Analysis: ‘America First' meets ‘Gulf first' in Trump's visit
There's been a steady drumbeat in Gulf state-backed media ahead of US President Donald Trump's visit, with expectations ranging from cautious optimism to what can politely be called wishful thinking. The result will land somewhere in between. Trump is not going to resolve Iran's nuclear deal, recognize a Palestinian state, normalize Saudi-Israeli ties, or break ground on a Trump Tower in Damascus — all of which have been floated by pundits as possible outcomes.
Even the latest headline — that Qatar will donate, not sell, a luxurious jet to serve as Air Force One during Trump's presidency and later as his personal aircraft — isn't actually tied to this trip.
What is more likely are deals that converge 'America First' alongside Saudi, Qatari, and Emirati priorities. The US will get investment pledges and arms deals. Gulf states will get closer alignment with Washington, along with concessions on technology transfer and nuclear cooperation. There may even be progress on regional security challenges.
Gulf militaries are already Western-oriented, so adding new systems and deepening defense ties is an ongoing process. The region's push into artificial intelligence, space, and other advanced technologies is where a new arrangement has to be reached, especially on allowing chip sales to train and run the latest AI models. There are also familial investments at play: Trump companies have partnered with property developers in the region for projects in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, and tokens connected to his crypto project were used for a $2 billion investment in Binance.
But on that Qatari jet. Semafor's Shelby Talcott and Ben Smith scooped the details — including interior shots — of the Boeing 747-8. As expected, it's fit for a billionaire sheikh. Qatar donated a similar plane to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The $400 million price tag is shocking: most people aren't allowed to accept gifts from foreign governments worth more than $100.
In the context of Qatar's, and the broader Gulf's, deep pockets, it's a rounding error. Gulf sovereign wealth funds have surpassed $4 trillion in assets under management and are expected to reach $7 trillion by 2030, according to industry tracker Global SWF. That's a lot of planes.
Qatar's royals own so many jets that a 2015 incident offers some context: when the current emir's father was hospitalized in Switzerland over Christmas, his family and entourage reportedly flew in on nine private jets to visit him. Two jets departed Doha just 15 minutes apart (because plane-pooling isn't a thing.) The aircraft under consideration for Trump isn't used much, presumably because its owner has one, or several, others he prefers.
The Gulf is because its leaders won't criticize him, an expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies noted.
AI hips will be in focus during the trip: Saudi Arabia and the UAE, both buyers of US chipmaker Nvidia's most advanced semiconductors, are dangling $2 trillion worth of US investments, with discussions on advanced technology high on the agenda.
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