Giant 196-foot-wide killer asteroid could strike Earth in 2032, experts warn
Dubbed 2024 YR4, this asteroid poses a small but concerning threat to Earth. It is estimated to be 196 feet (60 meters) wide, roughly half the length of a football field.
Space.com reported that this near-Earth object (NEO) has a "1 in 83" chance of hitting our planet on December 22, 2032. This asteroid presents one of the highest risks of impact ever observed for an object of this size.
According to NASA's Center of NEO Studies (CNEOS), the asteroid is projected to fly within 66,000 miles (106,200 kilometers) of Earth on this date. It is currently located 27 million miles away from Earth.
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The asteroid 2024 YR4 was first spotted by telescopes in Rio Hurtado, Chile, under the ATLAS project.
Despite the initial estimate of a close approach, uncertainties remain in the asteroid's orbital path. These uncertainties raise the possibility that the calculated close encounter could, in fact, result in a direct impact on Earth.
Due to its collision risk, the asteroid 2024 YR4 has been elevated to the top of both the European Space Agency's and NASA's impact risk lists.
The asteroid has been assigned a rating of three on the Torino risk scale. This rating signifies a close encounter that demands active monitoring by astronomers due to its greater than 1% chance of a potential impact.
However, astronomers are urging people not to worry yet.
'Impact probability is still very low, and the most likely outcome will be a close approaching rock that misses us," David Rankin, Catalina Sky Survey engineer and asteroid hunter, told Space.com.
Rankin suggests that asteroid 2024 YR4 is likely comparable in size to the objects responsible for the 1908 Tunguska event and the Meteor Crater.
If it does hit Earth, it could potentially cause a powerful explosion high in the atmosphere, known as an "airburst." In addition, it could create a large crater upon impact with the ground.
The impact effects are anticipated to be more localized than widespread.
Reportedly, the current predicted impact zone, or "risk corridor," extends from South America across the Atlantic Ocean and reaches South Africa.
Experts highlight that the asteroid's orbit is still poorly understood, making a definitive prediction of impact impossible. The current impact probability is low, and a miss is the most likely scenario.
"This impact corridor estimation will eventually go stale with new observations and better orbit calculations," he informed Space.com.
The potential damage is highly dependent on the asteroid's characteristics, like size and composition. However, these remain uncertain at the moment due to the asteroid's current trajectory. Radar observations, the most effective method for size estimation, are currently impossible.
Astronomers anticipate an opportunity to better estimate the asteroid's characteristics in 2028. Around this time, the asteroid is expected to make a closer, less risky approach to Earth, passing within roughly 5 million miles (8 million kilometers).
For now, astronomers are keeping a close eye on the 2024 YR4 asteroid.
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