US Dollar weakens, Euro and Pound surge: What it means for your money

Business Standard

4 days ago

The US Dollar is losing steam, setting the stage for a global currency realignment led by a resurgent Euro and British Pound. According to Emkay Wealth Management's latest currency report, persistent uncertainty over US interest rate cuts and tariff policies is eroding dollar strength—paving the way for other major currencies to gain ground.
Why the Dollar is losing steam
Two key factors are eroding the dollar's strength:
Lingering uncertainty around US interest rate cuts
Speculation of new trade tariffs, which could reduce global investor appetite for dollar-denominated assets.
While the Federal Reserve continues to tread carefully, markets are already pricing in future rate cuts. As a result, the Dollar Index — which measures the dollar against a basket of major currencies — has softened.
Euro and Pound Rally: Backed by Bold Moves
In contrast, the Euro and British Pound have emerged as the strongest gainers.
The European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BOE) executed early and aggressive rate cuts, boosting investor confidence.
The EU's recent uptick in defense spending, from 2% to a striking 6% of GDP (announced at the Munich Summit), also signaled economic resilience and geopolitical assertiveness.
These developments have made the Euro and Pound more attractive for global funds — pulling capital away from the US.
"Leading the rally are the Euro and British Pound, which have gained ground thanks to timely and aggressive rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BOE). These moves, combined with signs of economic recovery in the EU and a bold increase in defense spending—from 2% to 6% of GDP as declared at the Munich Summit—have boosted market confidence in the sustained strength of these currencies," noted the report.
Where Does the Indian Rupee Stand?
The Indian Rupee (INR) has shown short-term strength, pulling back from a low of ₹87/USD.
This rebound is fueled by improved trade data and hopes of foreign capital inflows, particularly once US rates begin to ease.
However, Emkay warns that the Rupee's long-term trajectory remains weak, unless structural reforms and persistent capital inflows materialize.
"In the Asian context, the Indian Rupee has shown short-term strength, recovering from a recent high of ₹87. While this rebound is partly supported by improved trade data, its durability hinges on the return of foreign capital—expected once US interest rates begin to ease. Still, the broader trend for the Rupee remains tilted towards long-term weakness," the report said.
As the year unfolds, global markets will continue to track the Fed's signals and geopolitical shifts. But one thing is becoming increasingly apparent: the Dollar may no longer be the sole anchor in the global currency narrative of 2025.
What This Means for Indian Investors If you're wondering how this affects your wallet or investment strategy, here's the breakdown:
Investing Overseas?
Now may be a good time to look at Euro or Pound-denominated assets. With these currencies strengthening and US dollar assets softening, diversifying beyond dollar-based investments could yield better returns in 2025.
Planning a Euro Trip?
Bad news: A stronger Euro and Pound may make international travel to Europe or the UK more expensive in rupee terms. Booking early or locking in rates can help mitigate some costs.
What to Watch in the Second Half of 2025
US Fed policy signals on inflation and tariffs
Emerging market capital flows, especially into India
Geopolitical shifts in Europe and Asia