Opinion: Trump's Got It Wrong, Discovering Oil Will Be The Ruin Of Pakistan
U.S. President Donald Trump has declared that Pakistan is sitting on a massive bed of black gold. How does he know this? Because none other than General Asim Munir apparently revealed this to him over lunch at the White House a few weeks ago.
Much to the wheeling-dealing Donald's delight, General Munir also promised that American oil majors, some of whom bankrolled the Republican's campaign, would get first dibs on drilling rights. Trump even quipped Pakistan might one day sell oil to India. Entertaining as the story is, reality paints a different picture.
But suppose a windfall were real. Would it rescue Pakistan's failing state? Hardly. What has oil wealth done to make Gulf states in Pakistan's neighbourhood the meccas of good governance?
The Gulf's glitzy skylines mask closed political systems, migrant exploitation, moral policing, and elites enriched by authoritarianism. Even without oil, Pakistan already shares these features with its Gulf neighbours. It's built not on independent democratic institutions or the brilliance of individual enterprise but tribal patronage networks, military dominance, religious obscurantism. The discovery of hydrocarbons would only deepen the rot. Petro-dollars would fuel corruption, embolden the army, suppress dissent, and bankroll adventurism abroad. Instead of reform, Pakistan would descend further into dysfunction. Possibly even into dissolution.
Far from a lifeline, oil as a primary resource could push the state closer to the brink of implosion.
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