2025 college football betting preview: Four games to bet now
These are the games that move the needle — rivalries, playoff shapers and narrative drivers. Remember, by the time these games actually kick off, the lines will look very different. Quarterback changes, injuries, hype cycles and early-season blowouts will reshape perception and change lines.
If you can spot the right angles early, Game of the Year lines offer exceptional value because you're not just betting on a game, you're betting on how the season unfolds.
Here are four early-season matchups that could offer serious closing line value:
Oct. 4: North Carolina at Clemson (-13.5)
When scanning these early lines, I'm hunting for positions the market can't accurately price, until reality sets in. Enter: Bill Belichick coaching North Carolina.
In theory, the Tar Heels should be a solid team. But can we really trust that preseason optimism will hold up by Oct. 4? On the flip side, Clemson — finally embracing the transfer portal after years of resistance — has reloaded with talent. This could be one of Dabo Swinney's most complete rosters in years.
UNC opens the year as an underdog in two of its first four games (vs. TCU in Week 1 and at UCF in Week 4). Meanwhile, Clemson is expected to be a two-touchdown favorite in three of its first four contests. If both teams play to expectation, I see this line drifting up toward -16.5 by kickoff.
Bet: Clemson -13.5
Oct. 4: Boise State at Notre Dame (-16.5 at BetMGM)
Boise State has long punched above its weight: blue turf, trick plays, Kellen Moore, Ashton Jeanty … the whole deal. But with Jeanty gone, this roster doesn't pack the same punch.
Yes, they went toe-to-toe with Oregon last year, but that was the Jeanty show: 7.7 yards per carry, three touchdowns and a 70-yard highlight run. Without that level of game-breaking talent, I see this matchup resembling more of their 2023 opener against Washington, when the Broncos were crushed 56-19.
Notre Dame, meanwhile, could come into this game undefeated. The Fighting Irish are slight favorites against Miami in Week 1 and will be laying more than a touchdown against both Texas A&M (Week 3) and Arkansas (Week 5). If they enter 5-0 with three quality wins, I expect this line to creep closer to -17.5.
Bet: Notre Dame -16.5
Oct. 11: Penn State (-10.5, 46.5) at Iowa
Yes, Iowa's offense might not be a total disaster this year. Yes, quarterback Mark Gronowski transfers in from FCS powerhouse South Dakota State. And yes, there's some excitement.
But I'm not buying it — at least not yet.
Gronowski was terrific at SDSU, leading them to national titles in 2022 and 2023, but that was behind a massive talent gap in the FCS. The jump to the Big Ten will test him immediately. Iowa's early games against Indiana and Wisconsin will give us a clue. If he struggles, the market could quickly adjust expectations back toward reality.
Defensively, Iowa will once again be elite. But offensively? I'm fading the early optimism. This total has room to dip toward 44 if the Hawkeyes' offense sputters.
Bet: Under 46.5
Oct. 18: Texas Tech at Arizona State (-4)
Arizona State is one of the darlings of the 2024 season, but on Oct. 18, it will run into a live 'dog — and my Heisman dark horse Behren Morton.
Texas Tech enters this season with as much upside as any team. The Red Raiders rank second nationally in NIL spending and return their starting QB, who quietly played through a Grade 3 AC joint sprain last year. With health and talent finally aligned, I'm in.
Yes, Arizona State brings back a loaded roster and solid coaching staff, but that momentum has already inflated this number a bit. Before this game, the Sun Devils face Baylor, TCU and Utah — three games in which they could stumble. Meanwhile, Texas Tech's early schedule is soft, and if it handles business, the market will catch up fast.
If the Red Raiders look sharp early, this line likely closes around +1.5.
Bet: Texas Tech +4
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