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Defence tech revolution already redefining future battlefield
LONDON, Aug 22 (Reuters) - (The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.) As the billionaire founder of one of the world's fastest-growing defence technology companies visited Taiwan earlier this month, he had a stark message for the island's next generation of IT engineers: In the face of a mounting threat from mainland China, the survival of their democracy might well depend on them. In Asia for the opening of a new office in Taiwan and agreement of a production deal with South Korea, Anduril chief executive and founder Palmer Luckey also announced the delivery to the island of Anduril's Altius 'loitering munitions', within six months, he said, of the contract being signed. It was a reminder of the way in which unmanned systems and the AI that increasingly operates them are redefining a defence sector more often known for huge delays and cost overruns. Such systems have created a new generation of 'defence tech' whose political connections are often as significant as the new technology they wield. But Luckey's speech to Taiwan's Artificial Intelligence Academy at its national university on the outskirts of the capital made a rather different point. It was that Taiwan itself must also move forward with its own defence technology revolution, emulating Ukraine where hundreds of small firms have proven crucial to national survival against Russian invasion by building hundreds of thousands of combat, strike and surveillance drones a month. 'Taiwan is on the verge of a techno-industrial renaissance for its national defence,' Luckey said, arguing that it had the workforce, industry, government enthusiasm and available private capital to leap ahead of many other nations. The weaponry as well as systems produced by firms like Anduril are fast becoming central to U.S.-led strategic planning in both Europe and the Pacific. They are now already tested in battle in Ukraine and increasingly critical to the plans of U.S. commanders to defend Taiwan if it is attacked by China – or indeed if Russia attacked deeper into Eastern Europe. Anduril's aggressive approach this year has seen it race ahead with building its 'Arsenal-One' facility in Ohio, an enormous manufacturing plant that hopes to have its first weapons systems in production by the start of 2026. It has also now acquired another plant in Mississippi to deliver solid rocket motors for the U.S. military. Manufacture of solid rocket motors – a key part of both air defence and longer-range strike missiles now increasingly in demand – was hitherto largely the preserve of longer-established defence firms like Northrop Grumman and Finland's Nammo. Anduril is just one of several incoming new entrants to that market. Multiple firms ranging from established 'defence primes' to start-ups are also now working fast to build and scale unmanned systems at sea, including surface and subsurface vessels, with some of the firms looking to strike deals with major shipyards to deliver mass production ahead of enduring any major conflict. September and October will see several major arms industry fairs in Europe and the United States, including Defence and Security Equipment International (DSEI) in London, the London Defence Tech Week shortly afterward, the Global Security and Innovation Summit in Hamburg, and the annual Association of the U.S. Army (AUSA) conference in Washington D.C. All those events will likely see a plethora of defence technology firms pushing their wares and announcing deals of various sizes. How many of those firms will truly survive and thrive, however, remains unclear – as does the balance between established 'defence primes', the new 'defence tech' giants led by Palantir and Anduril, and the thousands of much smaller firms vying for their own piece of the action. How fast that weaponry is truly developing is also a mixed picture. In July, the New York Times noted that drone tests in Alaska conducted by the U.S. Army had indicated multiple problems with unmanned aerial vehicles struggling to perform the missions they were purchased for. This month, Reuters and Defense Scoop reported similar issues with U.S. naval trials. What is clear is that while many of those systems are not yet in service, those that are have already become increasingly central to U.S. and allied military planning. Integrating more subsystems in the next three years could help deter China from launching an invasion of Taiwan and Russia from any further attacks in Eastern Europe. Speaking to the podcast 'War on the Rocks' at the start of June, the new head of the U.S. Army in Europe, Lieutenant General Christopher Donahue, said his forces expected that 'manned systems' – crewed weaponry such as tanks, helicopters and infantry teams and trenches – would now only meet the enemy directly once they were 'deep in the fight'. U.S. Indo Pacific commander Admiral Sam Paparo has also talked of using unmanned systems – both on the surface and drone submarines – to create a 'hellscape' in the Taiwan Strait to stop or at least slow a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. That scheme, first announced in 2023, was backed up by a broader Pentagon project known as 'REPLICATOR', launched in 2024 to boost the mass-production of unmanned systems to be prepared for a major conflict. Exactly how the Trump administration will approach the same problem is not yet entirely clear - although U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has spoken of cutting through 'red tape' to allow individual military formations to buy their own drones. This summer's collision between two drone vessels from rival manufacturers in U.S. Navy trials, later leaked to Reuters, pointed to the challenges of taking such technology to the next level by making the unmanned systems more autonomous. Sources told Reuters the incidents appear to have prompted the Navy to indefinitely pause a $20 million contract with L3Harris, the sixth largest defence contractor in the United States. The firm itself declined to comment. That, however, is unlikely to stop the race to invest in and embrace such systems. In Europe, analysis firm Taylor Wessing estimated that roughly 10 percent of all venture capital investment in 2024 went on defence systems, many of them also high-tech. Although the much larger U.S. venture capital market means that while the proportion going into defence is likely smaller, the overall numbers are much bigger – all leading to rapid growth in the U.S. and allied nations. Another report produced for the London Resilience Conference last September showed $18 billion in total invested by venture capital firms across the U.S., UK, Europe, Australia and New Zealand between 2018 and last September, with over 370 defence and defence-linked start-ups then valued at more than $160 billion. Those numbers have probably grown since then. Anduril's latest funding round in June saw it raise $2.5 billion in return for equity that valued the company itself at more than $30 billion, roughly twice its estimated value as recently as 2023. Palantir, founded in 2004 by billionaire Peter Thiel – whose capital 'Founders Fund' is also a major Anduril investor – has also seen its share price rocket this year to take its own valuation to in excess of $250 billion. Palantir has been at the heart of much of the Pentagon's embrace of AI for analysis and targeting, particularly its Project Maven in which the company has worked with multiple other contractors to greatly boost the number of targets to be generated for weapons systems such as HIMARS long-range rockets. The past week, however, has seen it lose at times roughly 20 percent of its market value: the Economist described Palantir as the most overvalued company in the world. Palantir is reportedly looking to grow beyond the defence sector to tap much wider opportunities, but appears to be resisting the temptation to follow other defence tech firms into making actual weaponry. For others, however, that remains the perceived area of maximum opportunity, particularly with almost all more established Western defence projects from warship and submarine building to aircraft and missile manufacture often suffering heavy delays and budget overruns. The biggest growth, though – as well as the greatest innovation – may well be in the nations and regions that judge themselves most at risk of possible attack. In Finland, drone and electronic warfare firms increasingly attend paintball tournaments to test their skills against each other as part of wider simulated battles – while in Estonia, several tech millionaires who made their money in prior decades are now investing heavily in new defence technology. Finland and Estonia both have a long border with Russia. Many of those firms are now working directly with Ukrainian counterparts and will be showcasing their work at the Brave1 arms fair in the western Ukrainian city of Lviv next month. That event will offer bomb shelters at the venue to protect visitors and investors. While many of Ukraine's drones have components built in China, Taiwan has stipulated that none of those it is purchasing can contain parts built on the mainland. Taiwanese Major General Lou Woei-jye told a news conference on Monday that Taiwan was now following the U.S. in reclassifying smaller drones as "ammunition". That means they will be judged expendable and expected to be used in large quantities from the start of a conflict. Taiwan also announced this week that it aims to procure almost 50,000 drones of multiple types over the next two years. If it comes to a Chinese invasion, though, the experience of Ukraine suggests that might not yet be enough.
