How Trump's poll numbers stack up: From the Politics Desk

NBC News

29-07-2025

Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team's latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.
In today's newsletter, Adam Edelman and Scott Wong take a look at New York Democrats' attempts to respond to Texas Republicans' redistricting effort — and how it illustrates the lack of options at the party's disposal ahead of the 2026 midterms. Meanwhile, Steve Kornacki looks at Trump's first- and second-term approval ratings and what they mean in terms of setting up the next election.
— Scott Bland
New York Democrats unveil their own mid-decade redistricting scheme, targeting future elections
By Adam Edelman and Scott Wong
As Texas Republicans slowly move forward with plans to redraw congressional maps mid-decade, Democrats in New York on Tuesday plowed ahead with their own scheme to counter any GOP redistricting efforts.
But the effort faces a long, arduous path forward and wouldn't be scheduled to go into effect for years, illustrating the limited options at Democrats' disposal as they hunt for ways to counter the GOP redistricting play in Texas.
Legislative Democrats in the blue stronghold unveiled a bill that would allow state lawmakers in Albany to conduct mid-decade redistricting — but only if another state were to do it first.
The proposal would, if enacted, effectively set up the prospect of a national redistricting tit-for-tat between Republicans and Democrats, with control of the House of Representatives in Washington potentially on the line.
However, there are key differences between what's happening in New York and what's happening in Texas, including the timing of any actual map changes. Texas Republicans are looking to immediately enact new district boundaries for the 2026 elections.
The bill in New York, which is technically a legislatively referred constitutional amendment, would allow the Legislature to redraw congressional districts if another state engages in mid-decade redistricting.
It would have to pass the Legislature in two consecutive sessions — and then still be approved by voters in a ballot measure. In theory, that means that whatever new maps that would be created wouldn't be in place until the 2028 elections.
Analysis by Steve Kornacki
Like the first Trump presidency, the second one is playing out in a polarized political atmosphere. But while it isn't massive, there is a key difference thus far in how the public perceives Trump's leadership.
Our running average of independent public polling finds that the president's job approval rating is at 43%. This is a low number historically — but it is also a notch higher than at this point in 2017, the first year of Trump's first term:
Our average consists of 13 polls released within the past two weeks, and it's worth noting that this list includes a Gallup survey that put Trump's approval at 37%, which is 3 to 8 points lower than every other poll in the average. So Trump is faring a bit better than he than he did eight years ago (or not as badly, depending on how you want to look at it).
As the 2026 midterm landscape takes shape, a key question is what level Trump's job approval needs to be for Republicans to have a chance of keeping control of the House, where a net shift of just three seats would cost them.
With the electorate highly sorted along partisan lines and so many more seats now safely in the hands of either party, the battleground is unusually small.
The GOP doesn't have to make inroads into otherwise Democratic terrain to keep the majority, which means the party could theoretically get by in 2026 without a broadly popular Trump. Democrats limited their losses to a handful of House seats in the 2022 midterms despite then-President Joe Biden's low job approval rating (44% in the exit poll), bolstering the GOP's hopes on this front.
If Trump can remain above his first-term levels and boost his current standing a few points, the playing field could be very competitive next year.
Of course, if his approval moves a few points in the other direction, the story could be very different.
It was around this point on the calendar that several presidents' numbers shifted abruptly. In George W. Bush's second term, chaos in Iraq, controversy over the federal response to Hurricane Katrina and his doomed nomination of Harriet Miers to the Supreme Court sent his approval rating into a tailspin from which it never rebounded.
And at this point four years ago, Biden's average approval sat at 53%. But in short order, the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan played out, Biden's standing sank, and it never recovered.
That having been said, abrupt and dramatic shifts in his image haven't been the story for Trump during the 10 years he has occupied the national political stage. This is a president, and a man, who most people long ago made their minds up about. Most people, but not all.