Argentina inflation seen slowing to 28.6% by year-end
June 5 (Reuters) - Argentine analysts cut their inflation forecast for the end of the year to 28.6%, the central bank's monthly market expectations survey showed on Thursday.
The revised estimate is 3.2 percentage points lower than last month's forecast. Analysts also ticked up their 2025 economic growth outlook by 0.1 percentage point to 5.2%.
The improved inflation outlook follows a landmark $1 billion, peso-linked bond sale last week, Argentina's first major issuance in seven years, which attracted demand 1.7 times the offering size.
Annual inflation has fallen from over 270% a year ago to around 50% today, helping rebuild confidence among investors and the International Monetary Fund, which recently approved a $20 billion loan package.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
The Independent
4 hours ago
- The Independent
Can an American pope apply US-style fundraising and standards to fix troubled Vatican finances?
As a bishop in Peru, Robert Prevost was often on the lookout for used cars that he could buy cheap and fix up himself for use in parishes around his diocese. With cars that were really broken down, he'd watch YouTube videos to learn how to fix them. That kind of make-do-with-less, fix-it-yourself mentality could serve Pope Leo XIV well as he addresses one of the greatest challenges facing him as pope: The Holy See's chronic, 50 million to 60 million euro ($57-68 million) structural deficit, 1 billion euro ($1.14 billion) pension fund shortfall and declining donations that together pose something of an existential threat to the central government of the 1.4-billion strong Catholic Church. As a Chicago-born math major, canon lawyer and two-time superior of his global Augustinian religious order, the 69-year-old pope presumably can read a balance sheet and make sense of the Vatican's complicated finances, which have long been mired in scandal. Whether he can change the financial culture of the Holy See, consolidate reforms Pope Francis started and convince donors that their money is going to good use is another matter. Leo already has one thing going for him: his American-ness. U.S. donors have long been the economic life support system of the Holy See, financing everything from papal charity projects abroad to restorations of St. Peter's Basilica at home. Leo's election as the first American pope has sent a jolt of excitement through U.S. Catholics, some of whom had soured on donating to the Vatican after years of unrelenting stories of mismanagement, corruption and scandal, according to interviews with top Catholic fundraisers, philanthropists and church management experts. 'I think the election of an American is going to give greater confidence that any money given is going to be cared for by American principles, especially of stewardship and transparency,' said the Rev. Roger Landry, director of the Vatican's main missionary fundraising operation in the U.S., the Pontifical Mission Societies. 'So there will be great hope that American generosity is first going to be appreciated and then secondly is going to be well handled,' he said. 'That hasn't always been the circumstance, especially lately.' Reforms and unfinished business Pope Francis was elected in 2013 on a mandate to reform the Vatican's opaque finances and made progress during his 12-year pontificate, mostly on the regulatory front. With help from the late Australian Cardinal George Pell, Francis created an economy ministry and council made up of clergy and lay experts to supervise Vatican finances, and he wrestled the Italian-dominated bureaucracy into conforming to international accounting and budgetary standards. He authorized a landmark, if deeply problematic, corruption trial over a botched London property investment that convicted a once-powerful Italian cardinal. And he punished the Vatican's Secretariat of State that had allowed the London deal to go through by stripping it of its ability to manage its own assets. But Francis left unfinished business and his overall record, at least according to some in the donor community, is less than positive. Critics cite Pell's frustrated reform efforts and the firing of the Holy See's first-ever auditor general, who says he was ousted because he had uncovered too much financial wrongdoing. Despite imposing years of belt-tightening and hiring freezes, Francis left the Vatican in somewhat dire financial straits: The main stopgap bucket of money that funds budgetary shortfalls, known as the Peter's Pence, is nearly exhausted, officials say. The 1 billion euro ($1.14 billion) pension fund shortfall that Pell warned about a decade ago remains unaddressed, though Francis had planned reforms. And the structural deficit continues, with the Holy See logging an 83.5 million euro ($95 million) deficit in 2023, according to its latest financial report. As Francis' health worsened, there were signs that his efforts to reform the Vatican's medieval financial culture hadn't really stuck, either. The very same Secretariat of State that Francis had punished for losing tens of millions of euros in the scandalous London property deal somehow ended up heading up a new papal fundraising commission that was announced while Francis was in the hospital. According to its founding charter and statutes, the commission is led by the Secretariat of State's assessor, is composed entirely of Italian Vatican officials with no professional fundraising expertise and has no required external financial oversight. To some Vatican watchers, the commission smacks of the Italian-led Secretariat of State taking advantage of a sick pope to announce a new flow of unchecked donations into its coffers after its 600 million euro ($684 million) sovereign wealth fund was taken away and given to another office to manage as punishment for the London fiasco. 'There are no Americans on the commission. I think it would be good if there were representatives of Europe and Asia and Africa and the United States on the commission,' said Ward Fitzgerald, president of the U.S.-based Papal Foundation. It is made up of wealthy American Catholics that since 1990 has provided over $250 million (219 million euros) in grants and scholarships to the pope's global charitable initiatives. Fitzgerald, who spent his career in real estate private equity, said American donors — especially the younger generation — expect transparency and accountability from recipients of their money, and know they can find non-Vatican Catholic charities that meet those expectations. 'We would expect transparency before we would start to solve the problem,' he said. That said, Fitzgerald said he hadn't seen any significant let-up in donor willingness to fund the Papal Foundation's project-specific donations during the Francis pontificate. Indeed, U.S. donations to the Vatican overall have remained more or less consistent even as other countries' offerings declined, with U.S. bishops and individual Catholics contributing more than any other country in the two main channels to donate to papal causes. A head for numbers and background fundraising Francis moved Prevost to take over the diocese of Chiclayo, Peru, in 2014. Residents and fellow priests say he consistently rallied funds, food and other life-saving goods for the neediest — experience that suggests he knows well how to raise money when times are tight and how to spend wisely. He bolstered the local Caritas charity in Chiclayo, with parishes creating food banks that worked with local businesses to distribute donated food, said the Rev. Fidel Purisaca Vigil, a diocesan spokesperson. In 2019, Prevost inaugurated a shelter on the outskirts of Chiclayo, Villa San Vicente de Paul, to house desperate Venezuelan migrants who had fled their country's economic crisis. The migrants remember him still, not only for helping give them and their children shelter, but for bringing live chickens obtained from a donor. During the COVID-19 pandemic, Prevost launched a campaign to raise funds to build two oxygen plants to provide hard-hit residents with life-saving oxygen. In 2023, when massive rains flooded the region, he personally brought food to the flood-struck zone. Within hours of his May 8 election, videos went viral on social media of Prevost, wearing rubber boots and standing in a flooded street, pitching a solidarity campaign, 'Peru Give a Hand,' to raise money for flood victims. The Rev. Jorge Millán, who lived with Prevost and eight other priests for nearly a decade in Chiclayo, said he had a 'mathematical' mentality and knew how to get the job done. Prevost would always be on the lookout for used cars to buy for use around the diocese, Millán said, noting that the bishop often had to drive long distances to reach all of his flock or get to Lima, the capital. Prevost liked to fix them up himself, and if he didn't know what to do, 'he'd look up solutions on YouTube and very often he'd find them,' Millán told The Associated Press. Before going to Peru, Prevost served two terms as prior general, or superior, of the global Augustinian order. While the order's local provinces are financially independent, Prevost was responsible for reviewing their balance sheets and oversaw the budgeting and investment strategy of the order's headquarters in Rome, said the Rev. Franz Klein, the order's Rome-based economist who worked with Prevost. The Augustinian campus sits on prime real estate just outside St. Peter's Square and supplements revenue by renting out its picturesque terrace to media organizations (including the AP) for major Vatican events, including the conclave that elected Leo pope. But even Prevost saw the need for better fundraising, especially to help out poorer provinces. Toward the end of his 12-year term and with his support, a committee proposed creation of a foundation, Augustinians in the World. At the end of 2023, it had 994,000 euros ($1.13 million) in assets and was helping fund self-sustaining projects across Africa, including a center to rehabilitate former child soldiers in Congo. 'He has a very good interest and also a very good feeling for numbers,' Klein said. 'I have no worry about the finances of the Vatican in these years because he is very, very clever.' ___ Franklin Briceño contributed from Lima, Peru. ___ Associated Press religion coverage receives support through the AP's collaboration with The Conversation US, with funding from Lilly Endowment Inc. The AP is solely responsible for this content.
Reuters
8 hours ago
- Reuters
Fed's Musalem estimates ‘50-50' chances on tariffs triggering prolonged US inflation, FT reports
June 6 (Reuters) - St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musalem has put the likelihood of Donald Trump's trade war causing a prolonged surge in inflation at "50-50," warning that U.S. policymakers would face uncertainty "right through the summer," the Financial Times reported on Friday. Musalem told the newspaper that while U.S. President Trump's tariffs could boost inflation for "a quarter or two," there was "an equally likely scenario where the impact of tariffs on prices could last longer." Trump's tariff hikes and a $2.4 trillion budget bill have shaken markets, prompting a wait-and-see stance from the Fed after last year's rate cuts. Musalem said he believes officials could benefit from a favorable scenario where uncertainty over trade and fiscal policy "goes away in July," which would put the Fed back on track to cut interest rates in September, according to the FT. He also highlighted, however, the possibility of a scenario "where inflation begins to rise materially and we will not know whether that is a temporary, one-off increase in the price level or whether it has more persistence," the report said. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady at its mid-June meeting, when it will release updated economic projections.
BBC News
10 hours ago
- BBC News
Will Musk's explosive row with Trump help or harm his businesses?
When Elon Musk recently announced that he was stepping back from politics, investors hoped that would mean he would step up his involvement in the many tech firms he explosive row with President Donald Trump - and the very public airing of his dirty White House laundry - suggests Musk's changing priorities might not quite be the salve they had been hoping of Musk retreating somewhat from the public eye and focusing on boosting the fortunes of Tesla and his other enterprises, he now finds himself being threatened with a boycott from one of his main customers - Trump's federal government. Tesla shares were sent into freefall on Thursday - falling 14% - as he sounded off about President Donald Trump on social rebounded a little on Friday following some indications tempers were so, for the investors and analysts who, for months, had made clear they wanted Musk off his phone and back at work, the situation is far from ideal. 'They're way behind' Some though argue the problems for Musk's businesses run much deeper than this spat - and the controversial role in the Trump administration it has brought a spectacular end veteran tech journalist Kara Swisher, that is especially so for Tesla."Tesla's finished," she told the BBC on the sidelines of the San Francisco Media Summit early this week. "It was a great car company. They could compete in the autonomous taxi space but they're way behind." Tesla has long attempted to play catch-up against rival Waymo, owned by Google-parent Alphabet, whose driverless taxis have traversed the streets of San Francisco for years - and now operate in several more month, Musk is supposed to be overseeing Tesla's launch of a batch of autonomous robo-taxis in Austin, posted to X last week that the electric vehicle maker had been testing the Model Y with no drivers on board."I believe 90% of the future value of Tesla is going to be autonomous and robotics," Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives told the BBC this week, adding that the Austin launch would be "a watershed moment"."The first task at hand is ensuring the autonomous vision gets off to a phenomenal start," Ives is Elon Musk?How the Trump-Musk feud eruptedBut with Musk's attention divided, the project's odds of success would appear to have there's something else to factor in too: Musk's own talk in Silicon Valley lately centres less on whether Musk can turn things around and more on whether he even cares."He's a really powerful person when he's focused on something," said Ross Gerber, President and CEO of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management."Before, it was about proving to the world that he would make EVs - the tech that nobody else could do. It was about proving he could make rockets. He had a lot to prove."A longtime Tesla investor, Gerber has soured on the stock, and has been pairing back his holdings since Musk's foray into right-wing politics. He called Thursday an "extremely painful day.""It's the dumbest thing you could possibly do to think that you have more power than the president of the United States," Gerber said, referring to Musk's social media tirade against BBC reached out to X, Tesla, and SpaceX seeking comment from Mr Musk but did not receive a response. The Tesla takedown A particular problem for Musk is that, before he seemingly created an enemy in Donald Trump, he already had one in the grassroots social media campaign against his dubbed #TeslaTakedown, have played out across the country every weekend since Trump took April, Tesla reported a 20% drop in car sales for the first three months of the year. Profits plunged more than 70%, and the share price went down with it."He should not be deciding the fate of our democracy by disassembling our government piece by piece. It's not right," protestor Linda Koistinen told me at a demonstration outside a Berkeley, California Tesla dealership in said she wanted to make a "visible stand" against Musk personally."Ultimately it's not about the tech or the Tesla corporation," said Joan Donovan, a prominent disinformation researcher who co-organized the #TeslaTakedown protests on social media."It's about the way in which the stock of Tesla has been able to be weaponized against the people and it has put Musk in such a position to have an incredible amount of power with no transparency," Donovan aspect of Musk's empire that has raised the ire of his detractors is X, the social media platform once known as Twitter."He bought Twitter so that he had clout and would be able to - at the drop of a hat - reach hundreds of millions of people," Donovan said. The personal brand There is another possibility here Musk's high-profile falling out with Trump help rehabilitate him in the eyes of people who turned against him because of his previous closeness to the president?Patrick Moorhead, chief analyst at Moor Insights & Strategy, thinks it could."We're a very forgiving country," Moorhead says in a telephone interview."These things take time," he acknowledges, but "it's not unprecedented".Swisher likened Musk's personal brand to that of Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates more than two decades said Gates was once regarded as "the Darth Vader of Silicon Valley" because of his "arrogant and rude" despite his flaws, Gates has largely rehabilitated his image."He learned. He grew up. People can change," Swisher told me, even though Musk is "clearly troubled." Space exit The problem for Musk is the future for him and his companies is not just about what he does - but what Trump decides while Trump needed Musk in the past, not least to help fund his presidential race, it's not so clear he does Smith, writer of the Noahpinion Substack, said Trump's highly lucrative foray into cryptocurrencies - as unseemly as it has been - may have freed him from depending on Musk to carry out his will."My guess is that this was so he could get out from under Elon," Smith Trump's most menacing comment of the day, he suggested cutting Musk's government contracts, which have an estimated value of $38 billion.A significant chunk of that goes to Musk's rocket company SpaceX - seemingly threatening its despite the bluster, Trump's warning may be a little more hollow than it because SpaceX's Dragon spacecraft ferries people and cargo to the International Space Station where three NASA astronauts are currently demonstrates that SpaceX has so entrenched itself in the US space and national security apparatus, that Trump's threat could be difficult to carry could make a similar argument about Musk's internet satellite company, Starlink. Finding an alternative could be easier said than if there are limits on what Trump can do, the same is also true of the middle of his row with Trump, he threatened to decommission the Dragon - but it wasn't long before he was rowing to an X user's suggestion he that he "cool down" he wrote, "Good advice. Ok, we won't decommission Dragon."It's clear Musk and Trump's friendship is over. It's less certain their reliance on each other the future for Musk's businesses is then, it seems Trump - and his administration's actions - will continue to have a big say in them. Sign up for our Tech Decoded newsletter to follow the world's top tech stories and trends. Outside the UK? Sign up here.
