
Inflation expectations hit 4 year low
This provides policymakers with another reason to press ahead with the easing cycle.
According to new data from the Bureau for Economic Research, average inflation expectations for the next two years have dropped to 4-point-5 percent in the second quarter.
This is slightly down from 4,7 percent.
The SA Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee watches this figure closely, weighing the timing and pace of its much-anticipated easing cycle.
The MPC prefers to anchor inflation expectations at the 4,5 percent midpoint of its target band.
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44 minutes ago
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IOL News
an hour ago
- IOL News
Fears of 30% tariffs loom as US-South Africa trade negotiations remain unresolved
Economists and other experts say that there is some concern following the expiry of US President Donald Trump's 90-day pause on tariff hikes on South Africa and other countries announced on Liberation Day in April. South Africa faces up to 30% tariffs if implemented. As July 9 approaches, economists and industry experts have expressed serious concern about the potential consequences of the expiry of US President Donald Trump's 90-day pause on tariff increases affecting South Africa and other countries. Following the promise of a 10% universal tariff, there is a looming threat of substantial tariffs rising to an alarming 30% if a deal is not reached by the impending deadline. This situation sends ripples of uncertainty among South African exporters who rely heavily on the US market for their products. Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa, on Thursday highlighted the ongoing negotiations between South African businesses and US authorities but noted the prevailing ambiguity regarding future trade terms. 'South African businesses and the government have engaged, and continue to interact with US authorities regarding the path forward. However, the path forward remains unclear at this moment, although we would all like to see the continuation of the 10% tariffs rather than the 31% tariffs South Africa faced,' he said. 'The export diversification part is, of course, sound advice. However, we cannot completely abandon the US market; it is vital to South Africa and crucial to us in the agricultural sector. The export diversification comments typically point to China, suggesting that we should focus more on that area. Indeed, regular readers of this letter will be aware that China has been a primary focus for some time.' Professor Raymond Parsons, an economist from North West University, said that this was another period of heightened uncertainty for key SA exporters to the US. 'Unless a US-SA deal is struck by then, or the deadline is extended, the immediate economic worry is about the impending rise in reciprocal tariffs. About 80% of all products exported to the US by SA will get the full impact of the 30% reciprocal tariff increase,' he said. 'We must therefore not underestimate how crucial the current dialogue between the US and SA is for future trade and investment relations. This also needs to cover the future of Agoa. SA needs to buy time to stabilise and consolidate its US-SA economic relations.' Annabel Bishop, chief economist at Investec, however suggested that there might be extensions on negotiations for various US trade partners that could mitigate imminent tariff hikes. 'Substantial progress made in negotiations with most of the US's major trade partners has reduced global economic growth concerns, with time expected to be extended past next week for those still 'negotiating in good faith'. A number of key US trade partners have not had smooth sailing with their negotiations, with the biggest, the EU trade bloc, set to face tariffs up to 50% if it does not come up with a deal the Trump administration finds suitable,' Bishop said. 'However, should the period not be extended for negotiations for key trade partners, this would have a negative impact on the growth outlook.' University of KwaZulu-Natal academic and political analyst Siyabonga Ntombela, encouraged a focus on bolstering the South African economy itself, suggesting that any negative impacts from tariff hikes would also have repercussions for US companies operating in the country. 'The government should focus on growing the South African economy and not worry too much about US-imposed tariff hikes. Remember, there are more than 600 US companies in SA that stand to benefit from a healthy and functioning economy, so anything that will cripple the South African economy will have a direct and adverse impact on these companies too,' Ntombela said. Professor Bonke Dumisa, an independent economic analyst, said that the pause announced by Trump initially worked positively. 'However, it is now a well-accepted fact that Trump's tariff wars have failed; many countries are no longer scared of them. Hence, I do not think any additional days or weeks will make a positive impact. It is precisely for this reason that the USA did not publicly disclose the contents of their international agreement with China,' Dumisa said. BUSINESS REPORT

IOL News
2 hours ago
- IOL News
What South African pensioners should know about July 2025 SASSA grant payments
SASSA conducting a verification process of grant recipients Image: File Thousands of South African pensioners are anxiously awaiting their July 2025 SASSA Old-Age Grant payments, which were scheduled for Wednesday. This comes after the sudden suspension of grants for many in June. While the payments offer critical relief—R2 330 for those aged 75 and older, and R2 310 for those aged 60 to 74— the news follows rising panic over eligibility reviews, means testing, and widespread misinformation. What's happening with the old-age grants? While the July payments are expected to proceed as scheduled, many pensioners were left reeling in June when their grants were suspended without prior warning, prompting outrage from public representatives, civil society, and affected beneficiaries. According to SASSA spokesperson Paseka Letsatsi, the agency and registered credit bureaus flagged approximately 210,000 beneficiaries believed to have undisclosed income that might exceed eligibility thresholds. As a result, grants for June were withheld, and those affected were asked to report to their nearest SASSA offices within 30 days. Why were grants suspended? SASSA says the suspensions are part of an income verification initiative rooted in the Social Assistance Act, which requires all applicants to: Fully declare their income during application. Report any changes in their financial status thereafter. Failure to do so may result in the temporary suspension or permanent termination of grants. Confusion over reapplication and fake news Further fuelling panic was a viral video that falsely claimed pensioners must reapply for their grants or risk losing them after July 1, prompting large crowds at some SASSA offices. However, SASSA has dismissed these claims as misinformation and urged beneficiaries to wait for official confirmation. 'We urge beneficiaries to be aware and wait for official communication from SASSA. Any unauthenticated information should be treated as a rumour,' said Andile Tshona, SASSA's media manager. Income and asset thresholds: Do you still qualify? SASSA's verification process checks whether pensioners exceed the following income and asset limits: The income and asset limits for applicants are as follows: for a single applicant, the monthly income limit is R8,070 with an asset limit of R1,372,800; for a married applicant, the monthly income limit is R16,140 with an asset limit of R2,745,600. Grants may be withheld if recipients' income exceeds these limits, even if the money comes from temporary family support or informal income. Payment dates for July and beyond SASSA's official July 2025 grant schedule is as follows: Old-Age Grants: Wednesday, 2 July Disability Grants: Thursday, 3 July Children's Grants: Friday, 4 July Funds will remain in recipients' accounts once deposited, so there's no need to rush to withdraw on payday, SASSA has advised. Remaining payment dates for 2025: August: Tuesday, 5 August September: Tuesday, 2 September October: Thursday, 2 October November: Tuesday, 4 November December: Tuesday, 2 December This round of grant suspensions is part of cost-cutting and anti-fraud measures initiated by SASSA and the National Treasury, which now include: Monthly cross-referencing with Home Affairs, Correctional Services, and the Unemployment Insurance Fund (UIF). Stricter enforcement of the asset and means test. Encouragement to move from green ID books to smart ID cards to reduce fraud. Despite a R280 billion allocation for social grants in 2025/26, the agency is under pressure to reduce misuse and tighten controls. How to secure or reapply for your grant If you were affected by a suspension or need to apply for the Old-Age Grant, ensure you have the following: Valid South African ID (smart card preferred) Proof of residence Bank statements (last 3 months) Evidence of marital status Proof of income or lack thereof Information on assets or private pensions UIF membership or past employment documentation Will or estate documents if a spouse has passed in the last five years You have 90 days to appeal any unsuccessful application or grant suspension. SASSA contact info For clarification or help: Toll-free: 0800 60 10 11 WhatsApp: +27 82 046 8553 Website: Email: [email protected] Provincial numbers: Eastern Cape: 043 707 6300 Gauteng: 011 241 8320 KZN: 033 846 3324 Western Cape: 021 469 0235 It is worth noting that the full list is available on the SASSA website. SASSA services are free of charge. Never pay anyone for assistance. If you suspect identity theft or fraud: Call the Anti-Corruption Hotline: 0800 701 701 Email: [email protected] SMS: 39772 IOL NEWS