest rates regime, one has to see if Powell will oblige given the country's current negative growth of 0.3 per cent. The latest PCE index (personal consumption expenditure index- measures consumer inflation) for Q1 shows a rise of 3.6 per cent, the highest since Q1 2023. Of course this does not mean that US is heading towards stagflation. While hints of recession are being aired, JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs have warned that there is a chance of 25 per cent, 40 per cent and 60 per cent that US is staring at recession. Should this calamity happen, then one dreads to think of the impending impact on global growth, global equity markets and trade. Meanwhile, a good augury is that based on the first quarter results the US has not stepped into recession and it may have several revisions on both the sides. Moreover, recession will only crop up when there are two consecutive quarters of contraction in economic activity. But it is sure that there may be a slowdown in US GDP growth. IMF has downgraded its forecast by 0.9 per cent point to 1.8 per cent in 2025, a full percentage point down from the 2.8 per cent growth in 2024 and by 0.4 per cent point to 1.7 per cent in 2026. The reasons that have been cited are policy uncertainty and trade tensions. As most countries depend on their major trading partners like US, this will affect their domestic GDP growth depending upon the extent of their connectedness to US demand as regards exports. The slowing down of consumption and investment by US will affect the global equity market. The dollar index, which recently showed signs of weakness, is currently nearer to 100 as it has gained as the latest job report signalled a cooling but still resilient labour market. According to Trade Economist global macro model and analysis expectations, the US dollar is expected to trade at 100.78 by the end of this quarter. The bond markets in US have already priced in concerns that these trade policies could slow the economy. The current 10 year US treasury is at 4.308 per cent. The market is expecting a favourable policy from the US Federal Reserve Governor on Wednesday, especially if he will factor the negative growth of Q1 as the market expects 100 basis reduction in US reference rates in the current year. Will there be a fundamental shift in the future trade order and what are the likely implications on global trade and world economic growth will have to be weighed in. These will definitely have short term impact on the growth of almost all countries. Markets like equity and bond will show signs of volatility. Hopefully, these are temporary impacts and solutions will be arrived at and there would be amicable settlements of the existing trade uncertainties. If things work out in this way, one is sure that the global growth impact will be restricted and would be at bare minimum.
News.com.au
22-04-2025
- Business
- News.com.au
Lunch Wrap: Stock markets on edge again after Trump's latest serve at Powell
Trump sprays Powell again, sinking Wall Street Gold and Aussie dollar pop Yancoal warns of rocky road, Perenti pulls out of Botswana The ASX copped a bit of a knock early on, but by lunch it was pretty much treading water. Overnight, Wall Street had a rough session thanks to a fresh spray from US President Donald Trump, who took aim once again at Jerome Powell, the head of the Fed Reserve. Trump is apparently looking into whether he can legally fire Powell altogether. He called Powell a 'loser' and demanded immediate interest rate cuts, claiming inflation was basically gone. ″'Preemptive Cuts' in Interest Rates are being called for by many,' Trump growled on Truth Social. "There can be a SLOWING of the economy unless Mr. Too Late, a major loser, lowers interest rates, NOW." That sent a chill through the markets, immediately dragging down US stocks, bonds and the greenback. The S&P 500 dropped 2.36%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq shed 2.55%, and Tesla got belted 6% ahead of its earnings release this week. 'If you actually did try to remove the Federal Reserve chairman, I think you would see a severe reaction in markets with yields higher, dollars lower and equities selling off,' said Krishna Guha at Evercore ISI. Trump's latest outburst came just after the Fed boss warned last week a trade war could push prices higher, which is why he's keeping rates steady for now. It also came after Beijing warned that China will hit back at any countries that sign trade deals with Trump. Meanwhile, gold jumped past US$3400 an ounce to a new record, smashing through its previous (real) high from the inflation-rattled 1980s. Elsewhere, the US dollar copped a belting, sinking to its lowest point since 2023. That gave the Aussie dollar a lift, pushing it above 64 US cents this morning. Iron ore has also clawed back some ground, up by 2%, helped along by the softer US dollar and stronger than expected Chinese steel output. Back home, there's a bit to get stuck into on the ASX this morning. Coal giant Yancoal Australia (ASX:YAL) has flagged a rocky road ahead after reporting a 19% drop in quarterly sales. Shares fell 1.25%. 'The coal sector is facing a weak pricing environment as a result of strong supply, and subdued short-term demand in both thermal and metallurgical coal markets,' said Yancoal's acting CEO, Ning Yue. Deep Yellow (ASX:DYL) has hit pause on its Namibian uranium mine, saying current prices aren't enough to justify charging ahead with full development, though it will keep pushing forward on early infrastructure build. Bellevue Gold (ASX:BGL) said it has closed out $110.8 million worth of near-term gold hedge contracts after a cap raise last week. That means almost all of its production through to the end of 2025 will now be sold at spot prices, which should give it a nice boost in free cash and fatten up the balance sheet, the company said. Shares were still down 1%. And mining services company Perenti Global (ASX:PRN) is pulling the plug on its six-year copper gig in Botswana, saying the numbers just aren't adding up. The company will wrap things up at the Khoemacau copper mine, with its underground arm Barminco set to flog off the gear to the client, MMG, when the contract ends on 30 June. PRN's shares also slipped 1%. ASX SMALL CAP WINNERS Here are the best performing ASX small cap stocks for April 22 : Security Description Last % Volume MktCap JLL Jindalee Lithium Ltd 0.350 37% 663,729 $18,765,921 CUL Cullen Resources 0.004 33% 2,975,789 $2,080,206 OLI Oliver'S Real Food 0.004 33% 52,134 $1,622,196 SRN Surefire Rescs NL 0.004 33% 157,125 $7,248,923 TAS Tasman Resources Ltd 0.004 33% 124,473 $2,415,749 SMM Somerset Minerals 0.012 33% 717,386 $2,357,032 AUR Auris Minerals Ltd 0.005 25% 199,210 $1,906,504 CAV Carnavale Resources 0.005 25% 10,000 $16,360,874 YAR Yari Minerals Ltd 0.005 25% 416,946 $1,929,431 SHP South Harz Potash 0.006 20% 500,000 $5,412,894 SKK Stakk Limited 0.006 20% 165,008 $10,375,398 TMS Tennant Minerals Ltd 0.006 20% 234,748 $4,779,452 ADG Adelong Gold Limited 0.007 17% 28,820,802 $8,384,917 PSL Paterson Resources 0.007 17% 280,000 $2,736,227 WIN WIN Metals 0.026 16% 3,994,995 $12,101,278 ATH Alterity Therap Ltd 0.008 14% 3,163,507 $63,891,595 EE1 Earths Energy Ltd 0.008 14% 200,000 $3,709,750 FUL Fulcrum Lithium 0.080 14% 22,550 $5,285,000 AVM Advance Metals Ltd 0.054 13% 17,440,551 $10,273,672 CXU Cauldron Energy Ltd 0.009 13% 30,000 $11,691,237 GBZ GBM Rsources Ltd 0.009 13% 258,850 $9,368,560 H2G Greenhy2 Limited 0.009 13% 161,194 $4,785,473 SHN Sunshine Metals Ltd 0.009 13% 4,571,540 $15,874,492 OCT Octava Minerals 0.037 12% 1,122 $2,013,307 Jindalee Lithium's (ASX:JLL) McDermitt lithium project over in the US just scored a spot on the FAST-41 list, a federal initiative that helps fast-track big-name projects through the red tape. It's one of only ten resources projects nationwide to make the cut, showing just how important it's becoming for America's energy and mineral security. Being on the Permitting Dashboard means more visibility, better coordination between government agencies, and quicker decisions to help get things moving. Somerset Minerals (ASX:SMM) has locked in $2.4 million from investors to kick off its first drill campaign at the Coppermine Project in Canada. It's planning to sink around 1500 metres of drilling into the Coronation target from early July, chasing high-grade copper and silver hits, including past rock chip samples with up to 45% copper. Permits are nearly sorted, with final ticks expected in a week or two, and the project itself still needs shareholder approval next week to go ahead. Prospech (ASX:PRS) has nearly doubled the size of its rare earths resource at the Korsnäs project in Finland, with the updated estimate now sitting at 13.5 million tonnes at just over 1% TREO. It comes off the back of fresh drilling this year plus sampling of old cores from the 50s through to the 70s. PRS said the new numbers confirmed Korsnäs as one of Europe's more exciting rare earths plays still in the early stages. ASX SMALL CAP LOSERS Here are the worst performing ASX small cap stocks for April 22 : Code Name Price % Change Volume Market Cap AOA Ausmon Resorces 0.001 -50% 28,000 $2,622,427 TEG Triangle Energy Ltd 0.003 -40% 47,908,516 $10,446,170 SRL Sunrise 0.460 -35% 383,058 $64,061,524 1TT Thrive Tribe Tech 0.001 -33% 2,000,000 $3,047,585 BUY Bounty Oil & Gas NL 0.002 -33% 2,197,434 $4,684,416 EEL Enrg Elements Ltd 0.001 -33% 15,912,733 $4,880,668 CRR Critical Resources 0.003 -25% 164,878 $9,856,885 ERA Energy Resources 0.002 -25% 1,612,056 $810,792,482 TFL Tasfoods Ltd 0.003 -25% 5,711 $1,748,382 VEN Vintage Energy 0.003 -25% 405,934 $7,155,687 CCO The Calmer Co Int 0.004 -20% 22,000 $12,769,356 EVR Ev Resources Ltd 0.004 -20% 78,000 $9,929,183 NAE New Age Exploration 0.004 -20% 7,753,858 $13,296,995 TOU Tlou Energy Ltd 0.018 -18% 70,820 $28,568,855 VHM Vhmlimited 0.315 -17% 342,658 $82,516,982 VMM Viridismining 0.295 -17% 878,913 $30,264,823 5GG Pentanet 0.035 -17% 356,265 $18,193,210 ANX Anax Metals Ltd 0.005 -17% 100,000 $5,296,845 IFG Infocusgroup Hldltd 0.005 -17% 485,256 $1,504,188 LU7 Lithium Universe Ltd 0.005 -17% 4,233,656 $4,715,878 CCR Credit Clear 0.185 -16% 161,352 $93,422,701 SNS Sensen Networks Ltd 0.032 -16% 468,365 $30,135,424 SKY SKY Metals Ltd 0.043 -16% 86,343 $36,245,861 BRX Belararoxlimited 0.115 -15% 95,006 $21,130,518 IN CASE YOU MISSED IT Neurizon Therapeutics (ASX:NUZ) has brought 20 years' experience in accounting, finance, tax, cross-border mergers and acquisitions, procurement, share services and government and industry relations on board in the form of incoming chief financial officer Dan O'Connel. O'Connel previously served as CFO for Newcrest Mining until it was acquired by gold mining giant Newmont Corporation. Preparations for an environmental impact study are underway at the El Zorro gold project in Chile, as Tesoro Gold (ASX:TSO) moves to secure the necessary permits to begin construction and operations at the gold mine. The company estimates the permitting process will take about 24 months. A second drilling rig is poised to begin work at the Develin Creek project, where QMines (ASX:QML) will soon begin RC drilling at the Sulphide City deposit. The drilling forms part of a 10,000-metre campaign designed to expand the 4.2Mt resource base at Develin. At Stockhead, we tell it like it is. While Neurizon Therapeutics, Tesoro Gold and QMines are Stockhead advertisers, they did not sponsor this article. This article does not constitute financial product advice. You should consider obtaining independent advice before making any financial decisions.
Fox News
16-04-2025
- Business
- Fox News
Easter egg hunt at safari park draws in eager participants
All times eastern Making Money with Charles Payne FOX News Radio Live Channel Coverage WATCH LIVE: Fed Reserve Chair Powell delivers economic outlook
