AUKUS in doubt as US starts review into whether the deal is ‘America First'

Sydney Morning Herald

a day ago

However, Colby expressed more optimism about AUKUS at his confirmation hearing earlier this year, saying he wanted to remove red tape and barriers to submarine production so that the partnership could be expedited.
News of the review comes just days before Prime Minister Anthony Albanese expects to meet Trump on the sidelines of the G7 world leaders' summit in Canada. But on Thursday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said the president's schedule for those G7 meetings was still being finalised.
Albanese's office has been contacted for comment, as was Australia's embassy in Washington, which referred questions to Canberra.
At a meeting with Defence Minister Richard Marles at the start of his month, Hegseth urged Australia to lift defence spending to 3.5 per cent of GDP – a request reiterated by Colby on social media this week.
Several AUKUS experts urged caution in interpreting the intent of the US review. They pointed to the fact the United Kingdom recently commenced a parliamentary inquiry into the pact, and said it was natural that the Trump administration would seek to ensure AUKUS aligned with its own priorities.
The review also comes just weeks after the new US ambassador to Britain, Republican donor Warren Stephens, told a London audience that AUKUS was 'vital' to global peace and security.
Under the first pillar of the pact, Australia will purchase three to five nuclear-powered submarines from the US, starting in the 2030s, and build more through a joint initiative with the US and UK. Under the second pillar, the three nations will collaborate on advanced defence technologies.
Australia is also contributing at least $US3 billion to the US defence industrial base to shore up submarine production. The deal was announced in 2021 under then prime minister Scott Morrison and then US president Joe Biden.
Sophia Gaston, UK foreign policy lead at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute in London, said the British inquiry had 'injected new dynamism and political edge into the UK's approach', which was helpful in taking AUKUS forward under Trump.
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She said it was perfectly reasonable for the new administration to conduct a review into a project as large and significant as AUKUS.
'We can never be certain of where another government's review will take them, but Britain and Australia must be confident in the rationale behind AUKUS and its alignment with America's core goals of deterrence and competition towards China,' Gaston said.
'The best thing both allies can do during this review process is to put themselves in a posture ready to deliver some quick wins, particularly on pillar two, which will demonstrate the value in America partnering with allies to amplify its strengths in both scale and innovation.'
Alessio Patalano, a professor of war and strategy in East Asia at King's College London, said Colby's views on AUKUS before he joined the current administration would likely inform how AUKUS advocates perceived this review.
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'However, these views are now being channelled into a government effort to 'audit' how AUKUS advances the US economy and security,' he said.
'As such, the review represents an opportunity to assess whether the current governance structure and priorities would benefit from greater focus.'
Supporters argue the pact is a strategic bulwark in an increasingly contested Indo-Pacific region, though critics warn that delays and shifting political dynamics could undermine its success.
But British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer last month declared the AUKUS defence pact the centrepiece of his government's national security strategy, promising the UK's largest military investment since the Cold War.
At a high-level event in Westminster, Starmer described AUKUS as a 'national endeavour' and named former national security adviser Sir Stephen Lovegrove as his special representative to lead the project.