OPEC forecasts stable crude exports from Africa until 2035
The report predicts that Africa's total crude and condensate exports will remain stable at around 5.2 million barrels per day (bpd) through 2035, but by 2050, they are expected to decline to 4.2 million bpd due to rising domestic demand and strategic value addition.
Domestic crude use is expected to rise from 1.8 million bpd in 2024 to 4.5 million bpd by 2050, nearly tripling over the outlook period.
This growth is tied to Africa's demographic boom, industrial expansion, and a push to enhance local refining and downstream infrastructure.
Global trade patterns are shifting, offering new opportunities for African producers.
Exports to Europe are expected to increase to a peak of 3 million bpd in 2030, before gradually tapering to 2.3 million bpd by 2050.
The Asia-Pacific region is emerging as a more prominent long-term partner, with African crude exports remaining stable at 1.9 million bpd through 2030, then rising modestly to 2.2 million bpd by 2040 before easing to 1.8 million bpd by 2050.
Trade with the US and Canada is expected to fall to 100,000 bpd by 2045, as competition from Latin America intensifies. -OGN / TradeArabia News Service
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