Population projected to exceed 386m mark by 2050: minister
The high-level meeting on population management concluded with consensus on establishing a National Population Commission under the leadership of the prime minister, with representation from all four provinces.
Minister Iqbal instructed the stakeholders that the proposed commission be tasked with setting targets, ensuring accountability, and driving a unified national strategy on population management.
The minister said that population is a provincial subject after 18th amendment, and provinces are responsible for service delivery in family planning and reproductive health, population dynamics affect national priorities. 'Without national coordination and strategic alignment, fragmented efforts will continue to under deliver.' The minister also highlighted that Pakistan's population challenge poses numerous problems in the lives of millions of young people entering adulthood 'without access to quality education, skills training, or meaningful employment.'
'Population planning has far-reaching consequences on all aspects of a citizen's life—health, education, employment. Everything depends on the size of the family,' said Iqbal. Highlighting the demographic challenge, he noted that Pakistan is now the fifth most populous country in the world, with 80 per cent of the population under the age of 40 and 66 per cent below 30. 'These figures are alarming,' he said, stressing that the federal and provincial governments must work in unison to address the growing crisis.
The meeting brought together key stakeholders from government and international organisations, including Health Minister Mustafa Kemal, Religious Affairs Minister Sardar Muhammad Yousaf, Information Minister Attaullah Tarar, Senator Rubina Khalid, Chairperson of BISP, and Senator Sherry Rehman who attended online.
Dr Zeba Sattar, Country Director of the Population Council; Dr Luay Shabaneh, UNFPA Representative in Pakistan; Dapeng Lu, WHO Representative; Dr Samia Rizwan from Maternal Newborn and Child Health Project, UNICEF; and Dr Soofia, DG Population, Ministry of Health participated in the meeting.
Provincial health secretaries and population welfare department directors also attended online. Planning Minister's Member Social Sector Dr Saima Bashir coordinated the meeting and presented a briefing during which she stated that key facts. Forty percent of our population has never attended school, and only 25 percent of women are in the labour force, she stated.
Emphasising on the structural problem in the current National Finance Commission Award Formula, he stated that the criteria of 82 per cent provincial share based on population size creates a perverse disincentive for provinces. The current criteria mean that reducing population growth could reduce the future fiscal allocations of provinces. The minister further said, 'Without revisiting this formula, provincial commitment to population stabilisation will remain weak.'
Federal Minister Iqbal directed the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics to provide disaggregated data by province to identify problem areas more precisely. He stated that the results of Digital Census of 2023 showed that Pakistan's population has now reached 241.49 million, with a growth rate of 2.55 per cent. This marks a significant increase of 33.82 million people since the 2017 census.
The meeting discussed Planning Ministry's proposal for creation of a high-powered commission led by the prime minister and comprising all four chief ministers to tackle the unprecedented problem of population management. Senator Sherry Rehman underscored the urgency of the population growth crisis, stating, 'Every 50 minutes, a woman in Pakistan loses her child during childbirth.' She supported the creation of a high-powered commission led by the prime minister and comprising all four Chief ministers, noting that a national emergency could be declared after its first meeting.
The fragmentation of responsibilities following the 18th Amendment was cited by Information Minister Attaullah Tarar as a major obstacle. He also stressed that the influence of religious clerics continues to hinder population control efforts and advocated for area-specific campaigns targeting rural women at places like utility stores, basic health units, and markets. 'With 54 million TikTok users in Pakistan, social media is an untapped asset for public service messaging,' he added.
Minister for Religious Affairs Sardar Muhammad Yousaf supported leveraging the Council of Common Interests and religious leadership to promote responsible family planning.
Senator Rubina Khalid called for a wide-reaching awareness drive led by the Ministry of Information and offered BISP's support for counselling and outreach across the country. 'We must raise this issue at every forum, including Parliament,' she said. Dr Zeba Sattar noted that previous task forces lacked executive power and therefore failed to create meaningful impact. 'It's not about individual effort; we need institutional strength and mandate,' she stated. Dr Samia Rizwan of UNICEF warned that maternal and newborn health campaigns often fail to reach grassroots levels and highlighted the staggering figure of 30 newborn deaths every hour. 'Government investment is crucial. The process starts before a child is born. Communities must be made custodians of the issue,' she said.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
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