B vs. AEM: Which Gold Mining Stock Should You Bet on Now?
Barrick is well-placed to benefit from the progress in key growth projects that should significantly contribute to its production. Its major gold and copper growth projects, including Goldrush, the Pueblo Viejo plant expansion and mine life extension, Fourmile, Lumwana Super Pit and Reko Diq, are being executed. These projects are advancing on schedule and within budget, laying the groundwork for the next generation of profitable production. The Goldrush mine is ramping up to the targeted 400,000 ounces of production per annum by 2028. Bordering Goldrush is the 100% Barrick-owned Fourmile, which is yielding grades double those of Goldrush and is anticipated to become another Tier One mine. The project has progressed to a prefeasibility study on the back of a successful drilling program. The Reko Diq copper-gold project in Pakistan is designed to produce 460,000 tons of copper and 520,000 ounces of gold annually in its second development phase. The first production is expected by the end of 2028.In October 2024, Barrick announced the commencement of the development of a Super Pit at its Lumwana copper mine in Zambia. The Super Pit Expansion entails doubling the present process circuit's throughput and substantially boosting mining volumes. Upon completion, the $2 billion project has the potential to transform Lumwana into a long-term, high-yielding, top-25 copper producer and Tier One copper mine. The expansion is expected to deliver 240,000 tons of copper production annually over the life of the mine.Barrick has a solid liquidity position and generates healthy cash flows, positioning it well to take advantage of attractive development, exploration and acquisition opportunities, drive shareholder value and reduce debt. At the end of first-quarter 2025, Barrick's cash and cash equivalents were around $4.1 billion. It generated strong operating cash flows of roughly $1.2 billion in the quarter, up 59% year over year. Free cash flow surged to around $375 million in the first quarter from $32 million in the prior-year quarter. Barrick returned $1.2 billion to its shareholders in 2024 through dividends and repurchases. Barrick's board, in February 2025, authorized a new program for the repurchase of up to $1 billion of its outstanding common shares. It repurchased shares worth $143 million under this program during the first quarter. Barrick offers a dividend yield of 1.9% at the current stock price. Its payout ratio is 28% (a ratio below 60% is a good indicator that the dividend will be sustainable), with a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of roughly 5.1%.Barrick, however, is challenged by higher costs, which may eat into its margins. Its cash costs per ounce of gold and all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) — the most important cost metric of miners — increased around 16% and 20% year over year, respectively, in the first quarter. AISC increased due to higher total cash costs per ounce and higher minesite sustaining capital expenditures. For 2025, the company projects total cash costs per ounce of $1,050-$1,130 and AISC in the range of $1,460-$1,560 per ounce. These projections suggest a year-over-year increase at the midpoint of the respective ranges. Increased mine-site sustaining capital spending and higher labor costs may lead to higher costs.
Agnico Eagle is focused on executing projects that are expected to provide additional growth in production and cash flows. It is advancing its key value drivers and pipeline projects, including the Odyssey project in the Canadian Malartic Complex, Detour Lake, Hope Bay, Upper Beaver and San Nicolas. The Hope Bay Project, with proven and probable mineral reserves of 3.4 million ounces, is expected to play a significant role in generating cash flow in the coming years. The processing plant expansion at Meliadine was completed and commissioned in the second half of 2024, with mill capacity expected to increase to roughly 6,250 tons per day in 2025.The merger with Kirkland Lake Gold established Agnico Eagle as the industry's highest-quality senior gold producer. The integrated entity now has an extensive pipeline of development and exploration projects to drive sustainable growth. It also has the financial flexibility to fund a strong pipeline of growth projects.AEM has a robust liquidity position and generates substantial cash flows, which allow it to maintain a strong exploration budget, finance a strong pipeline of growth projects, pay down debt and drive shareholder value. Its operating cash flow jumped roughly 33% year over year to record $1,044 million in the first quarter.AEM generated solid first-quarter free cash flows of $594 million, up around 50% year over year, backed by the strength in gold prices and strong operational results. It remains focused on paying down debt using excess cash, with net debt reducing by $212 million sequentially to just $5 million at the end of the first quarter. Its long-term debt-to-capitalization is just around 5%, lower than Barrick's 12.3%. AEM also returned around $920 million to its shareholders through dividends and repurchases last year and $251 million in the first quarter. AEM offers a dividend yield of 1.3% at the current stock price. It has a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of 10.3%. AEM has a payout ratio of 32%.Despite these positives, Agnico Eagle is still exposed to higher production costs. In the first quarter, its total cash costs per ounce of gold were up modestly from the previous year to $903. While AISC declined in the quarter due to the deferral of certain sustaining capital expenditures, AEM projects the same to increase in the remainder of 2025. AEM forecasts total cash costs per ounce in the range of $915 to $965 and AISC per ounce between $1,250 and $1,300 for 2025, suggesting a year-over-year increase at the midpoint of the respective ranges. While AEM is taking actions to control costs, the inflationary pressure is likely to continue over the near term, weighing on its profit margins and overall financial performance.
Year to date, Barrick stock has gained 36.3%, while AEM stock has rallied 56.8% compared with the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's increase of 55.4%.
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Barrick is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 10.73, lower than its five-year median. This represents a roughly 23.8% discount when stacked up with the industry average of 14.08X.
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Agnico Eagle is trading at a premium to Barrick. The AEM stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 20.27, above the industry.
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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for B's 2025 sales and EPS implies a year-over-year rise of 13.7% and 43.7%, respectively. The EPS estimates for 2025 have been trending higher over the past 60 days.
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The consensus estimate for AEM's 2025 sales and EPS implies year-over-year growth of 23.6% and 43%, respectively. The EPS estimates for 2025 have been trending northward over the past 60 days.
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(Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)
Both B and AEM currently have a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), so picking one stock is not easy. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.Both Barrick and Agnico Eagle are well-positioned to capitalize on the current gold price environment. Both have a strong pipeline of development projects, solid financial health and strong earnings growth prospects, and are seeing favorable estimate revisions. On the flip side, both are buffeted by higher production costs. AEM's higher dividend growth rate suggests that it may offer better investment prospects in the current market environment. AEM's lower leverage also indicates lesser financial risks. Investors seeking exposure to the gold space might consider Agnico Eagle as the more favorable option at this time.
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