Colorado State University issues updated 2025 hurricane season forecast
Colorado State University's regular July update to its original forecast trims one named storm from its initial prediction of 17, reducing the number of hurricanes to eight from nine and major hurricanes to three from four.
The new forecast numbers include the three tropical storms that have already formed — Andrea, Barry, and Chantal — meaning there could be 13 remaining storms through the season, which officially ends Nov. 30.
An average hurricane season has 14 named storms and seven hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
The report, released July 9, says the reason for dropping a storm from the forecast is strong cyclone-shredding wind shear in the Caribbean that is predicted to continue this month.
'High levels of Caribbean shear in June and July are typically associated with less active hurricane seasons,' the report notes. 'However, we also anticipate the tropical Pacific to be characterized by ENSO neutral conditions.'
ENSO is the El Niño Southern Oscillation, which includes the climate patterns El Niño and La Niña. El Niño is typically associated with less active storm seasons, while La Niña can mean more active seasons.
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When the climate is in a neutral pattern, storm season can lean either way, but it averages two to three more named storms than a normal season.
Also, sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic Ocean are slightly warmer than normal. The report says the warmer temperatures combined with the neutral pattern provides a friendly environment for hurricane formation and intensification.
Most forecasts for the 2025 season have predicted above-normal activity, including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The administration, which will provide an update to its forecast in August, predicts 13 to 19 named storms, including six to 10 hurricanes, and three to five major hurricanes.
Andrea, Barry and Chantel were short-lived tropical storms.
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But the remnants of Barry, heavy with tropical moisture, contributed to torrential rains that caused the devastating flash-flooding in Texas.
Moisture carried inland by a fizzled Chantal also caused significant flooding in North Carolina.
As of July 9, the National Hurricane Center had no areas of concern it was watching, and some meteorologists said storms may struggle to form for the next couple of weeks. By late July, the Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO, is forecast to be in the Atlantic. The MJO is a traveling pulse of storms that can incite tropical cyclones.
'Compared to recent hurricane seasons, 2025 has been anything but smooth sailing for fledgling storms,' said Michael Lowry, a hurricane expert with South Florida ABC-TV affiliate WPLG-Channel 10 in his 'Eye on the Tropics column.
'Atlantic waters have seen a substantial cooldown, wind shear has been noticeably high across the main tropical belt, and the global circulation pattern has favored lots of dry, sinking air through the basin."
Kimberly Miller is a journalist for The Palm Beach Post, part of the USA Today Network of Florida. She covers real estate, weather, and the environment. Subscribe to The Dirt for a weekly real estate roundup. If you have news tips, please send them to kmiller@pbpost.com. Help support our local journalism, subscribe today.
This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Colorado State University updates its 2025 hurricane season forecast
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