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Lithium stock rally as CATL mine halt raises prospects of tighter supply
In premarket trading, Albemarle Corp jumped nearly 9 per cent, while Chile's Sociedad Quimica y Minera rose 6.5 per cent and Lithium Americas gained nearly 9 per cent.
Smaller companies, Standard Lithium, Piedmont Lithium and Sigma Lithium advanced between 5.6 per cent and 13.8 per cent. Chinese and Australian miners also rallied.
The lithium sector has been struggling with a glut following weaker-than-anticipated growth in demand for electric vehicles.
The most active lithium carbonate futures in Guangzhou rose the 8 per cent daily limit after CATL said its mining license for the Yichun project in Jiangxi province expired on Aug. 9 and renewal was underway.
The site can produce more than 46,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent a year, roughly 3 per cent of the global supply forecast for 2025, according to data from the Australian government.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley said the outage could erode the small 60,000-tonne surplus it expects for 2025, bringing "upside risk to lithium prices in the short term" and potentially moving the market closer to balance if other disruptions follow.
Longer-term, it expects a surplus to re-emerge without further supply discipline.
Morningstar analyst Vincent Sun said the suspension was "an indication that the industry is taking proactive steps to contain further lithium price falls observed year-to-date." With lithium prices now below the marginal cost of production, the move could be perceived as a positive driver to limit supply growth and rebalance the market, he said, but added it was "still too early to confirm a price recovery trend for the rest of the year."
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