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To its trading partners, the US is suddenly a predatory rogue state

To its trading partners, the US is suddenly a predatory rogue state

I almost fell out of my seat when on Thursday I opened the South China Morning Post to find a column by Alex Lo
asking : 'Is Donald Trump the real-life Manchurian candidate?' Only the day before had I watched the 2004 film The Manchurian Candidate and found myself asking that exact same question. It seems the entire US political system has suddenly, and dangerously, gone weird on us.
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Dozens of the most meticulous, measured and fact-focused journalists and economists that I have followed, trusted and admired for decades seem suddenly lost for words – at least civilised words – at the breathtaking spectacle of a once-rational Republican Party morphing into a machete-wielding rogue for which lifetime allies have suddenly become enemies, and long-time enemies become trusted friends.
At the Financial Times, Edward Luce described the US president's
100-minute Congress address as 'a fever dream of extravagant promises'; Gideon Rachman said the 'most positive verdict I heard on the
speech ' by US Vice-President J.D. Vance at the Munich Security Conference 'was that it was 'puerile bullshit''. Martin Wolf calls Trump's tariffs 'an act of unjustifiable, indeed economically illiterate, economic warfare'; Maurice Obstfeld sums it all up as 'chainsaw theatrics'.
For those of us in Asia, the fevered antics of Trump and his eccentric team also bear an uncanny resemblance to Mao Zedong and the Gang of Four back in 1966 launching the
Cultural Revolution
They are even using language that smells suspiciously of that dark Chinese decade. Take the
2025 Trade Policy Agenda recently released by US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, a report which opens with: 'The United States of America is the most extraordinary nation the world has ever known.' Noting America's goods trade deficit had soared to over a trillion dollars, the report said: 'President Trump alone recognised the role that trade policy has played in creating these challenges and how trade policy can fix them.'
Jamieson Greer appearing before the Senate Committee on Finance on Capitol Hill, February 6, before he was confirmed as the US Trade Representative. Photo: AP
In his address to Congress, Trump spoke of 'the dawn of the golden age of America' and of 'action to usher in the greatest and most successful era of our country'. He also proclaimed America 'on the verge of a comeback the likes of which the world has never witnessed, and perhaps will never witness again'. It may not quite be the rhetoric of China's
'Great Helmsman' and his
Little Red Book , but it is not many steps behind – and may prove just as naive.
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US tariffs won't stop China's long game in SE Asia
US tariffs won't stop China's long game in SE Asia

AllAfrica

time8 minutes ago

  • AllAfrica

US tariffs won't stop China's long game in SE Asia

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Its logic is straightforward as by having the US specifically target products having as little as 10-20% Chinese content, direct production inside ASEAN makes Washington's market-access blocking increasingly difficult. The move also binds ASEAN economies to Chinese industrial complexes all the more securely via supply deals, shared infrastructure and local employment integration. Another dimension of Beijing's counterplay is to diversify China's outbound investment from its Belt and Road infrastructure construction to ASEAN's production clusters, tech parks and logistic hubs. As such, China ensures that while goods are technically 'ASEAN-made,' financial, technological and logistical pillars thereof remain all strictly aligned with Chinese technology and funds. Such infrastructural presence makes it considerably harder for US trade policy to disrupt China's presence in the region's value chain. At the same time, China is preparing to fill the inevitable gaps left by US-ASEAN trade adjustments. Many ASEAN negotiators have already signaled a willingness to buy more American agricultural products, aircraft and energy, often at higher cost than other suppliers, to placate Washington. But there are sectors where US goods are simply too expensive or fail to meet local requirements. In steel, electronics, textiles, and increasingly in renewable energy equipment, China remains the more competitive supplier. If ASEAN reduces imports of these goods from China to comply with US demands, Beijing can redirect supply to domestic markets or other fast-growing partners, while simultaneously offering ASEAN cooperation in emerging sectors such as electric vehicle (EV) manufacturing and agricultural technology. Such versatility is coming up trumps. During the first half of 2025, China's shipments to Southeast Asia increased 16.6%, while those to the US fell 21.7%. These statistics indicate that although Washington can upset certain flows, it cannot readily compensate for the size and agility China brings to ASEAN's broad economy. Apart from goods, China fills a gap in services and finance. With US tariff policy casting a cloud over ASEAN export planning, Beijing is making financial markets in China accessible, developing renminbi settlement mechanisms and reinforcing measures facilitating trade and decreasing reliance on the US dollar. These measures cushion ASEAN economies against US policy fluctuations and integrate them further into China's financial system. Tone is no less significant than strategy. The warlike tack coming out of Washington, including reports of President Donald Trump boasting about countries 'kissing my ass' to get tariff relief, has backfired on the US across the globe. Such language can generate domestic backlash against leaders who are perceived to be buckling under US pressure. By contrast, Beijing has been careful to refer to its engagement as 'mutually beneficial cooperation' and 'win-win development.' Such gentler, inclusive language works better not only with ASEAN leaders but also resonates well with public opinion and is therefore politically easier for governments to uphold or deepen economic relationships with China. China's signal to ASEAN is already loud and clear: make the best possible deal with the US. Chinese Premier Li Qiang said, 'Facing rising protectionism and unilateralism in some places of the world, we must be committed to expanding opening up and removing barriers.' The implicit message is also loud and clear: China will be waiting to invest, supply and promote. The message makes Beijing the pragmatic counterpart at a time when the US is coming across as unpredictable and crudely transactional. Nevertheless, Beijing needs to be cautious. Push too hard, and it confirms Washington's storyline of ASEAN overdependence on China. Move too gradually, and ASEAN nations might rearrange supply chains in a fashion that actually diminishes Chinese clout. The sweet spot is measured by integration through more joint enterprises, increased domestic employment, vigorous technology diffusion and jointly designed R&D centers. These programs make Chinese engagement not only economically essential but also politically acceptable to a range of different ASEAN governments. Trump's 'reciprocal tariffs' policy is designed to push ASEAN away from China. However, Beijing's counter-steps, from localized production and diverted investment to plugging supply gaps and deepening financial links, underscore China's long-game strategy in the region. For ASEAN, the most sustainable course is still balancing diversified trade with both powers. For China, the key is to make its economic presence in Southeast Asia too deep and too valuable to be uprooted. If Beijing can achieve this balancing act, the very policies designed to weaken its influence in the region could end up bolstering them, not through public posturing, but through low-key, measured integration driving the very heart of ASEAN's economic future. Bilal Habib Qazi is an independent researcher based in Pakistan with a PhD in international relations from Jilin University in China. His research interests span geopolitics and strategic competition, foreign policy analysis, international security and regional order, as well as global governance and international organizations. He may be reached at bhqazi@

Trade truce extension cushions HK stocks
Trade truce extension cushions HK stocks

RTHK

time2 hours ago

  • RTHK

Trade truce extension cushions HK stocks

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Why Japan, South Korea and EU couldn't join forces against Trump
Why Japan, South Korea and EU couldn't join forces against Trump

South China Morning Post

time3 hours ago

  • South China Morning Post

Why Japan, South Korea and EU couldn't join forces against Trump

Before the Trump administration's August 1 deadline, Japan South Korea and the European Union struck agreements with the United States, accepting American tariffs of 15 per cent on their exports. They all came with strings of promised investments in the US attached. While the agreements looked like capitulation at the time, these governments may be breathing sighs of relief in light of the latest tariffs US President Donald Trump has imposed on Canada, Brazil and India. But 15 per cent is still higher than the 10 per cent baseline rate enjoyed by Russia, Iran, the UK and Australia. Leaving aside the potential long-term damage to US industries and consumers, Trump may congratulate himself on prevailing against major trading partners. After threatening them with high tariffs, he pushed them into accepting more 'reasonable' one-way tariffs. From Trump's perspective, these are fair consideration for the security protection the US has long provided to its Asian and European allies. It is against this backdrop that these allies could not drive harder trade bargains. Trump was able to divide and conquer these major economies. The deal Japan reached essentially set a benchmark for the EU and South Korea to follow. Unlike China, these economies are all major auto exporters to America. With Chinese EVs facing tariffs of more than 100 per cent, China does not sell many cars in the US. During the Cold War, the US allowed Japan and South Korea one-way access to its vast auto market, arguably at the expense of its domestic car industry. Since the late 1980s, Trump has been fascinated with tariffs, triggered by the perceived injustice with Japan. Thus, they should be seen as his attempt to redress the historical imbalance.

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