Zohran Mamdani's Mayoral Odds Increase After Trump Report

Newsweek

3 days ago

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The odds on Democratic candidate Zohran Mamdani winning the 2025 New York mayoral election have improved significantly, according to a betting insights website.
In analysis provided to Newsweek, Covers.com attributed Mamdani's rise to a New York Times report saying President Donald Trump had been discussing making a personal intervention in the mayoral campaign, which it said "backfired."
Newsweek contacted Mamdani for comment via email on Friday outside of regular office hours.
Why It Matters
In June, Mamdani, a self-described "Democratic socialist" and currently a New York State Assembly member, defeated former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo to become the 2025 New York Democratic mayoral candidate in a shock result.
Another win for Mamdani in November would be a major victory for the American left and could potentially shift the center of gravity within the Democratic Party as a whole ahead of the 2028 presidential election.
What To Know
Mamdani's odds of winning the upcoming New York mayoral election increased by 10 percentage points from 72 percent in July to 82 percent on Thursday, according to Covers.com.
Over the same period, the odds of Cuomo remained flat at 9 percent while incumbent Mayor Eric Adams saw his odds tumble from 21 percent to 6 percent.
Cuomo and Adams are both contesting the election as independent candidates after Mamdani secured the Democratic nomination. Adams had been facing federal corruption charges but these were dropped by the Trump administration.
According to The New York Times, the president and New York native has been sounding out allies and pollsters over which of Cuomo or Adams would have the best chances of beating Mamdani.
Citing eight people briefed on discussions the publication said Trump had spoken to pollster Mark Penn and former New York City Council President Andrew Stein about whether he should get involved to try and stop Mamdani from winning.
Reacting to the report, Mamdani said: "This should be a race about addressing the questions of who will make the city affordable, who will ensure that each and every New Yorker is safe...not an audition for the best jester for Donald Trump and his billionaire supporters."
New York mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani speaking during a press conference at the 1199SEIU headquarters on August 11, 2025 in New York City.
New York mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani speaking during a press conference at the 1199SEIU headquarters on August 11, 2025 in New York City.
Michael M. Santiago/GETTY
Covers.com said this move "appears to have backfired" by "boosting progressive frontrunner Zohran Mamdani by 10 points in betting markets."
In comments sent to Newsweek, political strategist Adin Lenchner, who worked on President Barack Obama's 2012 reelection campaign and later became interim-head of program and strategy for progressive advocacy group Swing Left, said Mamdani appeals to voters fed up with "performative politics."
He said: "It should come as no surprise that the two candidates in this race that have been under federal investigation or indictment would gravitate to the most prominent criminal in politics of our time for back up...
"People are tired of broken promises and performative politics. Mamdani offered something different: a clear-eyed, positive vision rooted in values, not fear and division."
The Department of Justice is currently investigating Cuomo in response to comment he made during a September 2024 congressional hearing over his March 2020 directive instructing nursing homes to receive COVID-19 patients. His spokesperson Rich Azzopardi described the move as "lawfare and election interference."
Cuomo resigned as New York State governor in 2021 following allegations he sexually harassed a number of women. Cuomo said some of his "interactions may have been insensitive or too personal" but denied sexual assault, and a criminal case against him was dropped in January 2022.
On Wednesday, footage emerged of Mamdani being heckled and booed while visiting the Istanbul Bay Mediterranean Restaurant in Staten Island.
What People Are Saying
Mamdani posted to X on Wednesday: "Today we learned Andrew Cuomo is directly coordinating with Donald Trump, even as this President sends masked agents to rip our neighbors off the streets and guts the social services so many New Yorkers rely on. It's disqualifying and a betrayal of our city."
When asked by reporters on Wednesday whether he'd spoken to Cuomo about the mayoral race, Trump replied: "I haven't no I haven't."
New York Democratic U.S. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez posted to X on Wednesday: "NYers knew Andrew Cuomo was backed by Trump's orbit. That's why he lost the primary. Now we have confirmation. It's time for Dem leaders to unite behind @ZohranKMamdani. If they don't now, how can they call for party unity later? We must lead by example. Let's win together."
What Happens Next
The 2025 New York mayoral election takes place on November 4. In addition to Mamdani, Cuomo and Adams, talk show host Curtis Sliwa is running as the Republican candidate.