The new world order moves from unipolar moment to multipolar reality

Express Tribune

27-02-2025

A multipolar world emerges as US dominance faces challenges from China, Russia, and rising global alliances.
In 1992, American political scientist Francis Fukuyama, in his political philosophy 'end of history' proclaimed prevalence of Western liberal democracy and triumph of capitalism over communism, and expressed optimism that the unipolar world would be more peaceful and prosperous.
However, over two decades of unipolarity witnessed increased geopolitical confrontations and military conflicts around the globe, leading to growing disillusionment with the anticipated optimism of global peace.
Brown University's Watson Institute for Public and International Affairs has estimated that the USA incurred USD 8 trillion and resulted in 940,000 military and civilian deaths in its post-9/11 wars in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, Syria, Yemen and others besides 3.6-3.8 million indirect deaths caused by famine, food insecurity, malnutrition and spread of diseases.
In the European theatre, NATO and Russia have so far, suffered extensive military and economic losses (over one million deaths and USD one trillion), with no immediate solution in sight.
In the Middle East, Israel, has been unleashing brutal state power and committing genocide and war crimes against unarmed civilians in Gaza. Arab News has reported that by end 2024, the war had resulted in colossal death and destruction involving over 46,500 deaths (most of whom were women and children) besides billions of USDs infrastructural losses.
Presenting an alarming account of global insecurity, SIPRI Yearbook 2024 on Armament, Disarmament and International Security stated that during the 2023, 52 countries experienced armed conflicts across the globe.
Among these, four were classified as major armed conflicts (10,000 or more fatalities in one year), while 20 were categorized as high-intensity armed conflicts (1,000–9,999 fatalities). Total number of conflict-related fatalities worldwide stood at 170,700 in 2023.
Western global financial system is also anchored around carrot-and-stick approach to pursue geopolitical objectives. Weaponization of Dollar and International Financial Institutions (IFIs) emerged as the principal tools to either rewarding likeminded countries or constricting geopolitical space for the non-compliant states, thus undermining the principles of equity, fairness, shared interests and global consensus.
Imposition of sanctions and trade barriers, and misuse of forums like FATF for geopolitical arm twisting are few of the examples in this regard.
Currently, USA is in love-hate relationship with China having inherent dichotomies. On one hand, USA has declared China as the main competitor in its National Security Strategy 2017 and orchestrated military alliances such as QUAD, AUKUS and Squad to encircle China, however on the other hand, it had a bilateral trade of USD 583 billion during 2024.
Similarly, the USA has designated India as the 'net security provider' against China in its Indo-Pacific Strategy-2022 and extended number of nuclear, technological, military and economic favors to India.
However, on realistic grounds, India not only falls short of the required capabilities commensuration to its designated role but also expressed its unwillingness to side USA in case of confrontation. Interestingly, India also enjoyed bilateral trade with China of over USD 118 billion during 2024.
China, on the other hand, has been translating its unprecedented economic growth to attract global acceptance by pursuing cooperation instead of competition and inviting mutually shared prosperity.
China's global projects including Belt and Road Initiative (BRI-2013), Global Development Initiative (GDI-2021), Global Security Initiative (GSI-2022), and the Global AI Governance Initiative (GAIGI- 2023) seem to have gained traction.
China has so far, signed over 200 cooperation agreements with more than 150 countries and 30 international organizations across Asia, Africa, Europe and South America.
China is utilizing its huge economic space to lead in research and development in military, space, cyber space, AI and emerging technologies. According to Critical Technology Tracker of Australia Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), China topped 57 out of 64 technology areas (90%) for producing research papers released between 2019 and 2023.
Owing to its growing clout and credibility, China has also emerged as the global peace maker to settle direct and proxy military conflicts across Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa.
In a significant development, post Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to China in May 2024, a joint communique was issued which predominantly conveyed the beginning of a 'new era' and pledged to 'promote an equal and orderly multipolar world, the democratization of international relations and to gather strength to build a just and reasonable multipolar world'.
The joint statement also highlighted that the multipolar world order will be principled on two rules. One, a new world order with 'no neo-colonialism and hegemonism of any kind'. Two, an order 'based on the UN Charter'.
China and Russia have also promoted and strengthened multilateral forums such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which represents almost half of the world's population, hosts four nuclear weapon states and constitutes 60% of global economy.
Remarkably, the SCO Summit in Astana in July 2024, recognized the shift in global power structure from a unipolar world order to a multipolar one. BRICS is another example, comprising a bloc of emerging economies of the world representing 36 percent of world's GPD.
With the inclusion of Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, BRICS now produces about 44 percent of global crude oil. In 2023, the BRICS economies overtook those of the G7 based on their share of world GDP in purchasing power parity terms.
There has also been a discourse regarding the potential of BRICS countries to trade in local currencies aimed at de-dollarization. In this regard, China has already encouraged countries to settle trade in local currency. According to a report by People's Daily Online, China's trade in Yuan accounted for 25% of its total trade in 2023.
The USA's unipolar moment is being challenged and under threat from two intensely interwoven realities.
One, from American own pressure emerging out of unilateralism, military interventionism, unwavering support to the Israeli genocide, ever increasing insecurity amongst allies, expansion of NATO, arming Ukraine against Russia, containing China and designating countries like India as the 'net security provider', rapidly losing technological race and economic pressures.
Secondly, resurgent Russia alongside peacefully rising China are spearheading an alternative global order grounded on the principles of shared interests and mutual prosperity with a promise of 'no neo-colonialism and hegemonism of any kind' and an order 'based on the UN Charter'.
President Trump's recent hands-off initiatives not only promise a path towards global peace and security but also raise questions about the future of prevalent global security architecture.