Disney earnings: 2 things that could change this analyst's rating
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Zooming in on the upcoming earnings this week, Doug. What is your biggest question gonna be for the company sort of going in, uh, and awaiting those numbers?
Yeah, I think the question three months ago would have been, you know, how the park's doing. Uh, particularly with Comcast Epic Park opening. You know, there was some concern with that cut into Disney's attendance. I think Epic has done well, but it hasn't done so wildly well that you you would be really concerned that Disney was seeing, you know, a major impact, not that there won't be an impact, but I think everyone assumed there'd be some impact. Um, and I also, three months ago, people were more concerned about macro, and that that seems to have receded at least a bit. I think the the more important question is, you know, they had a summer with four big movies. One of them, Lilo and Stitch, the the remake, did very well. Um, they had an animated movie, Elio, which did incredibly poorly, and will almost certainly be a meaningful write-down. Uh, it's another original IP film that they have made that hasn't done well, uh, on the animated side. And it's not just them, it's the entire industry. Original IP animated films are struggling. They also had, I think maybe most concerningly, two well-reviewed Marvel films. Um, one, uh, uh, Fantastic Four, which had a good opening weekend, but really had a major falloff in the second weekend. Um, and and I think in general, there's gotta be some concern about the trajectory of the overall Marvel franchise, and and whether it's lost a lot of the interest that it used to have and was a key driver for them.
Yeah, I think we were a big Marvel household, and now we've got a little Marvel fatigue, I have to admit. Um, and and when you look at that that parks question, how do you think they will be doing given, to your point, the competition from the newly opened park in Florida?
Yeah, look, the parks business has been functioning very well. They had a little bit of a soft patch last summer, but it seems to have recovered. Uh, you know, again, I think Orlando will probably be a touch slower this quarter because of the Epic opening, but not so much that it's gonna have anybody concerned. You know, they've got, um, multiple cruise ships are gonna be coming to market over the next few years. That's an opportunity for them there to have additional growth. Uh, I I think the parks business is good, right? It's gonna continue to be good, sort of barring any major recession. I I think everybody knows that, right? It's sort of, I don't know as an investor if you get paid for the parks business being good just because that's kind of baked into the stock.
Uh, and speaking about being baked into the stock, you've got a hold rating on it, $123 price target. What has to change for you to get more bullish on Disney?
Well, I think one thing is we kind of need to know who's gonna replace Bob Iger.
Yeah, small, small thing, right, Doug?
Yeah, yeah, that remains a very open question. You know, will it be somebody internally? Will it be somebody from outside the company? Uh, we don't know. And he's, you know, he's supposed to be handing over the reins next year. Um, he's has he has been supposed to hand over the reins many times in the past, and, uh, you know, he's still CEO after after some time off. So, we'll see. I think that's a really big, important thing, and sort of whoever does replace him, what's their vision for Disney over the next 10 years? It won't necessarily be the same as Bob Iger's. Um, and then I think, you know, it's it's the media business, right? It's how how much can they grow Disney Plus profitability? I think that they can get it higher, but can they get it higher fast enough to offset the diminishing profits of linear? I think that's also, uh, another very open question that they have not been able to answer in any in any concrete way.
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In a Monday research note titled "on course for cuts," Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius projected the Fed will proceed with three 25 basis point interest rate cuts throughout its final three meetings of 2025. But Hatzius added that should the unemployment rate move higher from 4.2% in the August jobs report, a 50 basis point interest rate cut in September is "possible." For their part, markets are split on how far the Fed will bring down interest rates this year. As of Tuesday afternoon, investors are pricing in a 46% chance the Fed cuts rates by 75 basis points in 2025 and a 43% chance rates are lowered by 50 basis points by the end of the year, per the CME FedWatch Tool. This will put upcoming monthly labor reports and weekly reports on unemployment claim filings, released on Thursdays, in particular focus for investors between now and the Sept. 17 monetary policy decision. 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In other words, the risks are more heavily weighted to the bull case outcome. This reveals a key takeaway from how Wall Street is talking about the potential path higher for an S&P 500 that's already near record highs. The bull case for stocks isn't backed by a call for US economic growth to suddenly inflect higher or interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve to suddenly spark a broad market rally. As we wrote in Tuesday's Yahoo Finance Morning Brief newsletter, the bull case in stocks is still being driven by AI investment and its ability to push corporate profits higher. "For our bull case scenario to play out, tariff costs would shift mostly to the supplier having a negligible impact on US corporate profits," Inui wrote. "At the same time, AI adoption accelerates and starts to have a real impact on profitability through efficiency gains." Countries push for last-minute deals as Thursday tariff deadline looms Yahoo Finance's Ben Wersckul reports: Read more here. 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Despite this, issues like trade policy and tariffs meant Rivian maintained its 2025 full-year adjusted EBITDA loss projection in a range of $1.7 billion to $1.9 billion. Tariffs on auto parts currently stand at 25%, though USMCA-compliant parts are exempt. Yahoo Finance's Pras Subramanian reports: Rivian (RIVN) will report second quarter earnings after the bell on Tuesday. The pure-play EV maker is building the case toward eventual profitability while navigating the minefields of President Trump's auto sector tariffs and removal of EV tax credits. For the quarter, Rivian is expected to report revenue of $1.28 billion, per Bloomberg consensus estimates, higher than the $1.158 billion reported a year ago. The company is expected to post an adjusted EPS loss of $0.63, with an adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) loss of $493 million. Last quarter, the company reported its second consecutive quarter of gross profit, hitting $206 million. Despite this, issues like trade policy and tariffs meant Rivian maintained its 2025 full-year adjusted EBITDA loss projection in a range of $1.7 billion to $1.9 billion. Tariffs on auto parts currently stand at 25%, though USMCA-compliant parts are exempt. The Federal Reserve rate cut debate is shifting Following Friday's weaker-than-expected July jobs report, the consensus debate surrounding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts is no longer whether the central bank will slash rates this year. Instead, it's all about how aggressive the cuts will be. "I think a 25 basis points cut is a lock," Queens' College, Cambridge president Mohamed El-Erian told Yahoo Finance. "A 50 basis point cut is a possibility, not yet a probability. It's a possibility." The economic team at Goldman Sachs agrees. In a Monday research note titled "on course for cuts," Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius projected the Fed will proceed with three 25 basis point interest rate cuts throughout its final three meetings of 2025. But Hatzius added that should the unemployment rate move higher from 4.2% in the August jobs report, a 50 basis point interest rate cut in September is "possible." For their part, markets are split on how far the Fed will bring down interest rates this year. As of Tuesday afternoon, investors are pricing in a 46% chance the Fed cuts rates by 75 basis points in 2025 and a 43% chance rates are lowered by 50 basis points by the end of the year, per the CME FedWatch Tool. This will put upcoming monthly labor reports and weekly reports on unemployment claim filings, released on Thursdays, in particular focus for investors between now and the Sept. 17 monetary policy decision. Following Friday's weaker-than-expected July jobs report, the consensus debate surrounding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts is no longer whether the central bank will slash rates this year. Instead, it's all about how aggressive the cuts will be. "I think a 25 basis points cut is a lock," Queens' College, Cambridge president Mohamed El-Erian told Yahoo Finance. "A 50 basis point cut is a possibility, not yet a probability. It's a possibility." The economic team at Goldman Sachs agrees. In a Monday research note titled "on course for cuts," Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius projected the Fed will proceed with three 25 basis point interest rate cuts throughout its final three meetings of 2025. But Hatzius added that should the unemployment rate move higher from 4.2% in the August jobs report, a 50 basis point interest rate cut in September is "possible." For their part, markets are split on how far the Fed will bring down interest rates this year. 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All three sectors were among the worst performers within the benchmark index. AI is the clear risk to the upside for the stock market in 2025 Another Wall Street strategist has boosted their year-end S&P 500 target. In a note to clients on Tuesday, HSBC head of equity strategy for the Americas Nicole Inui boosted her year-end S&P 500 target to 6,400 from 5,600. Inui also detailed a bull-case scenario in which an "AI fueled rally" brings the benchmark index to 7,000 by year-end and a bear-case scenario in which tariff impacts drag the S&P 500 down to 5,700. "We have more confidence in the sustainability of the AI trade than further easing on policy uncertainty," Inui wrote. In other words, the risks are more heavily weighted to the bull case outcome. This reveals a key takeaway from how Wall Street is talking about the potential path higher for an S&P 500 that's already near record highs. The bull case for stocks isn't backed by a call for US economic growth to suddenly inflect higher or interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve to suddenly spark a broad market rally. As we wrote in Tuesday's Yahoo Finance Morning Brief newsletter, the bull case in stocks is still being driven by AI investment and its ability to push corporate profits higher. "For our bull case scenario to play out, tariff costs would shift mostly to the supplier having a negligible impact on US corporate profits," Inui wrote. "At the same time, AI adoption accelerates and starts to have a real impact on profitability through efficiency gains." Another Wall Street strategist has boosted their year-end S&P 500 target. In a note to clients on Tuesday, HSBC head of equity strategy for the Americas Nicole Inui boosted her year-end S&P 500 target to 6,400 from 5,600. Inui also detailed a bull-case scenario in which an "AI fueled rally" brings the benchmark index to 7,000 by year-end and a bear-case scenario in which tariff impacts drag the S&P 500 down to 5,700. "We have more confidence in the sustainability of the AI trade than further easing on policy uncertainty," Inui wrote. In other words, the risks are more heavily weighted to the bull case outcome. This reveals a key takeaway from how Wall Street is talking about the potential path higher for an S&P 500 that's already near record highs. The bull case for stocks isn't backed by a call for US economic growth to suddenly inflect higher or interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve to suddenly spark a broad market rally. As we wrote in Tuesday's Yahoo Finance Morning Brief newsletter, the bull case in stocks is still being driven by AI investment and its ability to push corporate profits higher. "For our bull case scenario to play out, tariff costs would shift mostly to the supplier having a negligible impact on US corporate profits," Inui wrote. "At the same time, AI adoption accelerates and starts to have a real impact on profitability through efficiency gains." Countries push for last-minute deals as Thursday tariff deadline looms Yahoo Finance's Ben Wersckul reports: Read more here. Yahoo Finance's Ben Wersckul reports: Read more here. Hims & Hers stock slides 6% after second quarter revenue misses forecasts Yahoo Finance's Jake Conley reports: Read more here. Yahoo Finance's Jake Conley reports: Read more here. PMI data points to 'encouragingly robust' economic activity to start the third quarter Activity in the services continued to expand during the month of July, according to two data releases on Tuesday morning. The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) services PMI registered a reading of 50.1 in July, down from June's reading of 50.8, and below the 51.5 economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected. Readings above 50 for this index indicate an expansion in activity, while readings below 50 indicate contraction. The manufacturing sector has been in contraction for most of the past two years. "July's PMI level continues to reflect slow growth, and survey respondents indicated that seasonal and weather factors had negative impacts on business," Steve Miller, the chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey committee, said in the release. "The most common topic among survey panelists remained tariff-related impacts, with a noticeable increase in commodities listed as up in price." Elsewhere on Tuesday, S&P Global's composite PMI, which combines both activity in the services and manufacturing sectors, registered a reading of 55.1 in July, up from 52.9 the month prior. S&P Global chief business economist Chris Williamson said the data signals "encouragingly robust economic growth at the start of the third quarter." Williamson added that the July PMI data points to the US economy growing at a 2.5% annualized pace in the third quarter, above the 1.25% pace seen in the first half. Activity in the services continued to expand during the month of July, according to two data releases on Tuesday morning. The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) services PMI registered a reading of 50.1 in July, down from June's reading of 50.8, and below the 51.5 economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected. Readings above 50 for this index indicate an expansion in activity, while readings below 50 indicate contraction. The manufacturing sector has been in contraction for most of the past two years. "July's PMI level continues to reflect slow growth, and survey respondents indicated that seasonal and weather factors had negative impacts on business," Steve Miller, the chair of the Institute for Supply Management Services Business Survey committee, said in the release. "The most common topic among survey panelists remained tariff-related impacts, with a noticeable increase in commodities listed as up in price." Elsewhere on Tuesday, S&P Global's composite PMI, which combines both activity in the services and manufacturing sectors, registered a reading of 55.1 in July, up from 52.9 the month prior. S&P Global chief business economist Chris Williamson said the data signals "encouragingly robust economic growth at the start of the third quarter." Williamson added that the July PMI data points to the US economy growing at a 2.5% annualized pace in the third quarter, above the 1.25% pace seen in the first half. Trump rules out Bessent as next Fed chair, says may name Powell replacement soon Yahoo Finance's Jennifer Schonberger and Myles Udland report: Read more here. Yahoo Finance's Jennifer Schonberger and Myles Udland report: Read more here. Trending tickers in premarket trading: Pfizer, Palantir, Caterpillar Companies reporting earnings topped Yahoo Finance's trending tickers list on Tuesday. Here's a look at how they're trading 30 minutes before the opening bell: Read more live coverage of corporate earnings here. Companies reporting earnings topped Yahoo Finance's trending tickers list on Tuesday. Here's a look at how they're trading 30 minutes before the opening bell: Read more live coverage of corporate earnings here. Palantir stock surges on Q2 beat and raise Palantir (PLTR) stock climbed 7% higher in premarket trading on Tuesday following the AI software company's blowout second quarter earnings report on Monday afternoon. Palantir's revenue topped $1 billion in a quarter for the first time as the company dodged government contract spending cuts and reported beat-and-raise results. Year to date, Palantir stock is up 112%. Yahoo Finance's Jake Conley reports: Read more here. Palantir (PLTR) stock climbed 7% higher in premarket trading on Tuesday following the AI software company's blowout second quarter earnings report on Monday afternoon. Palantir's revenue topped $1 billion in a quarter for the first time as the company dodged government contract spending cuts and reported beat-and-raise results. Year to date, Palantir stock is up 112%. Yahoo Finance's Jake Conley reports: Read more here. Wall Street 2025 bonuses: Winners and losers so far Yahoo Finance's David Hollerith reports: Read more here. Yahoo Finance's David Hollerith reports: Read more here. Good morning. Here's what's happening today. Economic data: S&P Global US Services PMI (July final) S&P Global US Composite, (July final); ISM services index (July) Earnings: AMD (AMD), BP (BP), Caterpillar (CAT), Duke Energy (DUK), Lucid Group (LCID), Opendoor (OPEN), Pfizer (PFE), Rivian (RIVN), Super Micro Computer (SMCI), Snap (SNAP), Upstart (UPST) Here are some of the biggest stories you may have missed overnight and early this morning: One key reason a slowing economy isn't shaking stock market bulls Wall Street 2025 bonuses: Winners and losers so far Big Tech is power-hungry, and America's aging grid can't keep up Pfizer beats in Q2 earnings, reaffirms 2025 outlook Trump's Fed pick could face resistance from colleagues on rates Intel struggles with key manufacturing process for next chip EU says it expects turbulence in trade relations with US Jefferies sees crowded trade in Big Tech as Fed nears rate cuts US rig decline outpaces efficiency, threatening oil output Autopilot verdict deals Tesla a 'black eye' Economic data: S&P Global US Services PMI (July final) S&P Global US Composite, (July final); ISM services index (July) Earnings: AMD (AMD), BP (BP), Caterpillar (CAT), Duke Energy (DUK), Lucid Group (LCID), Opendoor (OPEN), Pfizer (PFE), Rivian (RIVN), Super Micro Computer (SMCI), Snap (SNAP), Upstart (UPST) Here are some of the biggest stories you may have missed overnight and early this morning: One key reason a slowing economy isn't shaking stock market bulls Wall Street 2025 bonuses: Winners and losers so far Big Tech is power-hungry, and America's aging grid can't keep up Pfizer beats in Q2 earnings, reaffirms 2025 outlook Trump's Fed pick could face resistance from colleagues on rates Intel struggles with key manufacturing process for next chip EU says it expects turbulence in trade relations with US Jefferies sees crowded trade in Big Tech as Fed nears rate cuts US rig decline outpaces efficiency, threatening oil output Autopilot verdict deals Tesla a 'black eye' Pfizer stock rises after beating Q2 earnings, reaffirming 2025 outlook Pfizer (PFE) stock rose 2% in premarket trading Tuesday after beating quarterly estimates on the top and bottom lines. The company posted earnings per share of $0.78, versus estimates of $0.58 per share, on revenue of $14.7 billion, compared to Wall Street expectations of $13.5 billion. Yahoo Finance's Anjalee Khemlani reports: Read more here. Pfizer (PFE) stock rose 2% in premarket trading Tuesday after beating quarterly estimates on the top and bottom lines. The company posted earnings per share of $0.78, versus estimates of $0.58 per share, on revenue of $14.7 billion, compared to Wall Street expectations of $13.5 billion. Yahoo Finance's Anjalee Khemlani reports: Read more here. One key reason a slowing economy isn't shaking stock market bulls Yahoo finance's senior reporter Josh Schafer looks at why softening economic data may not be as important for stocks as AI: Read more here. Yahoo finance's senior reporter Josh Schafer looks at why softening economic data may not be as important for stocks as AI: Read more here. Nvidia partner Hon Hai's July sales growth weakened by tariffs Nvidia's (NVDA) main server assembly partner Hon Hai Precision ( saw its Taiwan stock close 2% higher on Tuesday despite reporting a sales slowdown for July. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Nvidia's (NVDA) main server assembly partner Hon Hai Precision ( saw its Taiwan stock close 2% higher on Tuesday despite reporting a sales slowdown for July. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Oil flattened from multi-day drop after Trump's India rebuke Oil prices steadied from a three-day decline following a ramping up of threats from Trump to India over the Asian nation's continued use of Russian crude. Bloomberg reports: Read more here. Oil prices steadied from a three-day decline following a ramping up of threats from Trump to India over the Asian nation's continued use of Russian crude. Bloomberg reports: Read more here. 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How major US stock indexes fared Tuesday, 8/5/2025
U.S. stock indexes slipped following the latest discouraging signal on the U.S. economy. The S&P 500 fell 0.5% Tuesday, coming off a whipsaw stretch where it followed its worst day since May with its best since May. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1%, and the Nasdaq composite fell 0.7%. A weaker-than-expected report on activity for U.S. services businesses added to worries that President Donald Trump's tariffs may be hurting the economy. But hopes for coming cuts to interest rates by the Federal Reserve, along with a stream of stronger-than-expected profit reports from U.S. companies, helped keep the losses in check. On Tuesday: The S&P 500 fell 30.75 points, or 0.5%, to 6,299.19. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 61.90 points, or 0.1%, to 44,111.74. The Nasdaq composite fell 137.03 points, or 0.7%, to 20,916.55. The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 13.37 points, or 0.6%, to 2,225.67. For the week: The S&P 500 is up 61.18 points, or 1%. The Dow is up 523.16 points, or 1.2%. The Nasdaq is up 266.42 points, or 1.3%. The Russell 2000 is up 58.89 points, or 2.7%. For the year: The S&P 500 is up 417.56 points, or 7.1%. The Dow is up 1,567.52 points, or 3.7%. The Nasdaq is up 1,605.76 points, or 8.3%. The Russell 2000 is down 4.49 points, or 0.2%. Sign in to access your portfolio
