Latest news with #DanArnold
Calgary Herald
26-05-2025
- Politics
- Calgary Herald
Poll shows Albertans support monarchy, despite growing separatist threat
Article content OTTAWA — A new poll shows that Albertans support the continuation of Crown rule in the province, even as they're increasingly skeptical about the province's future in Canada. Article content Article content The poll, taken by Pollara Strategic Insights, finds that support for the monarchy is at a net plus-nine in Alberta, with 46 per cent of Albertans saying that Canada should remain a constitutional monarchy with the King as its head of state, and 37 per cent saying it should ditch the Crown. Article content Article content This put Alberta three points ahead of British Columbia and 42 points ahead of Quebec, where just 25 per cent of respondents said Canada should keep its ties to the monarchy. Article content Article content Dan Arnold, the chief strategy officer at Pollara, says he expects the question of the monarchy to loom larger as separatists get into the nitty gritty of what an independent Alberta would look like. Article content 'There's a lot of hanging questions out there and this is another one that could potentially become a source of friction,' said Arnold. Article content Debate has recently surfaced online about whether residents of an independent Alberta would have an option to keep Canadian passports and stay enrolled in the CPP, for example. Article content Arnold noted that supporters of the governing United Conservative Party were a net plus-10 in favour of the continuation of Crown rule (48 per cent to 38 per cent). Article content Article content Recent polls show up to two-thirds of UCP voters would vote 'yes' in a referendum on Alberta independence. Article content Article content The Pollara poll, taken on the heels of King Charles III's first visit to Canada as monarch this week, finds the king has a net favourability rating of plus-22 among Albertans — 46 per cent view him positively while 24 per cent view him negatively. Article content The findings were drawn from on online sample of 500 Albertans contacted between May 16 and 20, with an estimated margin of error of plus-or-minus 4.4 per cent. Article content 'There are a lot of people in our movement who are either monarchists, or at the very least ambivalent to the continued role of the monarchy within the Commonwealth of Alberta,' Rath told the National Post in an interview.
National Post
26-05-2025
- Politics
- National Post
Poll shows Albertans support monarchy, despite growing separatist threat
OTTAWA — A new poll shows that Albertans support the continuation of Crown rule in the province, even as they're increasingly skeptical about the province's future in Canada. Article content Article content The poll, taken by Pollara Strategic Insights, finds that support for the monarchy is at a net plus-nine in Alberta, with 46 per cent of Albertans saying that Canada should remain a constitutional monarchy with the king as its head of state, and 37 per cent saying it should ditch the Crown. Article content This put Alberta three points ahead of British Columbia and 42 points ahead of Quebec, where just 25 per cent of respondents said Canada should keep its ties to the monarchy. Article content Dan Arnold, the chief strategy officer at Pollara, says he expects the question of the monarchy to loom larger as separatists get into the nitty gritty of what an independent Alberta would look like. Article content 'There's a lot of hanging questions out there and this is another one that could potentially become a source of friction,' said Arnold. Article content Debate has recently surfaced online about whether residents of an independent Alberta would have an option to keep Canadian passports and stay enrolled in the CPP, for example. Article content Arnold noted that supporters of the governing United Conservative Party were a net plus-10 in favour of the continuation of Crown rule (48 per cent to 38 per cent). Article content Recent polls show up to two-thirds of UCP voters would vote 'yes' in a referendum on Alberta independence. Article content Jeff Rath, a lawyer with the Alberta Prosperity Project, says there's room for both monarchists and republicans in the Alberta separatist movement. Article content Article content 'There are a lot of people in our movement who are either monarchists, or at the very least ambivalent to the continued role of the monarchy within the Commonwealth of Alberta,' Rath told the National Post in an interview. Article content Rath, who's worked extensively in treaty law, says the Crown could be a bridge to Alberta's Indigenous population during the transition to independence. Article content 'If one of the conditions the First Nations put on independence is… instead of having a (civilian) head of state we talk to King Charles and have a Governor General, so that they can maintain that relationship with the Crown and their treaties, I personally wouldn't have any issue with that,' said Rath.
National Post
12-05-2025
- Politics
- National Post
It's not just Alberta flirting with western separatism now: Full Comment podcast
Torn at for nine years by the divisive Trudeau Liberals, Canadian unity is seriously frayed, with Alberta now preparing for a possible secession referendum. In this episode, Brian Lilley talks with Reform party founder Preston Manning, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and longtime Liberal pollster Dan Arnold to get a sense of how dire the situation has become. Manning explains that the separatist sentiment isn't just in Alberta but spread across much of the West and even parts of the North. And all three warn that the threat needs to be taken seriously. They also consider the opportunity Prime Minister Mark Carney has with a fresh mandate to begin repairing the fractures if he's genuinely willing to. But if he isn't, the nation is in serious danger. (Recorded May 9, 2025.)
Vancouver Sun
30-04-2025
- Politics
- Vancouver Sun
Liberals were just 611 votes from a majority government. Here's how
Article content With the dust mostly settled on the 2025 federal election, the Liberals won 169 seats in the House of Commons for a minority government, but how close were they to nabbing three ridings that would have secured a majority? Article content Article content A mere 611 votes across two Ontario ridings and Nunavut. Article content That's according to the fact-checking and quick math by Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Ottawa-based Pollara Strategic Insights and a former pollster for prime minister Justin Trudeau, who posted his findings to X on Tuesday. Article content Article content The Liberals finish just 611 votes away from a majority. — Dan Arnold (@calgarygrit) April 29, 2025 Article content It might be cliche, but Arnold said the results serve as a reminder that every vote really does count. Article content Article content 'This is an election where that's the case, because there is a real difference between a majority and a minority in terms of the long-term life of a government,' he said. Article content Arnold zeroed in on the three closest races that could have tipped the Liberals into a majority had they won them. National Post examined Elections Canada data for the ridings to confirm Arnold's findings. Article content In Milton East–Halton Hills South, Conservative Parm Gill — a Stephen Harper-era MP — edged Liberal Kristina Tesser Derksen by 298 votes (32,186 to 31,888). Further south in Windsor–Tecumseh–Lakeshore, Tory Kathy Borrelli finished 233 ballots ahead of Liberal incumbent Irek Kusmierczyk (31,901 to 31,668). Article content Article content Meanwhile, in Nunavut, where turnout was lowest anywhere in Canada at barely over 36 per cent, NDP MP Lori Idlout had 77 more supporters to retain her seat against Liberal challenger Kilikvak Kabloona (2,945 to 2,868). Article content
Calgary Herald
30-04-2025
- Politics
- Calgary Herald
Liberals were just 611 votes from a majority government. Here's how
Article content With the dust mostly settled on the 2025 federal election, the Liberals won 169 seats in the House of Commons for a minority government, but how close were they to nabbing three ridings that would have secured a majority? Article content A mere 611 votes across two Ontario ridings and Nunavut. Article content That's according to the fact-checking and quick math by Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Ottawa-based Pollara Strategic Insights and a former pollster for prime minister Justin Trudeau, who posted his findings to X on Tuesday. Article content Article content The Liberals finish just 611 votes away from a majority. — Dan Arnold (@calgarygrit) April 29, 2025 Article content It might be cliche, but Arnold said the results serve as a reminder that every vote really does count. Article content Article content 'This is an election where that's the case, because there is a real difference between a majority and a minority in terms of the long-term life of a government,' he said. Article content Arnold zeroed in on the three closest races that could have tipped the Liberals into a majority had they won them. National Post examined Elections Canada data for the ridings to confirm Arnold's findings. Article content In Milton East–Halton Hills South, Conservative Parm Gill — a Stephen Harper-era MP — edged Liberal Kristina Tesser Derksen by 298 votes (32,186 to 31,888). Further south in Windsor–Tecumseh–Lakeshore, Tory Kathy Borrelli finished 233 ballots ahead of Liberal incumbent Irek Kusmierczyk (31,901 to 31,668). Article content Article content Meanwhile, in Nunavut, where turnout was lowest anywhere in Canada at barely over 36 per cent, NDP MP Lori Idlout had 77 more supporters to retain her seat against Liberal challenger Kilikvak Kabloona (2,945 to 2,868). Article content
