Oil prices inch down on expected minimal sanctions impact
Brent crude futures dropped 20 cents, or 0.3%, to $69.08 a barrel by 1100 GMT after settling 0.35% down on Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude eased by 6 cents, or 0.1%, to $67.28 after a 0.3% decline in the previous session.
The European Union on Friday approved the 18th package of sanctions against Russia over the war in Ukraine, which also targeted India's Nayara Energy, an exporter of oil products refined from Russian crude.
"The latest round of EU sanctions aren't necessarily going to change the oil balance. That's why the market is not reacting much," said Harry Tchiliguirian at Onyx Capital Group. "Russians have been very good at circumventing these kinds of sanctions."
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Friday that Russia had built up a certain immunity to Western sanctions.
The EU sanctions followed U.S. President Donald Trump's threats last week to impose sanctions on buyers of Russian exports unless Russia agrees to a peace deal within 50 days.
ING analysts said the part of the package likely to have an impact is the EU import ban on refined oil products processed from Russian oil in third countries, though it said it could prove difficult to monitor and enforce.
Iran, another sanctioned oil producer, is due to hold nuclear talks with Britain, France and Germany in Istanbul on Friday, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said on Monday. That follows warnings by the three European countries that a failure to resume negotiations would lead to international sanctions being reimposed on Iran.
In the U.S., the number of operating oil rigs fell by two to 422 last week, the lowest total since September 2021, Baker Hughes said on Friday.
U.S. tariffs on European Union imports are set to kick in on August 1, though U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Sunday that he was confident the United States could secure a trade deal with the bloc.
"Tariff concerns will continue to weigh in the lead up to the August 1 deadline, while some support may come from oil inventory data if it shows tight supply," said IG market analyst Tony Sycamore.
"It feels very much like a $64-$70 range in play for the week ahead."
Brent crude futures have traded between a low of $66.34 a barrel and a high of $71.53 after a ceasefire deal on June 24 halted the 12-day Israel-Iran war. - Reuters
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
The Star
an hour ago
- The Star
How the US became the apex predator on trade
For a region often hailed as the future of the global economy, it's been an unedifying experience. One by one, Asian leaders swallowed trade accords with the United States that are slightly better than envisaged months ago, but more punitive than when they bet on access to the American market as a development strategy decades ago. The glory days of supply chains must seem like a prehistoric time to the countries that lined up to concede to White House demands for levies. Certainly a throw-back to an earlier, less prosperous, age: The overall level of US tariffs is now the highest since 1930s, according to Bloomberg Economics. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba was once adamant he would never accept duties, especially on autos, but concluded he could live with a 15% penalty. The European Union's top official, Ursula von der Leyen, said last Sunday the 15% rate the bloc settled on with President Donald Trump was the best she could manage. Key economies yet to strike a deal, such as South Korea and India, risk more adverse terms than those that already went along to get along. Trump is demanding a demonstration of obeisance and, in important ways, is receiving it. At the top of the commercial food chain is the United States, still the premier economy by a healthy margin. Tariffs may not revive the working-class communities that he claims to champion, but Trump can put on an emotionally satisfying show. Fingers crossed And the nations that have yielded get Trump off their back – and cross their fingers that they will fare better under the next president. In this sense, it's useful to think in terms of apex predators, those at the pinnacle of the natural food chain that are able to devour smaller players, according to Dmitry Grozoubinski, a former Australian trade negotiator. 'They are to a large extent paying protection money,' he told me. Tariffs of around 20% seem to be the benchmark for South-East Asia, based on deals announced with the Philippines, Indonesia and Vietnam. In the case of the latter two, they negotiated the US down from higher levels than foreshadowed in April. They will still hurt. Vietnam, which has become an export dynamo, may see its shipments to America drop by one third. Efforts to squeeze China are a feature of the pacts; Washington wants to curb the ability of Chinese firms to re-route products through third countries. The Philippines appeared to suffer a humiliation; the levy on goods from the archipelago was just a hair lower than what was announced by Trump a few weeks ago. Many details are still to be resolved and countries haven't given up on getting better terms. The common element, aside from just getting what passes as a deal done, is allowing Trump some of the theatre he craves. Praise the agreements and the White House's occupant. Counting on ties And, perhaps, when the attention is elsewhere, you can get a slightly better deal. Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr made it clear he hasn't given up. Ahead of his recent meeting with Trump at the White House, his team put great store in the close historical ties between the two nations; the Philippines was once a US colony and it regularly brushes up against Chinese ships in the South China Sea. On the face of it, Manila got little from the arrangement. Marcos' best shot is to work with negotiators while Trump has moved on. Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth hinted at this by saying there may be a military component to the accord. 'The wolf is now at other doors,' said Grozoubinski, author of the book Why Politicians Lie About Trade. 'The indignity hurts less than the fight would. In return, counterparts get a semblance of certainty about the cost of entry to the United States, a vital component in the competition for foreign direct investment,' Grozoubinski added. The escape can be a form of victory. In the case of Vietnam, for example, the country is still fairly competitive with a 20% tariff. It stings, but probably isn't enough to warrant a producer packing up and going somewhere else. It may all be worth it to keep access to US customers. The administration foreshadowed this calculous before 'Liberation Day'. Stephen Miran, chair of Trump's Council of Economic Advisers, told Bloomberg Television in March that nations have little choice other than to sell to the United States. They will pay up to retain that privilege. Seoul, you are next. South Korean officials have dangled a shipbuilding partnership as part of a potential compact. Talks with China, underway in Sweden, will be something else. Hopefully, the world economy won't be too damaged. The question Chinese President Xi Jinping will ask is whether the fight is worth it and how much resistance his own economy can stand. — Bloomberg Daniel Moss is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Asian economies. The views expressed here are the writer's own.
New Straits Times
5 hours ago
- New Straits Times
Oil shock looms as Trump cuts Russia deadline to 10 days
UNITED States President Donald Trump unexpectedly shortened his deadline for hitting Russia with the most severe sanctions on its oil exports to date. While the market has called the president's bluff thus far, the sheer scale of the threat may force investors to start pricing in this meaningful tail risk. Speaking alongside British Prime Minister Keir Starmer in Scotland on Monday, Trump said he was giving Moscow only 10 to 12 days to reach a deal to end the war in Ukraine before he would impose so-called secondary sanctions on its oil exports, cutting short his previous 50-day timeframe set on July 14. The sanctions would slap 100 per cent tariffs on buyers of Russian oil, with the biggest customers being India and China. This move has the potential to disrupt global oil supplies, given that Russia exported 4.68 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil in June, around 4.5 per cent of global demand, as well as 2.5 million bpd of refined products, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Going through with the secondary tariffs on Russia risks causing a severe spike in oil prices that could put upward pressure on US inflation, an outcome that could stay Trump's hand, even if he is "disappointed" in Russian President Vladimir Putin. And there have been several headline-grabbing moments in recent months where the Republican president has rowed back on his threats, including the "reciprocal tariffs" originally announced on April 2 that he quickly toned down in the face of market pressure. But Trump has also made good on some of his threats, most notably the bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities on June 22. Unlike his initial announcement on secondary tariffs, which investors appeared to shrug off, oil prices rose by nearly three per cent on Monday. So his erratic Russia policy may make some investors wary of writing off the risk altogether. The next question is, would secondary tariffs — a relatively untested, blunt financial weapon — be effective? The answer is probably yes. One of Russia's key customers, India — the largest importer of seaborne Russian crude in June at 1.5 million bpd — is currently engaged in tense trade talks with the US. New Delhi is, therefore, unlikely to want to exacerbate trade tensions with Washington and thus may be apt to ditch Moscow in favour of new, though undoubtedly more expensive, energy sources. On the other hand, China, which imported around two million bpd of Russian oil in June via pipeline and by sea, is less likely to change its buying patterns since it already faces several layers of US tariffs and considers its ties with Moscow to be strategic. But the Kremlin's finances would still be squeezed regardless if India were to cease purchasing Russian oil, as China would likely be able to buy it even more cheaply. The scale of the potential new sanctions' impact on the global oil market is hard to gauge, given current supply and demand dynamics. World oil demand is expected to grow by 700,000 bpd this year, its lowest rate since 2009, while supplies are forecast to rise sharply by 2.1 million bpd to 105.1 million bpd, according to the IEA. The growth in supply has been driven in recent months mostly by output increases by the Saudi Arabia-led oil producing group collectively known as Opec+. The group in April started unwinding 2.2 million bpd of production cuts and upped the United Arab Emirates' (UAE) production quota by 300,000 bpd. The Opec+ production increases have led, naturally, to a decline in the group's spare production capacity, but Saudi Arabia still held, as of June, 2.3 million bpd of production it can bring on stream within 90 days, while the UAE and Kuwait held 900,000 bpd and 600,000 bpd of spare capacity, respectively. This means that the three Gulf producers could ramp up output relatively quickly in the event of a sudden supply disruption. But that knowledge is unlikely to be enough to calm markets should Trump impose his secondary sanctions, partly because of the uncertainty surrounding possible retaliatory measures by Moscow. Trump's latest threat could be an empty one, but it has shortened the fuse of a timebomb that oil markets might struggle to ignore.
New Straits Times
5 hours ago
- New Straits Times
India committed to 'fair, balanced' trade with US
NEW DELHI: India on Wednesday said it was committed to negotiating a "fair, balanced" trade deal with Washington, after US President Donald Trump said Indian goods would face steep tariffs and New Delhi would be penalised for purchases of Russian weapons and energy. Months of trade negotiations between India and the United States have failed to seal a deal, with sticking points including Trump's sweeping demands and New Delhi's reluctance to fully open its agricultural and dairy sectors. Two days before Trump's August 1 tariffs deadline, the US president announced that imports from India would be hit with a 25 per cent tariff. The Indian government said it had "taken note" of Trump's announcement and was "studying its implications". "India and the US have been engaged in negotiations on concluding a fair, balanced and mutually beneficial bilateral trade agreement over the last few months. We remain committed to that objective," it said in a statement, also noting that it was determined to protect the welfare of Indian farmers and entrepreneurs. "The Government will take all steps necessary to secure our national interest, as has been the case with other trade agreements including the latest Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement with the UK." - AFP
