Tropical Storm Erin forms, may become major hurricane by weekend. Will it impact Florida?
Erin is expected to strengthen as it makes its way west across the Atlantic. Current forecasts predict it'll become a major hurricane, with sustained winds of 115 mph, within the next five days.
The National Hurricane Center issued its first advisory on the system — one of three in the Atlantic — at 11 a.m. Monday, Aug. 11.
The fifth-named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, Erin formed earlier than the historical average of Aug. 22.
No tropical storm watches or warnings have been issued for Florida or the United States, and it's too early to tell whether it will impact the U.S.
Erin is expected to strengthen into a hurricane by Aug. 13 and become a major hurricane by Aug. 16 as it moves west across the Atlantic.
Many models predict it'll curve toward the north before reaching Florida.
Highlights on what Tropical Storm Erin is doing now
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Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
Location: 280 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands; 2,305 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands
Maximum sustained winds: 45 mph
Movement: west at 20 mph
Pressure: 1,004 mb
Next advisory: 8 p.m. CVT; 5 p.m. ET
Tropical Storm Erin: What you need to know
At 11 a.m. Monday, Aug. 11, the center of Tropical Storm Erin was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 28.0 West. Erin is moving toward the west near 20 mph, and this motion is expected to continue for the next several days.
Earlier satellite wind data indicated that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph, with higher gusts. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center.
Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next several days.
Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Erin
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
➤ Track Tropical Storm Erin
Is there a hurricane coming toward Florida? Expected impacts from Tropical Storm Erin
No tropical storm watches or warnings have been issued for Florida or the United States, and it's too early to tell whether it will impact the U.S.
Erin is expected to strengthen into a hurricane by Aug. 13 and become a major hurricane by Aug. 16 as it moves west across the Atlantic.
Many models predict it'll curve toward the north before reaching Florida.
Even if it does avoid a landfall in Florida, expect a "significant increase in seas, surf and rip currents along the East coast beaches next weekend into the following week," according to AccuWeather.
How strong is Tropical Storm Erin and where is it going?
The intensity forecast in the short-term is a little tricky, the National Hurricane Center said.
"The earlier scatterometer data indicate the system has a small circulation which could be prone to rapid intensity changes, either up or down."
Wind shear could limit Erin to slow intensification in the short-term. After that, though, warm sea-surface temperatures could mean Erin becomes a major hurricane within the next 120 hours.
A major hurricane is one that is a Category 3 or higher, with at least 111 mph sustained winds.
Key messages from the National Hurricane Center: What you need to know about Tropical Storm Erin
Tropical Storm Erin formed in the eastern Atlantic Aug. 11, ahead of the historical average for the fifth-named storm of the season.
Erin is expected to strengthen as it moves quickly across the Atlantic.
Erin could become a hurricane Aug. 13 or early Aug. 14.
Current predictions call for Erin to become a major hurricane by Saturday morning, Aug. 16, with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph.
Current forecast: Where is Tropical Storm Erin and how strong could it get?
As of 11 a.m.: 45 mph
12 hours: 50 mph
24 hours: 60 mph
36 hours: 65 mph
48 hours: 70 mph
60 hours: 80 mph
72 hours: 90 mph
96 hours: 105 mph
120 hours: 115 mph
What impact could Tropical Storm Erin have and what areas could be affected?
It's still early to tell yet what impacts Tropical Storm Erin could have.
Officials warn residents should be prepared and closely monitor the storm that's expected to become a major hurricane later this week.
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This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Tropical Storm Erin forms. Expected to become major hurricane. Tracker
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