Nomura sees Fed rate cut in September as inflation cools
The Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% last month, easing from a 0.3% gain in June and broadly in line with economists' expectations, while annual inflation came in slightly below forecasts, according to data released on Tuesday.
The brokerage expects two more 25-bp reductions, in December 2025 and March next year, but said a 50-bp cut next month is unlikely as "The labor market is slowing, but there are few signs of stress, and broader financial conditions remain easy."
The brokerage also lowered its core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) estimate to 0.243% for July, from 0.325%, citing softness in segments such as prescription drugs and software.
Traders, on average, are pricing in 60.4 bps of Fed rate cuts by the end of the year, with a 94.2% probability of a 25-bp reduction in September, according to data from LSEG and the CME Group's FedWatch tool.
Other top brokerages, including J.P.Morgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo retained their stance, for a September rate cut.
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