A new way the US may be falling behind China

Politico

3 days ago

The United States and China — the world's largest climate polluters — went in opposite directions during the first half of the year.
Chinese carbon dioxide emissions fell 2.7 percent during the first six months of 2025, while U.S. CO2 emissions were up 4.2 percent, according to Carbon Monitor, a global emissions tracker led by an international team of academics.
That's a reversal of the usual trend over the past decade, when global heat-trapping emissions inched higher in large part because U.S. reductions have been offset by higher CO2 output from China. It also comes after decades of American politicians of both parties complaining about China failing to clean up its act.
Analysts say it's too soon to declare the reversal a trend. Weather and short-term economic factors like natural gas prices have a lot to do with the numbers from the first half of the year. Both can change quickly.
But there are also signs of structural changes in the global economy.
China emits more planet-warming pollution than any other nation, thanks to its robust appetite for coal, by far the most carbon-intensive fossil fuel. The country accounts for more than half of global coal consumption. But Chinese coal consumption fell 2.6 percent compared with the first half of 2024, according to the International Energy Agency.
A solar boom is the primary reason for the shift. China installed a staggering 92 gigawatts of solar capacity in May alone, taking the total capacity of its solar fleet to more than 1 terawatts, according to IEA. To put that number in context, total U.S. solar capacity was about 134 GW at the end of June.
Glen Peters, a senior scientist at the Center for International Climate Research, said the decrease in greenhouse gas emissions reflected a fundamental shift in how China consumes energy. But he added: 'Even if Chinese emissions decline this year, I would not start saying they have peaked. I would want to see emissions trending down for a few years.'
The US is the wild cardCarbon emissions have steadily declined in the U.S. over the past 15 years, thanks in large part to falling coal consumption. That was even true during President Donald Trump's first term, when almost a fifth of the country's coal capacity shut down.
But major questions exist about whether the U.S. can continue to pull down climate emissions over time. U.S. coal generation was up 14 percent through the first half of 2025, thanks to robust power demand and higher natural gas prices.
Trump has taken emergency action to keep some coal plants open while utilities including Arizona Public Service, a big power company in the West, are announcing plans to postpone future coal retirements in the face of rising electricity demand from data centers.
Rob Jackson, an earth system scientist at Stanford University, said it is too early to draw conclusions from the 2025 data. But he said the broader economic trends taking place in the U.S. and China are already clear.
'It's fair to say that China and the U.S. are on different trajectories now,' he said. Chinese emissions are likely to drop in absolute and relative terms over the next five years thanks to the adoption of clean technologies.
The U.S., meanwhile, is 'heading in the opposite direction,' he said. 'We're scaling back renewables. We're scaling back the adoption of EVs.'
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