Analyzing the Kentucky Derby 2025 field: Favorites, contenders and long shots
After three years in exile from Churchill Downs, Bob Baffert is back. The famed trainer was banned from the Louisville track in 2021 after his Kentucky Derby winner, Medina Spirit, failed a post-race blood test. Now, the man who is tied for the most Kentucky Derby wins (six) is back, though one of his two entries was scratched Thursday. However, his remaining entrant still has a shot to win.
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Handicapping the Derby is unlike handicapping pretty much any other race. None of the horses has run the 10-furlong distance. None of them has run in a 20-horse field. None of them has experienced the frenzy that is the Derby crowd. Pace scenarios can dissolve as soon as the gates open, traffic is virtually a given and, sometimes, you need more luck than skill to earn the blanket of roses.
So here, we'll focus on running styles and performances in top-level races, in the hope of getting horses home at good prices.
In post-position order, here's your look at the field for the 151st Kentucky Derby. Odds referenced are morning line odds from when the field was set April 26. For the most recent odds on the field, visit our updating odds page.
Owner: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Stonestreet Stables, Dianne Bashor, Determined Stables, Robert Masterson, Tom Ryan, Waves Edge Capital, and Catherine Donovan
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Martin Garcia
Morning line odds: 20-1
One of the standouts in this year's crop of 3-year-olds, Citizen Bull had won four of five races, all comfortably, all in stakes races, before heading into the Santa Anita Derby earlier this month. But a puzzling fourth-place finish at Santa Anita certainly raises questions, as the inveterate frontrunner was in his customary place in the lead when he yielded down the stretch. Granted, the top two finishers in that race are very good horses — and both are entered here, with winner Journalism the favorite and Baeza joining the field as an alternate — but proceed with caution. If Citizen Bull doesn't get to the lead right away, and that's a big ask from post 1, he has no shot.
Owner: C2 Racing Stable, Ian Parsard, Shining Stables, Stefania Farms, Ken Reimer, Paul Braverman, and Timothy Pinch
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Trainer: Saffie A. Joseph Jr.
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Morning line odds: 30-1
He's winless in graded stakes, and the speed figure in his last race, a third-place finish in the Grade 1 Florida Derby, is the lowest of any other entrant's most recent performance. He's another that needs the lead to be competitive, but even if he gets there, he doesn't have enough speed to compete with the other horses.
Owner: Juddmonte
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Luan Machado
Morning line odds: 30-1
Juddmonte's racing and breeding operations are among the best on the planet, and they don't mess around. Still, one wonders just what this horse is doing in this race. He's never raced on dirt, his four races having been contested on turf and synthetic surfaces, and his lone start outside of the maiden ranks came in March. That was a Grade 3, sure, and he did win by 3 1/2 lengths, but I'm not seeing it.
Owner: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Stonestreet Stables, Dianne Bashor, Determined Stables, Robert Masterson, Tom Ryan, Waves Edge Capital, and Catherine Donovan
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Mike Smith
Scratched Thursday by Baffert, Rodriguez won't run in the Derby. With this decision, Baeza enters the field and the other qualifiers will move one slot closer to the rail. More on Baeza below.
Owner: BC Stables
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Jockey: Nik Juarez
Morning line odds: 30-1
As his win in the Preakness with Seize the Grey last year demonstrated, never discount 89-year-old D. Wayne Lukas. A lot will have to go right for this horse and wrong with a lot of other runners, so I wouldn't bet the farm on him, but the speed figure in his last start impressed. That said, he's never even hit the board in a graded stakes race, he's been beaten several times by other runners here and he's another that's going to want to get to the front. You want to root for a story and for Lukas to get his fifth Derby win? Wager lightly.
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Owner: Junko Kondo
Trainer: Yukihiro Kato
Jockey: Christophe Lemaire
Morning line odds: 30-1
Over the last decade, U.S. racing entities have aggressively wooed international runners, many of which, like this one, boast American bloodlines. Admire Daytona earned his way into the race by winning the UAE Derby in Dubai, eking out a nose win in a race that carries Kentucky Derby qualifying points. There's no doubt that Japanese-trained horses are on the rise, but the first Japanese Kentucky Derby winner will have to wait. The international travel is a drawback, as is a race record for Admire Daytona that, while respectable, doesn't inspire confidence.
Owner: Koichi Nishikawa
Trainer: Noriyuki Hori
Jockey: João Moreira
Morning line odds: 15-1
This Japanese runner earned points in the Japan series of qualifying races, winning the Fukuryu and Hyacinth Stakes. He comes to the Derby with four straight wins, and he's sired by 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. His record is impressive, and while I wouldn't rule him out, this is a big ask.
Owner: Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, Bridlewood Farm, Don Alberto Stable, Robert LaPenta, Elayne Stables 5, Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor and Derrick Smith
Trainer: Michael McCarthy
Jockey: Umberto Rispoli
Morning line odds: 3-1
After finishing third in his first start last October, this $825,000 yearling purchase has reeled off four straight wins, three of them in graded stakes races. His speed figures tower over those of most of his rivals here, and he's got a stalking running style that means that he can sit in the second tier of runners before finding space to run late. If Journalism makes the post-race headlines, it will be the first Derby win for both trainer and jockey.
Owner: Whitham Thoroughbreds
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Trainer: Ian Wilkes
Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.
Morning line odds: 12-1
Wilkes is one of those trainers who doesn't run in big races just for the sake of it. Burnham Square turned in two impressive performances to earn his way here, a 1 3/4-length win in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park and a nose victory in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. He comes from off the pace, which is an advantageous running style, though he is perhaps not quite fast enough to hit the wire first.
Owner: Repole Stable (Mike Repole)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: John Velazquez
Morning line odds: 20-1
Mike Repole has become a fixture at the Kentucky Derby, but his profile is quite a bit lower than it has been in past years, when he came with high hopes to get his first Derby win. Grande is a good deal less accomplished than his other Derby runners (or prospective Derby runners — twice, his horses have been scratched within a day of the race), having run only three times, all of them this year. A second-place finish in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct in early April got him here; prior to that, he'd never run in a stakes race. Both jockey and trainer are in the Hall of Fame and are Derby veterans: Velazquez has won this race three times, Pletcher twice. Grande came from off the pace in his last race, a departure from his usual place in front, perhaps in a test to see whether the horse can take back in a race like this. He'll need to take a gigantic step forward to compete here, and I'll look for him down the road in the summer races.
Owner: Two Eight Racing (Jayson Werth), Berry Family Racing, and Kaleta Racing
Trainer: Whit Beckman
Jockey: Joseph Ramos
Morning line odds: 30-1
Here's another that squeaked his way into the Derby field at the last minute, running second in a qualifying race in March. That was his first test not on turf, but Turfway Park runs on a synthetic surface, meaning that this runner will be making his first start on dirt in a huge field with experienced, talented runners. Pass.
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Owner: Godolphin
Trainer: Brendan Walsh
Jockey: Manuel Franco
Morning line odds: 20-1
The buzz on this horse has run hot and cold since he debuted with an eight-length win at Ellis Park last August. In his second start, he won the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity, then faltered badly in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and the Risen Star Stakes. A narrow loss in the Blue Grass put him squarely back in the Derby picture, but as another need-the-lead type, I think he's outclassed here.
Owner: Gus King and Estate of Brereton C. Jones
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Morning line odds: 20-1
Anyone with me on the Journalism/Publisher exacta hunch bet? A hunch might be the only way to convince yourself to bet this horse, which has never — NEVER — won a race. In seven lifetime starts, he's got two seconds and three thirds, and those finishes earned him enough points to get into the race. It would indeed be breaking news for a maiden to win the Derby.
Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds, Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor and Derrick Smith
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Morning line odds: 20-1
After a couple of good races as a 2-year-old, this colt has made it to the winner's circle only once in five races going back to last October. As the competition has gotten tougher, he's found it hard to keep up, though his closing style may help him complete some vertical exotics.
Owner: Baccari Racing Stable, Dream Walkin Farms, MJM Racing, Rocket Ship Racing and Magdalena Racing (Sherri McPeek)
Trainer: Ken McPeek
Jockey: Julien Leparoux
Morning line odds: 30-1
McPeek won both the Oaks and Derby last year, and he's got runners in both again this year. This colt is unlikely to get him back to the Churchill winner's circle on Saturday. Winless since breaking his maiden last October, he's seldom been competitive, and while analyzing jockey changes can be a fool's errand, the jockey who rode McPeek's horses to Oaks and Derby victory last year is on another horse in the race this year.
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Thursday morning, McPeek told Stephen Andress the colt is suffering from a quarter crack. While this is not a serious injury, keep in mind this is the ailment that plagued 2008 Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Big Brown ahead of his Triple Crown attempt in the Belmont Stakes. Big Brown ended up being eased in that race. Proceed accordingly.
Owner: Norman Stables
Trainer: Lonnie Briley
Jockey: Juan Vargas
Morning line odds: 30-1
A pretty consistent runner in listed stakes races, Coal Battle impressed when taking the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs in his first jump into graded stakes company. He followed that up with a distance third-place finish last out, and while his versatile running style could be useful here, so would an additional burst of speed, which he's thus far not shown in his eight-race career.
Owner: D.J. Stable, St. Elias Stable, West Point Thoroughbreds, and CJ Stables
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: José Ortiz
Morning line odds: 6-1
This impressively bred colt brought $1.2 million as a 2-year-old a year ago March, and in eight races since then, he's earned back his purchase price, winning the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby and placing in three other graded stakes. His late-closing style won't be hampered by this outside post, and while two of his worst races have come over the Churchill Downs track, I expect him to be well in the mix and will try to beat Journalism with him.
Owner: Godolphin
Trainer: Bill Mott
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Morning line odds: 5-1
Bill Mott isn't the sort of trainer who will enter just to have a horse in the Derby, so even though this horse is fairly lightly raced, especially his campaign this year, he gets a long look from me. In his first start off a five-month layoff, he won the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes by a neck, then came back to finish second in the Grade 1 Florida Derby. He's a closer in a race loaded with speed, and his connections are impeccable.
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Owner: Terry L. Stephens
Trainer: Ethan West
Jockey: Jareth Loveberry
Morning line odds: 30-1
This long shot is getting a lot of attention from racing insiders. He cost a mere $2,500 as a yearling, and he began his career on the synthetic surface at Turfway Park in December. After two starts (a win and a second), he headed to Louisiana and the Derby trail to run in two qualifying races, finishing second in both of them. He's another one who likes to run from off the pace, and this is a big ask, but what a story it would be.
Owner: Flying Dutchmen
Trainer: Brian Lynch
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Morning line odds: 30-1
This promising colt looked great until his final prep, the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland in early April. He'd been first or second in five of six races, but a bad break in the Blue Grass left him with a sixth-place finish, not exactly how you want to head into the Derby. He's also another speed horse, and this far outside post does him absolutely no favors. I'll look for him down the road, not in this spot.
Owner: C R K Stable and Grandview Equine
Trainer: John Shirreffs
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Morning line odds: 12-1
With Rodriguez scratching Thursday afternoon, Baeza has drawn in. He'll break from post position No. 20, and given his frontrunning style, he won't have any easy task getting to the lead from the far outside. He didn't debut until last December, and it was an inauspicious debut at that, finishing ninth. But that race was on grass, and he was a different animal when he got on dirt, earning a win and two seconds in three starts. That included a runner-up finish by less than a length to Derby favorite Journalism in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. If Prat can harness that early speed while the others duel up front, he could easily be in contention at the end, given the impressive speed figure for Baeza's last-out effort in the Santa Anita Derby. While I'd like to see more experience before he jumps into the madness that is the Derby field, he may well prove a formidable foe.
(Photo of Journalism: Andy Lyons / Getty Images)
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Yahoo
3 hours ago
- Yahoo
The Derby 2025: horse-by-horse guide to all the runners
Al Wasl Storm Trainer/jockey Owen Burrows/David Probert, stall 13 One of two runners in the green and white silks of Ahmad al Shaikh, whose twin passions in racing appear to be having runners in the Derby and paying as little as possible to buy them. It is a hard approach to knock, however, as Khalifa Sat, at 150-1, and Hoo Ya Mal, at 50-1, reached the frame in 2020 and 2022 respectively. Advertisement In terms of value at least, the owner has excelled himself here, having paid €7,000 for the son of an obscure stallion Affinisea (so obscure that even his trainer admits he had to look him up when al Shaikh's latest purchase turned up on his doorstep). That said, a realistic view of his form – unraced at two, three runs since April, one minor win – gives him next to no chance of success, so each-way backers hoping for lightning to strike a third time are relying on the fact that, like his high-achieving predecessors, he can't read the form book. Damysus John & Thady Gosden/James Doyle, stall 15 One of the least experienced in the field with three outings in the book and it showed behind Pride Of Arras in the Dante at York last time. He took a few strides to go through the gears, edging left, before running on to finish second, one-and-a-quarter lengths behind the winner. He did not see a racecourse until December and the rough edges in the Dante offer encouragement there is significant improvement to come,. Definitely an unusual profile for a potential Derby winner – maiden win on the all-weather in December, then two defeats at the start of his three-year-old season – but the talent is probably there if this unique test does not prove to be a step too far at this early stage of his career. Delacroix Aidan O'Brien/Ryan Moore, stall 14 Effectively confirmed as favourite when Ryan Moore plumped for the ride on Wednesday from three Aidan O'Brien options and there was a lot to like about the way he put nearly three lengths between himself and the runner-up in Leopardstown's Derby Trial last month. He had solid, progressive form in his juvenile season too, culminating in defeat by a nose in the Group One Futurity at Doncaster, and the 12-furlong trip should be right up his street. The Leopardstown trial has not highlighted a Derby winner since 2002, however, and it was his seventh race, which leaves less room for improvement than most of his opponents Whether the pluses and minuses make him a genuine 3-1 shot is the first question every punter needs to consider. There are tempting options at better odds, and with more room scope for improvement, if they decide against it. Green Storm Charlie Johnston/Billy Loughnane, stall eight The other half ofal Shaikh's two-pronged attack and his second-string behind Al Wasl Storm according to the betting, although since both are priced in three figures the concept of a first string is perhaps irrelevant. In typical al Shaikh fashion, he cost relative peanuts, having been knocked down for €12,000 as a yearling (Damysus cost nearly 50 times as much). He has already repaid that several times over after finishing one-and-a-half lengths behind Tennessee Storm in a French Group One event last October. Likely to be remembered only as the first Derby ride for the 19-year-old Billy Loughnane, the fastest-rising young star in the weighing room. Lambourn Aidan O'Brien/Wayne Lordan, stall 10 The third-string in his trainer's challenge for a record-extending 11th Derby according to the betting, but since only three of O'Brien's winners set off as the clear favourite, that is perhaps not quite the red flag it may seem. Rain would be in his favour as he stayed on strongly to win the Chester Vase over an extended 12 furlongs last time out and also has winning form on soft ground, albeit in a weak event at the remote French racing outpost of Craon. Likely to be staying on most strongly in the closing stages, though the obvious concern is that a lack of tactical speed early in the race will leave him with too much to do. Lazy Griff Charlie Johnston/Christophe Soumillon, stall three Finished just over a length behind the winner when second in the Chester Vase last month, which is a near-facsimile of the profile Wings Of Eagles brought before his 40-1 Derby victory in 2017. Adayar, in 2021, was another recent winner who was beaten in his trial and with jockey Christophe Soumillon flying in can catch the eye of each-way punters. Any rain will be in his favour. Midak Francis-Henri Graffard/Mickael Barzalona, stall four This year's race is being run in memory of Aga Khan IV, who died in February and whose five Derby winners as an owner included Shergar, whose 10-length winning margin in 1981 remains the record. This late arrival will carry the same green and red colours to the start. It is clearly asking a lot for him to bring them back again in similar style, but he remains unbeaten after three starts and showed a fine turn of foot to quicken clear in the Prix Greffulhe at Saint-Cloud in May – the same race Pour Moi, the last French-trained Derby winner and with Mickael Barzalona in the saddle to boot, used as their stepping stone to Epsom immortality in 2011. New Ground Henri Devin/Alexis Pouchin, stall 17 The powerful Juddmonte operation stumped up £75k to add Henri Devin's colt to the field so he has clearly been showing a good deal more at home than he has on the track. He has finished a close third – at Longchamp and Chantilly – on his two outings this year. In the first of those, he was less than a length behind Andre Fabre's Cualificar, who finished a half-length behind the winner (and from a much wider draw) in the French Derby at Chantilly last Sunday. The 12-furlong trip is also likely to see further improvement. The case in his favour is based on ifs, buts and maybes and he will do well to reach the fourth place required to get his entry fee back. Nightime Dancer Richard Hannon/Jamie Spencer, stall nine Set off as an unfancied 9-1 shot for the Lingfield Derby Trial – which looks below-par this year – and was beaten nearly four lengths behind Aidan O'Brien's Puppet Master, who was taken out of this race before the final declarations. Has masses of stamina in his pedigree but rather less of the speed a Derby winner needs to go with it. The St Leger already looks a more convincing option even if he is up to running in Group One company (and the jury is out on that too). Nightwalker John & Thady Gosden/Tom Marquand, stall five Finished fifth of 11 in the Dante Stakes at York last month, three-and-a-half lengths behind Pride Of Arras and two-and-a-quarter behind his stable companion, Damysus. Since that was his fifth start there is no obvious reason why he should improve past either of those colts, who have fewer miles on the clock. Bare form does not tell the whole story as he fell out of the stalls and was well off the pace before making eye-catching progress. He joined Damysus on a jaunt down the hill and around Tattenham Corner on gallops morning last week and handled the track well. He seems sure to improve for the mile-and-a-half trip and a top-four finish may not be beyond him. Advertisement Uttoxeter: 2.00 Miss Goldfire 2.30 Ernest Gray 3.00 Lost Connections 3.30 Baltray 4.00 Hecouldbetheone 4.33 Auntie Maggie 5.05 Crystal Mer. Hamilton: 2.12 Blue Nguru 2.42 Betweenthesticks 3.12 Sea Legend 3.42 Korker 4.12 Yermanthere 4.43 Sir Garfield (nap) 5.17 Arch Legend. Lingfield: 2.20 Dubai Harbour 2.50 Blewburton 3.20 Keybaar 3.50 Gallant 4.25 Touchwood 4.55 Maid In Chelsea. Chelmsford City: 5.00 Eclipser 5.35 Nifty 6.05 Smokey Malone 6.35 Hot Dancer 7.07 Danza Parigina 7.42 Maxident 8.17 Ornately (nb) 8.47 City Captain. Ffos Las: 6.15 Reina Del Mar 6.45 Unspeakable 7.20 Gavin 7.55 Ferret Jeeter 8.30 You Say Nothing 9.00 Twist Of Fatecatch. Pride Of Arras Ralph Beckett/Rossa Ryan, stall 16 A skim through the list of Derby winners of the past 25 years may suggest the days when a small owner-breeder could mix it with the big guns from Godolphin, Coolmore and Juddmonte are long gone. This year's Dante Stakes winner, though, may beg to differ. David and Vimy Aykroyd have four mares at their Yorkshire stud farm and their once-raced colt by up-and-coming sire New Bay was an 18-1 shot for his trial at York. He showed all the attributes you would look for in a Derby winner – tactical speed, balance, a turn of foot and a willingness to quicken between horses – on the way to victory. His best days are ahead of him with two runs in the book. Soft ground could be a concern – though the same is true for many of his rivals – but he stayed on well on Knavesmire, should get the trip and is a must for any shortlist. Rogue Impact James Owen/Luke Morris, stall one As ever, there is a scattering of runners ithat are seemingly there mainly to give their owners a day out. While James Owen is very much one of the trainers of the moment, with a number of decent winners on the Flat and over jumps since taking out a licence three seasons ago, this syndicate-owned runner seems to fall squarely into that category. Well beaten in the Lingfield Trial and the slimmest hope of any on that form. Last of six in what looked a poor renewal of that race last time and while a repeat of his winning form in a maiden in April should be enough to finish in front of Al Wasl Storm – who was a length-and-a-quarter away in second – the other 18 runners will be more of a problem. Ruling Court Charlie Appleby/William Buick, stall seven A Classic winner already in the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket last month and the form of that race received a significant boost when City Of Gold, the runner-up, ran away with the Irish equivalent a couple of weeks ago. That is more than enough to send him to Epsom at the top of the ratings – Timeform has him 4lb clear – but the obvious question is whether his stamina will stretch to another half-mile. The recent record of Guineas winners in the Derby is distinctly mixed with the past three – Dawn Approach, Saxon Warrior and Kameko – all beaten after setting off as favourite. If he stays, he will probably win. If he does not, he certainly won't. Sea Scout Simon & Ed Crisford/Harry Davies, stall 18 The only runner in the field with a 'C' – for previous course winner – against his name, thanks to a narrow success in the Blue Riband Trial over 10 furlongs in April and this is a track that can take some getting used to, running downhill at speed. That is pretty much the only tick in a positive box and the same was true of many previous winners of the same race (in recent years, it has guaranteed a place in the Derby lineup so there is often no reason not to run). The last Blue Riband winner to follow up was Blue Peter in 1939. Stanhope Gardens Ralph Beckett/Hector Crouch, stall two There has been plenty of attention on the trainer's prime contender, Pride Of Arras, but less of a focus on his second string, who has had an unconventional preparation but has some interesting form. The most obvious is a close second behind Delacroix in the Autumn Stakes at Newmarket last October and it is notable that Beckett has made every effort to get him to the post, even persuading Salisbury to stage a race at an evening meeting last month that would give him much-needed prep for the Classic. Stanhope Gardens duly made short work of two opponents and there is little doubt his trainer sees him as a serious contender. Well adrift of his stable companion in the betting and the ratings, but probably close to the top of many punters' lists for each-way purposes. Tennessee Stud Joseph O'Brien/Dylan Browne McMonagle, stall 12 A Group One winner as a two-year-old in the Critérium de Saint-Cloud, a race that has been won by plenty of top-class colts on the way to a glittering three-year-old career. So far so good in terms of his record at the highest level – Ruling Court, the 2,000 Guineas winner, is the only other in the field with a previous Group One success. On the downside, last season's Critérium – when Green Storm was second – had three runners and was probably the weakest in the race's history. Returned to action in Leopardstown's Derby trial, where he finished around six-and-a-half lengths behind Delacroix. He was noticeably weak in the market beforehand – the implication being that he should improve significantly for the run – but seven lengths is probably asking too much. The Lion In Winter Aidan O'Brien/Colin Keane, stall 19 The undoubted enigma of the race, not least as his trainer's Derby winners in the past two seasons have been bouncing back from disappointing runs on seasonal debuts. Unlike Auguste Rodin in 2023 and City Of Troy last year, however, The Lion In Winter has been passed over by Ryan Moore after surrendering his unbeaten record with a tame sixth behind Pride Of Arras in the Dante at York. He is bred to appreciate the step up in trip and handed Ruling Court the only defeat of his career, in the Acomb Stakes at York last August, but will struggle to get home if he again fails to settle. A draw in the widest stall may not help in that regard. Respected if only because he has the initials 'A.P.O'B' on his saddlecloth, but the Moore Factor – or rather, the lack-of-Moore Factor – has to be a concern. Tornado Alert Saeed bin Suroor/Oisin Murphy, stall 11 The racing landscape has changed significantly since Saeed bin Suroor saddled Lammtarra to win the Derby in 1995, in the earliest years of the Godolphin operation. The trainer's fortunes within the organisation have since waxed and waned, to the point where the man who won four UK trainers' championships between 1996 and 2004 is now a furlong behind Charlie Appleby, his near-neighbour in Newmarket, in the pecking order. Appleby has won two Derbys since Bin Suroor saddled his most recent runner in 2017 and having landed the Classic at the first attempt three decades ago his 24 runners since have all been beaten. Ran a fine race to finish fourth in the 2,000 Guineas and has Oisin Murphy, the reigning champion jockey, to do the steering. He took a strong hold to lead the field for the first six furlongs at Newmarket and looks more likely to appreciate a drop in trip than a step up to a mile-and-a-half. Tuscan Hills Raphael Freire/David Egan, stall six Kia Joorabchian has ploughed millions into his Amo Racing operation in recent seasons and been rewarded with a couple of placings for big outsiders in the Derby, but his only representative in this year's Classic may struggle. He is, at least, stabled in the right place for a potential winner, as his young handler has taken over at Sir Michael Stoute's Freemason Lodge stable in Newmarket after the legendary trainer's retirement at the end of last year. His form is well short of what is likely to be required as he seemed to struggle to get even the 10-furlong trip at York when finishing seventh in the Dante.
Miami Herald
8 hours ago
- Miami Herald
Who is the favorite in a loaded Belmont Stakes? See the full field with odds.
For the second straight year, the Belmont Stakes field will feature the winners of both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes. Post positions were drawn Monday evening for the 2025 Belmont Stakes, which will feature an eight-horse field Saturday night at Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, New York. Journalism — the Kentucky Derby post-time favorite who finished second in that race, before then winning the Preakness Stakes — is the 8-5 morning-line favorite for Saturday's 157th running of the Grade 1, $2 million Belmont Stakes. Journalism will begin Saturday's Belmont from post position No. 7 near the outside of the field. Sovereignty, last month's Kentucky Derby winner, is the second choice on the Belmont Stakes morning line at 2-1 odds. Sovereignty will begin the Belmont from post position No. 2 near the inside rail. For the second straight year, the Belmont Stakes will be run at a different track and at a different distance than normal. Belmont Park in Elmont, New York, is the usual home for the race, but that venue remains out of action due to ongoing renovations. As such, Saratoga is hosting the Belmont Stakes for a second straight year. The Belmont Stakes is normally run at a traditional distance of 1 1/2 miles at Belmont Park. But, also for the second straight year, the Belmont Stakes will be contested at a shortened distance of 1 1/4 miles at Saratoga. Here's a full look at the 2025 Belmont Stakes field. Post time for the race is 7:04 p.m. EDT on Saturday. 2025 Belmont Stakes post position draw The following eight horses were assigned a starting gate for Saturday's Belmont Stakes during the post position draw on Monday evening. Horses are listed with their morning-line odds, trainers, jockeys and owners, in that order. ▪ 1: Hill Road, (10-1), Chad Brown, Irad Ortiz Jr., Amo Racing USA. ▪ 2: Sovereignty, (2-1), Bill Mott, Junior Alvarado, Godolphin. ▪ 3: Rodriguez, (6-1), Bob Baffert, Mike Smith, SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Stonestreet Stables, Dianne Bashor, Determined Stables, Robert E. Masterson, Tom J. Ryan, Waves Edge Capital and Catherine Donovan. ▪ 4: Uncaged, (30-1), Todd Pletcher, Luis Saez, WinStar Farm and Repole Stable. ▪ 5: Crudo, (15-1), Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez, Bobby Flay and James Ventura. ▪ 6: Baeza, (4-1), John Shirreffs, Flavien Prat, C R K Stable and Grandview Equine. ▪ 7: Journalism, (8-5), Michael McCarthy, Umberto Rispoli, Bridlewood Farm, Don Alberto Stable, Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, Elayne Stables 5, Robert V. LaPenta, Mrs. John Magnier-Lessee, Derrick Smith-Lessee and Michael B. Tabor-Lessee. ▪ 8: Heart of Honor (GB), (30-1), Jamie Osborne, Saffie Osborne, Jim and Claire Limited. Half of the horses in the Belmont Stakes field have already run in a Triple Crown race this year. Sovereignty won the Kentucky Derby, and his connections controversially opted to skip the Preakness Stakes. Journalism ran second in the Kentucky Derby and then won the Preakness Stakes. Baeza, who was initially an also-eligible horse for the Derby, drew into the field and charged late to finish third in the Run for the Roses. Heart of Honor (Great Britain) finished fifth in the Preakness, which was his first race in the United States. Journalism will be the only horse this year to run in all three Triple Crown events. Crudo, Hill Road, Rodriguez and Uncaged will all be making their first and only Triple Crown starts Saturday. What are the key storylines for the 2025 Belmont Stakes? ▪ Sovereignty is aiming to become the first Kentucky Derby winner to also win the Belmont Stakes since Justify won the Triple Crown in 2018. That's also the last time the Preakness Stakes winner went on to also triumph in the Belmont Stakes. The last time a horse won both the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont Stakes, but not the Preakness Stakes, was Thunder Gulch in 1995. That's what Sovereignty would accomplish with a win Saturday. ▪ The last time a horse won both the Preakness Stakes and the Belmont Stakes, but not the Kentucky Derby, was Afleet Alex in 2005. That's what Journalism would accomplish with a win Saturday. ▪ For the first time since 2013, the top three finishers in the Kentucky Derby will all be running in the Belmont Stakes. On that occasion, Derby winner Orb ran third in the Belmont, Derby runner up Golden Soul finished ninth and Derby third-place runner Revolutionary was fifth in the Belmont. ▪ Trainer Todd Pletcher — a four-time winner of the Belmont Stakes — has a quarter of this year's Belmont runners with Crudo and Uncaged. Crudo, who is part-owned by celebrity chef Bobby Flay, has two wins in three career starts, including in a maiden special weight race in April at Keeneland. Crudo — who is a son of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify — will begin the Belmont from post position No. 5. Uncaged — last seen finishing sixth in the Grade 3 Peter Pan Stakes in May — is part-owned by Mike Repole, a prominent businessman who is also a major booster for the St. John's men's basketball team that's coached by Rick Pitino. Luis Saez, who won last year's Belmont Stakes aboard Dornoch and the 2021 Belmont Stakes with Essential Quality, will be the jockey for Uncaged. Uncaged will begin the Belmont from post position No. 4, right next to Pletcher's other runner, Crudo. Pletcher's victories in the Belmont have come with Rags to Riches (2007), Palace Malice (2013), Tapwrit (2017) and Mo Donegal (2022). ▪ Bob Baffert's Rodriguez was supposed to run in the Kentucky Derby, but a foot injury kept him out of both the Derby and the Preakness. Earlier this year, Rodriguez won the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. The defection of Rodriguez from the Derby is what allowed Baeza to compete in that race. Rodriguez drew post position No. 3. Baffert has already won the Belmont Stakes three times with Point Given (2001) and Triple Crown winners American Pharoah (2015) and Justify (2018). Baeza has post position No. 6 for Saturday's race. ▪ Hill Road offers intrigue on a number of fronts entering the Belmont. He's coming off a victory in the Grade 3 Peter Pan Stakes last month, which is a traditional prep race for the Belmont. Past winners of the Peter Pan Stakes who went on to win the Belmont Stakes are Counterpoint (1951), High Gun (1954), Gallant Man (1957), Cavan (1958), Coastal (1979), Danzig Connection (1986), A.P. Indy (1992), Tonalist (2014) and, most recently, Arcangelo (2023). Known as a closer, Hill Road will begin his third start for trainer Chad Brown from post position No. 1 along the inside rail. ▪ Heart of Honor, a 30-1 shot, drew the furthest outside gate with post position No. 8. There's a distinct family connection with this horse: Trainer Jamie Osborne's daughter, Saffie, is the jockey. Saffie is looking to become the second female jockey to win the Belmont Stakes (Julie Krone with Colonial Affair in 1993). The most recent British horse to win the Belmont Stakes was Celtic Ash in 1960.
Miami Herald
8 hours ago
- Miami Herald
After skipping the Preakness, what is expected from Sovereignty in the Belmont?
After several weeks of debate, the 2025 Kentucky Derby winner is back in horse racing's spotlight. Sovereignty, whose connections opted to not run him in the Preakness Stakes, is back for the final race of the 2025 Triple Crown season. The Bill Mott trainee is one of eight horses that will run in Saturday night's Grade 1, $2 million Belmont Stakes at Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, New York. Much was made of the decision from Mott and Godolphin — Sovereignty's breeder and owner — to have the horse skip the Preakness, which is the second leg of horse racing's Triple Crown. The choice sparked renewed discussion about the scheduling of horse racing's three Triple Crown events and the modern viability of having three classics run in a five-week period. But, at least temporarily, all that chatter can die down. The focus for the next few days will be on Sovereignty's return in the Belmont Stakes, which features a loaded field. Journalism (the Kentucky Derby runner-up and Preakness Stakes winner), Baeza (third in the Derby) and Rodriguez (a highly touted Bob Baffert trainee) are expected to pose stiff competition for Sovereignty in the Belmont, which will again be contested at a shortened distance of 1 1/4 miles at Saratoga. 'He's improved, as many of these horses have,' Mott said following Monday evening's post position draw. 'This entire group, if you look at their form and the way they've developed over the course of this year, I think they've made steady progress. It should be an interesting race on Saturday.' Sovereignty, who will begin the Belmont Stakes from post position No. 2 near the inside rail, is the second choice in the morning line odds at 2-1. Journalism is the morning line favorite for the 157th running of the Belmont at 8-5 odds. 'I thought being a small field, eight horses, I was going to be happy with whatever post position we got,' said Mott, the 71-year-old trainer who won the 2010 Belmont Stakes with Drosselmeyer. 'I don't think it's a big issue for him.' Jockey Junior Alvarado, who has been aboard Sovereignty for all three of his wins, once again has the mount for Saturday's Belmont. How do Sovereignty's connections expect him to fare in his first outing since defeating Journalism by 1 1/2 lengths over a sloppy and sealed Churchill Downs track to win the Kentucky Derby on May 3? 'Bill has been very happy with him since he's got up to Saratoga,' Michael Banahan, Godolphin's USA director of bloodstock, said Tuesday afternoon. 'He came out of the Derby in good shape, and he had a couple of breezes that Bill has put into him up there. He seems like he's responded well… So by all accounts, Bill and his team up in Saratoga have been particularly pleased with how well he's been doing.' Sovereignty posted a career-best 104 Beyer Speed Figure in that Derby triumph, which delivered Godolphin its first victory in the Run for the Roses. Godolphin, a global racing outfit, has tasted victory in the Belmont Stakes before. Essential Quality — who, like Sovereignty, is a Kentucky homebred for Godolphin — won the 2021 Belmont after finishing third in that year's Kentucky Derby. This year's shortened Belmont distance of 1 1/4 miles at Saratoga figures to work well for Sovereignty, whose three career wins have come at distances of 1 1/16 miles (twice) and 1 1/4 miles in the Derby. 'I would anticipate that'll be fine for him,' Banahan said of the Belmont distance for Sovereignty, who began his racing career with a fourth-place effort in a maiden special weight race at Saratoga last August. 'I suppose if it was a regular Belmont at Belmont Park, that'd be another question to answer going that far (1 1/2 miles). But it certainly looks like a mile and a quarter was well in his wheelhouse in the Derby and (we) anticipate that it shouldn't be any issue at Saratoga as well.' Sovereignty looking to win both the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes History is on the line for Sovereignty on Saturday at Saratoga. Sovereignty is aiming to become the first Kentucky Derby winner to also win the Belmont Stakes since Justify's Triple Crown campaign in 2018. Because Sovereignty didn't compete in the Preakness Stakes, there's also another piece of horse racing history available to him. He's looking to become the first horse to win the Derby and the Belmont, but not the Preakness, since Thunder Gulch in 1995. Only 11 horses in history have managed to win both the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes, but not the Preakness Stakes, in the same year. They are Zev (1923), Twenty Grand (1931), Johnstown (1939), Shut Out (1942), Middleground (1950), Needles (1956), Chateaugay (1963), Riva Ridge (1972), Bold Forbes (1976), Swale (1984) and Thunder Gulch (1995). Of course, one of the reasons Sovereignty is in this position is because of the decision to not race in the Preakness Stakes. Since Justify won the Triple Crown in 2018, four of the seven horses that won the Kentucky Derby have skipped the Preakness. That list includes Country House (who won the 2019 Derby following a postrace disqualification), Mandaloun (the 2021 Derby winner after first-place Medina Spirit failed a postrace drug test), Rich Strike (2022) and Sovereignty. Mott was also Country House's trainer. On Tuesday, the Herald-Leader asked Banahan what his thoughts were on the Triple Crown scheduling debate that was reignited by the choice to not run Sovereignty in the Preakness. 'I think that'll be up to the racetracks to really come to a decision on what they think is going to be the best for those three races in the Triple Crown, and going forward, if and how they need to evolve,' Banahan said. 'There have been probably plenty of debates about it, but we were pretty confident that it was the right thing to do for our horse and with the spacing of his races so far, he's responded very well with that.' After running second in the Florida Derby on March 29, Sovereignty had a five-week break before running in and winning the Kentucky Derby. That's the same gap Sovereignty will have between the Derby and Saturday's Belmont. 'We looked at the opportunities that were going to present themselves for him after the Derby and we felt that the best thing for him, and to have a career through the whole season and maybe into next year as well, was spacing his races a little bit,' Banahan added. 'Bill Mott, who's trained horses for us for a long time, is very judicious about where he wants to place his horses and we put a lot of faith in the recommendations that he would give us as well.'
