Liberals were just 611 votes from a majority government. Here's how

Vancouver Sun

30-04-2025

Article content
With the dust mostly settled on the 2025 federal election, the Liberals won 169 seats in the House of Commons for a minority government, but how close were they to nabbing three ridings that would have secured a majority?
Article content
Article content
A mere 611 votes across two Ontario ridings and Nunavut.
Article content
That's according to the fact-checking and quick math by Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Ottawa-based Pollara Strategic Insights and a former pollster for prime minister Justin Trudeau, who posted his findings to X on Tuesday.
Article content
Article content
The Liberals finish just 611 votes away from a majority.
— Dan Arnold (@calgarygrit) April 29, 2025
Article content
It might be cliche, but Arnold said the results serve as a reminder that every vote really does count.
Article content
Article content
'This is an election where that's the case, because there is a real difference between a majority and a minority in terms of the long-term life of a government,' he said.
Article content
Arnold zeroed in on the three closest races that could have tipped the Liberals into a majority had they won them. National Post examined Elections Canada data for the ridings to confirm Arnold's findings.
Article content
In Milton East–Halton Hills South, Conservative Parm Gill — a Stephen Harper-era MP — edged Liberal Kristina Tesser Derksen by 298 votes (32,186 to 31,888). Further south in Windsor–Tecumseh–Lakeshore, Tory Kathy Borrelli finished 233 ballots ahead of Liberal incumbent Irek Kusmierczyk (31,901 to 31,668).
Article content
Article content
Meanwhile, in Nunavut, where turnout was lowest anywhere in Canada at barely over 36 per cent, NDP MP Lori Idlout had 77 more supporters to retain her seat against Liberal challenger Kilikvak Kabloona (2,945 to 2,868).
Article content