US-Israeli plans for the region - World - Al-Ahram Weekly

Al-Ahram Weekly

03-07-2025

Could a permanent ceasefire in Gaza pave the way for a comprehensive regional settlement
Following the conclusion of the 12-day war between Israel and Iran, optimism is growing about the possibility of an end to the Israeli war on Gaza. Ceasefire negotiations had earlier reached deadlock due to the conflicting parties' insistence on specific conditions.
However, the current discussions about a potential deal extend beyond a ceasefire in Gaza, falling within a broader regional framework that, according to reports, includes expanding the so-called 'Abraham Accords' between Israel and the Arab countries to include Syria, Lebanon, and Saudi Arabia.
If such Accords are signed, this would mean Hamas' failure in halting normalisation with Israel in the region, which it has been promoting as a key objective of its Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, launched on 7 October 2023.
There are indications, however, that the geopolitical environment in the region is not conducive to such a transformation, and there are few signs that its implementation is feasible in this form.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coming visit to Washington is expected to include meetings on a Gaza deal. Several indicators suggest that the US is considering not only ending the war on Gaza but also integrating it into a broader regional settlement.
Israel's Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper has reported that US President Donald Trump threatened to suspend aid to Israel in a post on Truth Social if efforts to prosecute Netanyahu on corruption charges continue, arguing that such a trial would harm Israel and the interests of the US.
If anything, this means that Netanyahu is willing to fully engage with Trump's regional plan.
According to this narrative, the next steps would involve working to end the Gaza war, followed by early Israeli elections aimed at replacing Netanyahu's extremist allies with figures more open to participating in future settlements.
Netanyahu does not appear apprehensive about such early elections, especially with his popularity rising since the 12-day war with Iran. Prior to this war, his approval ratings had declined in favour of competitor Naftali Bennett, prompting Netanyahu to undertake a political manoeuvre to prevent the Haredim Party from dissolving the Knesset.
Leaks related to the US plan for the region indicate Israel's willingness to relinquish positions it occupied in southern Syria following the fall of the regime of former Syrian president Bashar Al-Assad in December.
However, questions remain regarding the fate of Mount Hermon, which Tel Aviv considers a strategic location. This scenario would be contingent on Israel retaining control of the Occupied Golan Heights, ultimately paving the way for normalisation with Syria.
The problem here is that Syria will not be able to reclaim sovereignty over the Golan, which would be unacceptable at the popular level in a country still grappling with instability after the collapse of the former Baathist regime.
Other sources have suggested that the Golan Heights could be transformed into a 'peace park,' with no mention of the issue of final sovereignty.
According to the Hebrew-language channel i24NEWS, the war between Israel and Iran has contributed to a rapprochement between Damascus and Tel Aviv, after Syria allowed Israeli aircraft to use its airspace during its operations.
Some of these operations, according to the Israeli media, were launched from Syrian territory, against the backdrop of tensions between Iran and Syria following the fall of the former Syrian regime.
As for Lebanon, also included on the normalisation agenda, the areas seized by Israel during its war with Hizbullah raise questions about the path of normalisation with Beirut.
The Lebanese government says that Israel's presence in these areas hinders the implementation of the ceasefire agreement with Hizbullah. However, Lebanon's ongoing economic crisis may push it towards accepting a framework that guarantees land border demarcation with Israel or facilitates access to an International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan.
These incentives, along with a broader package, could be sufficient to advance Israel's normalisation process with Lebanon.
On Hizbullah's position on normalisation, security and political developments in the region following the Operation Al-Aqsa Flood suggest that the group's influence has waned militarily and politically. Leaks have mentioned the possibility of integrating Hizbullah into the Lebanese Army, though the feasibility of this remains uncertain.
Meanwhile, Israel remains active on the northern front. According to Israeli military assessments, its army still needs additional time to address threats from the north.
Regarding normalisation with Saudi Arabia, Riyadh has repeatedly stated that normalisation with Israel will not be on the table without a clear political horizon for resolving the Palestinian cause.
Netanyahu's office, according to Israeli media, continues to deny the existence of any talks between Israel and the US concerning a two-state solution, while internal criticism continues to rise within Israel.
According to Yedioth Ahronoth, extremist Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has said that 'they [the Saudis] should be the ones 'paying' for peace with Israel… The idea that we need to give the Saudis a Palestinian state in return for peace is so out of touch, only the Israeli Left could think of it.'
This points to Israel's lack of understanding of public opinion in Saudi Arabia, a country with a population exceeding 30 million, where public sentiment exerts pressure on the political leadership.
According to a study on Arab public opinion regarding the war on Gaza, 64 per cent of respondents in Saudi Arabia stated that the Operation Al-Aqsa Flood was the result of Israel's continued occupation of the Palestinian Territories, indicating broad public sympathy for the Palestinian cause.
An important factor in any deal is Hamas, especially given that the points that have obstructed a permanent ceasefire since October 2023 remain unresolved.
What is certain is that Hamas is striving to secure its continued presence in the Gaza Strip, even if outside the structure of governance.
The formula for a deal was initially introduced on a smaller scale, limited to normalisation with Saudi Arabia, by former US secretary of state Antony Blinken.
Under the administration of former US president Joe Biden, the deal included the return of all Israeli prisoners held in Gaza, the full withdrawal of Israeli military forces from the Strip, and the transfer of internal security responsibilities to a Palestinian Authority (PA) police force.
At the time, the deal failed to move forward because the cost demanded of Israel, ending the war and withdrawing from Gaza, was seen as too high, and Netanyahu was unable to impose it on his extremist coalition.
While it remains difficult to persuade far-right Israeli ministers to halt the war in Gaza, the Israeli military level in the Strip now suggests that combat operations have reached their peak.
According to statements by Israeli Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir, Operation Gideon's Chariots has achieved its objectives. This is a key variable that was not present when a similar version of the deal was proposed under Biden.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 3 July, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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