4 Things to watch in Thai political crisis after prime minister suspended
The Constitutional Court has suspended her over an ethics probe that could disqualify her as prime minister. The move comes as her government faces coalition infighting, U.S. trade talks, a border dispute with Cambodia and a sluggish economy that has lagged behind most of its Southeast Asian peers.
At the heart of the crisis is Paetongtarn's leaked phone call with Cambodian strongman Hun Sen, which has fueled public outrage and could bring down the government before the court rules.
Here are four things to watch ahead of the ruling as the crisis unfolds:
Coalition collapse
Paetongtarn has been left with a wobbly coalition after the exit of Bhumjaithai Party, which was her biggest ally with 69 lawmakers in the 495-member House of Representatives. The other nine parties in the coalition have pledged to stay with Paetongtarn's ruling Pheu Thai Party - for now.
If any more parties decide to leave after the court's decision, the coalition - now holding about 255 seats - could quickly collapse. Five of the remaining parties each have at least nine lawmakers, enough to shift the balance and push the government into a minority.
"Political pressure will mount on coalition partners to distance themselves from what appears to be a sinking ship," said Napon Jatusripitak, acting coordinator of the Thailand Studies Program at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. "This pressure will only intensify as street protests grow over the coming weeks."
A coalition collapse would strip the government of its mandate. Even if it remains in office, it would likely face legislative gridlock, unable to pass new laws.
Paetongtarn was sworn in as the Minister of Culture on Thursday, as part of a cabinet reshuffle announced hours before her suspension. The move, which also saw 13 other ministers take oath, allows her to attend ministerial meetings while awaiting the court's final ruling.
Dissolution of parliament
A political stalemate is especially concerning as the National Assembly prepares to debate key economic bills, including the next fiscal budget for the year that begins in October. If the government fails to pass the budget, the prime minister typically dissolves the parliament to trigger a new election.
An election must be held within 45 to 60 days of a royal endorsement to dissolve parliament. But forming a new government could take months due to coalition talks ahead of a prime ministerial vote.
While suspended, Paetongtarn cannot exercise her authority to dissolve parliament. That power now lies with acting leader Phumtham Wechayachai, who was sworn in as a deputy prime minister and Interior Minister.
The opposition People's Party has been calling for this scenario, saying it is the only way to stop the crisis from spinning out of control and precipitating military intervention.
Escalating protests
More than 20,000 people rallied in Bangkok in late June to demand Paetongtarn's resignation - the largest such turnout in years. The 12-hour protest was largely peaceful and orderly. Many of the organizers were longtime critics of the Shinawatra family.
Some protest leaders were also involved in demonstrations that paved the way for military coups in 2006, which toppled Paetongtarn's father Thaksin Shinawatra, and in 2014, ending Yingluck Shinawatra's government.
Last month's protesters echoed earlier movements against past Shinawatra governments, such as cardboard signs saying "traitor," the color yellow and the use of the Thai national flag.
Although the protest leaders officially deny inviting a military coup, some of them have suggested that they would find it acceptable if it happens on its own course.
Tension with Cambodia
Paetongtarn said her contentious phone call with Hun Sen was meant to ease tensions between Thailand and Cambodia as both sides imposed tit-for-tat trade and travel restrictions, following an exchange of gunfire on May 28 near the disputed Chong Bok region that left one Cambodian soldier dead.
The situation worsened after Cambodia petitioned the International Court of Justice to rule on four territorial disputes, including Chong Bok. Cambodia has pushed for third-party involvement, but Thailand prefers bilateral talks and does not recognize the ICJ's mandatory jurisdiction.
The conflict has also spilled online. Hun Sen posted the phone recording that put Paetongtarn under fire on Facebook, while his son, Prime Minister Hun Manet, regularly criticized Thai border policies on social media.
Last week, Hun Sen threatened to "expose" Thaksin, with whom he had enjoyed close personal relations for decades, and went on to call for a leadership change in Thailand, saying he doubted Paetongtarn's ability to resolve the escalating conflict.
Seen as a political wild card, Hun Sen has escalated tensions between two of the region's most prominent dynasties - the Huns and the Shinawatras - and stoked speculation of what he may have in store next.
----------
(Updates with Paetongtarn's swearing-in as minister in ninth paragraph.)
Copyright (C) 2025, Tribune Content Agency, LLC. Portions copyrighted by the respective providers.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Miami Herald
9 hours ago
- Miami Herald
4 Things to watch in Thai political crisis after prime minister suspended
Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra faces an uncertain future and could become the third leader from the Shinawatra clan member to lose power over the past 19 years. The Constitutional Court has suspended her over an ethics probe that could disqualify her as prime minister. The move comes as her government faces coalition infighting, U.S. trade talks, a border dispute with Cambodia and a sluggish economy that has lagged behind most of its Southeast Asian peers. At the heart of the crisis is Paetongtarn's leaked phone call with Cambodian strongman Hun Sen, which has fueled public outrage and could bring down the government before the court rules. Here are four things to watch ahead of the ruling as the crisis unfolds: Coalition collapse Paetongtarn has been left with a wobbly coalition after the exit of Bhumjaithai Party, which was her biggest ally with 69 lawmakers in the 495-member House of Representatives. The other nine parties in the coalition have pledged to stay with Paetongtarn's ruling Pheu Thai Party - for now. If any more parties decide to leave after the court's decision, the coalition - now holding about 255 seats - could quickly collapse. Five of the remaining parties each have at least nine lawmakers, enough to shift the balance and push the government into a minority. "Political pressure will mount on coalition partners to distance themselves from what appears to be a sinking ship," said Napon Jatusripitak, acting coordinator of the Thailand Studies Program at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. "This pressure will only intensify as street protests grow over the coming weeks." A coalition collapse would strip the government of its mandate. Even if it remains in office, it would likely face legislative gridlock, unable to pass new laws. Paetongtarn was sworn in as the Minister of Culture on Thursday, as part of a cabinet reshuffle announced hours before her suspension. The move, which also saw 13 other ministers take oath, allows her to attend ministerial meetings while awaiting the court's final ruling. Dissolution of parliament A political stalemate is especially concerning as the National Assembly prepares to debate key economic bills, including the next fiscal budget for the year that begins in October. If the government fails to pass the budget, the prime minister typically dissolves the parliament to trigger a new election. An election must be held within 45 to 60 days of a royal endorsement to dissolve parliament. But forming a new government could take months due to coalition talks ahead of a prime ministerial vote. While suspended, Paetongtarn cannot exercise her authority to dissolve parliament. That power now lies with acting leader Phumtham Wechayachai, who was sworn in as a deputy prime minister and Interior Minister. The opposition People's Party has been calling for this scenario, saying it is the only way to stop the crisis from spinning out of control and precipitating military intervention. Escalating protests More than 20,000 people rallied in Bangkok in late June to demand Paetongtarn's resignation - the largest such turnout in years. The 12-hour protest was largely peaceful and orderly. Many of the organizers were longtime critics of the Shinawatra family. Some protest leaders were also involved in demonstrations that paved the way for military coups in 2006, which toppled Paetongtarn's father Thaksin Shinawatra, and in 2014, ending Yingluck Shinawatra's government. Last month's protesters echoed earlier movements against past Shinawatra governments, such as cardboard signs saying "traitor," the color yellow and the use of the Thai national flag. Although the protest leaders officially deny inviting a military coup, some of them have suggested that they would find it acceptable if it happens on its own course. Tension with Cambodia Paetongtarn said her contentious phone call with Hun Sen was meant to ease tensions between Thailand and Cambodia as both sides imposed tit-for-tat trade and travel restrictions, following an exchange of gunfire on May 28 near the disputed Chong Bok region that left one Cambodian soldier dead. The situation worsened after Cambodia petitioned the International Court of Justice to rule on four territorial disputes, including Chong Bok. Cambodia has pushed for third-party involvement, but Thailand prefers bilateral talks and does not recognize the ICJ's mandatory jurisdiction. The conflict has also spilled online. Hun Sen posted the phone recording that put Paetongtarn under fire on Facebook, while his son, Prime Minister Hun Manet, regularly criticized Thai border policies on social media. Last week, Hun Sen threatened to "expose" Thaksin, with whom he had enjoyed close personal relations for decades, and went on to call for a leadership change in Thailand, saying he doubted Paetongtarn's ability to resolve the escalating conflict. Seen as a political wild card, Hun Sen has escalated tensions between two of the region's most prominent dynasties - the Huns and the Shinawatras - and stoked speculation of what he may have in store next. ---------- (Updates with Paetongtarn's swearing-in as minister in ninth paragraph.) Copyright (C) 2025, Tribune Content Agency, LLC. Portions copyrighted by the respective providers.
Yahoo
10 hours ago
- Yahoo
Trump's Vietnam Deal Stokes Asia Concern as Trade Deadline Looms
(Bloomberg) -- Vietnam's trade deal with the US is a wake-up call for Asian governments grappling with the reality that higher tariffs are here to stay. NYC Commutes Resume After Midtown Bus Terminal Crash Chaos Struggling Downtowns Are Looking to Lure New Crowds Massachusetts to Follow NYC in Making Landlords Pay Broker Fees What Gothenburg Got Out of Congestion Pricing Foreign Buyers Swoop on Cape Town Homes, Pricing Out Locals US President Donald Trump announced a 20% tariff on imports from Vietnam, and a 40% rate for goods transshipped through the country — a move mostly targeted at curbing Vietnam's trade with China. In return, Vietnam is slashing import taxes on US goods to zero. Although the US duties are lower than the 46% the US president had threatened to impose on Vietnam, the concessions made by the Southeast Asian nation and the higher rate for goods re-routed through the country have raised concerns in Asian capitals. Officials in New Delhi, who are racing to clinch their own deal before a July 9 deadline when higher US tariffs kick in, say they view the Vietnam deal with a fair bit of caution. India had been seeking an exemption on reciprocal tariffs in its negotiations with the Trump administration, and Vietnam settling for a 20% rate was a worry, one of the officials said, asking not to be identified because the discussions are private. India had also been pushing back against US demands to impose a higher tariff on goods with a larger proportion of foreign components, another official said. The Vietnam deal suggests the US will play hardball in its negotiations with trading partners like India. New Delhi is seeking clarity on what kind of goods would carry higher levies based on foreign content, although it doesn't expect to be hit with a rate as high as Vietnam, officials said. India's Ministry of Commerce and Industry didn't immediately respond to an email seeking comment. Asian nations like Vietnam and India are heavily reliant on China for imports and count the US as their biggest export markets. The Lowy Institute think tank estimated that 28% of Vietnamese exports to the US were made up of Chinese content in 2022, up from 9% in 2018. In India's electronic component sector, China accounted for more than 60% of the industry's imports in 2024, according to an industry report. In the negotiations, the US had been pushing Vietnam to get tougher on trade fraud and do more to prevent Chinese goods from being rerouted and repackaged through the country. Trump officials have also demanded India tighten rules-of-origin requirements in order to restrict Chinese goods being shipped to the US via India. In Thailand, the Vietnam agreement was viewed as a sign of things to come. The tiered tariff system 'isn't just about taxes,' said Santitarn Sathirathai, an economist and member of the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee. 'It reflects that the new world of trade may reward countries that can actually create value domestically,' he said. That means countries like Thailand — which is also under the spotlight as a transshipment hub for Chinese goods — will need to invest more and expand production bases. 'The Vietnam-US deal is not the end, but the beginning of a new approach to trade,' Santitarn said in a post on Facebook. To ease trade tensions with the US, several Asian countries have vowed to buy more American goods to curb their trade surpluses with the US. Indonesia announced Thursday it will sign trade and investment pacts worth $34 billion with the US as part of its effort to secure a tariff deal. The US had no concerns about transshipment involving Indonesia and hadn't broached the topic in trade discussions, unlike in Vietnam, Coordinating Economic Minister Airlangga Hartarto told reporters. China's Interests Much is still unknown about the Vietnam deal, including which goods would be deemed transshipped and carry a higher tariff rate. It's also unclear how China would respond to the US's measures to curb its trade with Asian nations. On Thursday in Beijing, a spokeswoman for China's Ministry of Commerce indicated the country will firmly protect its interests. 'My feeling is the Chinese will retaliate,' Abhisit Vejjajiva, Thailand's former prime minister from 2008 to 2011, said in an interview. 'The Chinese might say to Vietnam that, 'well, unless you're offering us the same deal with the US, we'll also charge you more tariffs,'' he said. 'I think China will need to do that because otherwise it cannot deter the other countries from doing this kind of deal with the US.' Singapore's Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong said Southeast Asian nations will need to accept that higher US tariffs are here to stay and that businesses should expect greater scrutiny of their supply chains going forward. 'No Choice' 'To benefit from lower tariffs – especially in sectors such as steel, autos and in time to come, pharmaceuticals – companies must be prepared to meet the US' conditions over their production and supply chains, even if these requirements come at a much higher cost,' he said. Kok Ping Soon, chief executive officer of the Singapore Business Federation, said firms will need to adjust to higher costs. 'If the US is going to impose a set of conditions that you have to fulfill in order to sell to the US, then you're almost asking companies who operate a plant to bifurcate the plant,' he said in an interview on the sidelines of the Asean Conference 2025 in Singapore. 'It just adds cost. But if your destination market is the US, you may have no choice but to do that.' --With assistance from Suttinee Yuvejwattana. SNAP Cuts in Big Tax Bill Will Hit a Lot of Trump Voters Too America's Top Consumer-Sentiment Economist Is Worried How to Steal a House China's Homegrown Jewelry Superstar Pistachios Are Everywhere Right Now, Not Just in Dubai Chocolate ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
10 hours ago
- Yahoo
Trump's Vietnam Deal Stokes Asia Concern as Trade Deadline Looms
(Bloomberg) -- Vietnam's trade deal with the US is a wake-up call for Asian governments grappling with the reality that higher tariffs are here to stay. NYC Commutes Resume After Midtown Bus Terminal Crash Chaos Struggling Downtowns Are Looking to Lure New Crowds Massachusetts to Follow NYC in Making Landlords Pay Broker Fees What Gothenburg Got Out of Congestion Pricing Foreign Buyers Swoop on Cape Town Homes, Pricing Out Locals US President Donald Trump announced a 20% tariff on imports from Vietnam, and a 40% rate for goods transshipped through the country — a move mostly targeted at curbing Vietnam's trade with China. In return, Vietnam is slashing import taxes on US goods to zero. Although the US duties are lower than the 46% the US president had threatened to impose on Vietnam, the concessions made by the Southeast Asian nation and the higher rate for goods re-routed through the country have raised concerns in Asian capitals. Officials in New Delhi, who are racing to clinch their own deal before a July 9 deadline when higher US tariffs kick in, say they view the Vietnam deal with a fair bit of caution. India had been seeking an exemption on reciprocal tariffs in its negotiations with the Trump administration, and Vietnam settling for a 20% rate was a worry, one of the officials said, asking not to be identified because the discussions are private. India had also been pushing back against US demands to impose a higher tariff on goods with a larger proportion of foreign components, another official said. The Vietnam deal suggests the US will play hardball in its negotiations with trading partners like India. New Delhi is seeking clarity on what kind of goods would carry higher levies based on foreign content, although it doesn't expect to be hit with a rate as high as Vietnam, officials said. India's Ministry of Commerce and Industry didn't immediately respond to an email seeking comment. Asian nations like Vietnam and India are heavily reliant on China for imports and count the US as their biggest export markets. The Lowy Institute think tank estimated that 28% of Vietnamese exports to the US were made up of Chinese content in 2022, up from 9% in 2018. In India's electronic component sector, China accounted for more than 60% of the industry's imports in 2024, according to an industry report. In the negotiations, the US had been pushing Vietnam to get tougher on trade fraud and do more to prevent Chinese goods from being rerouted and repackaged through the country. Trump officials have also demanded India tighten rules-of-origin requirements in order to restrict Chinese goods being shipped to the US via India. In Thailand, the Vietnam agreement was viewed as a sign of things to come. The tiered tariff system 'isn't just about taxes,' said Santitarn Sathirathai, an economist and member of the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee. 'It reflects that the new world of trade may reward countries that can actually create value domestically,' he said. That means countries like Thailand — which is also under the spotlight as a transshipment hub for Chinese goods — will need to invest more and expand production bases. 'The Vietnam-US deal is not the end, but the beginning of a new approach to trade,' Santitarn said in a post on Facebook. To ease trade tensions with the US, several Asian countries have vowed to buy more American goods to curb their trade surpluses with the US. Indonesia announced Thursday it will sign trade and investment pacts worth $34 billion with the US as part of its effort to secure a tariff deal. The US had no concerns about transshipment involving Indonesia and hadn't broached the topic in trade discussions, unlike in Vietnam, Coordinating Economic Minister Airlangga Hartarto told reporters. China's Interests Much is still unknown about the Vietnam deal, including which goods would be deemed transshipped and carry a higher tariff rate. It's also unclear how China would respond to the US's measures to curb its trade with Asian nations. On Thursday in Beijing, a spokeswoman for China's Ministry of Commerce indicated the country will firmly protect its interests. 'My feeling is the Chinese will retaliate,' Abhisit Vejjajiva, Thailand's former prime minister from 2008 to 2011, said in an interview. 'The Chinese might say to Vietnam that, 'well, unless you're offering us the same deal with the US, we'll also charge you more tariffs,'' he said. 'I think China will need to do that because otherwise it cannot deter the other countries from doing this kind of deal with the US.' Singapore's Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong said Southeast Asian nations will need to accept that higher US tariffs are here to stay and that businesses should expect greater scrutiny of their supply chains going forward. 'No Choice' 'To benefit from lower tariffs – especially in sectors such as steel, autos and in time to come, pharmaceuticals – companies must be prepared to meet the US' conditions over their production and supply chains, even if these requirements come at a much higher cost,' he said. Kok Ping Soon, chief executive officer of the Singapore Business Federation, said firms will need to adjust to higher costs. 'If the US is going to impose a set of conditions that you have to fulfill in order to sell to the US, then you're almost asking companies who operate a plant to bifurcate the plant,' he said in an interview on the sidelines of the Asean Conference 2025 in Singapore. 'It just adds cost. But if your destination market is the US, you may have no choice but to do that.' --With assistance from Suttinee Yuvejwattana. SNAP Cuts in Big Tax Bill Will Hit a Lot of Trump Voters Too America's Top Consumer-Sentiment Economist Is Worried How to Steal a House China's Homegrown Jewelry Superstar Pistachios Are Everywhere Right Now, Not Just in Dubai Chocolate ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
