Geopolitical forces beyond New Delhi's control are at play in Trump's approach to India

The Print

7 days ago

Behind Trump's fresh round of rants and wrath aimed at India lies a broader geopolitical curve in Trump's foreign and national security policy. In Trump's first as well second terms, his positive vibe towards President Vladimir Putin of Russia, otherwise an eyesore for America's western allies, has been relatively more welcomed in India. Compared to the Biden presidency, which was crystal clear on confronting Russia and supporting Ukraine sans conditions, the Trump presidency was more forthcoming on talking to Moscow and more circumscribed in its support for Ukraine. However, of late, amid dwindling prospects of a peace deal with Putin, Trump has taken a U-turn in his approach to the Russia-Ukraine war and threatened Moscow with new primary and secondary sanctions, and promised Ukraine with advanced missile systems.
That Trump is displeased with a number of allies and partners has almost become a constant fixture in his second term, and India does not enjoy any special privilege. So, there are two ways of looking at the current spat and the low point in the India-US partnership. First, there is a broader geopolitics reshaping Trump's almost pretzelian foreign policy twists. Second, a painful road awaits as Washington-New Delhi negotiations over a mini trade deal whose terms and conditions will remain uncertain, and even if agreed upon, will remain largely ad hoc and piecemeal.
US President Donald Trump reignited trade tensions with India on 30 July, accusing it of imposing 'far too high' tariffs and threatening a 25 per cent levy starting 1 August. Despite ongoing efforts toward a mini trade deal and a $500 billion trade target by 2030, Trump's obsession with trade reciprocity and a 'messianic' zeal to correct any trade imbalance overnight with partner countries, looms large over the relationship. He also criticised India's defense and oil ties with Russia , hinting at potential penalties. Still, in typical Trump fashion, he later softened his stance, saying India was now willing to reduce tariffs 'very substantially,' adding, 'We're talking to India now – we'll see what happens.'
Therefore, whatever traction New Delhi had hoped for in navigating its ties with Moscow and Washington stands highly vulnerable to the new downslide in US-Russia dynamics.
On the other hand, Pakistan's newfound relevance in the Trump team, when there's heightened India-Pakistan tensions, is clearly a new curveball that New Delhi has to handle. The same President, who had once accused Pakistan of offering only lies and deceit in its relationship with the United States, has rolled out the red carpet for the Pakistani military leadership, hosting the Army Chief Asim Munir at the White House. Besides, the optics over Trump's role in the ceasefire call between India and Pakistan have left a lot to be desired, with New Delhi continuing to clarify that India will not accept any third-party 'mediation' in the India-Pakistan conflict.
The US Central Command Chief General Michael Kurilla, who had called Pakistan a 'phenomenal' counterterrorism partner, was also conferred one of Pakistan's biggest honours, 'Nishan-e-Imtiaz'.
Additionally, the political and economic churning that Trump's presidency continues to engineer has led to many allies and partners, in both the transatlantic and transpacific theatres, recalibrating and de-risking their ties with the United States. The BRICS forum, of which India is a founding member, has often faced the wrath of Trump, threatening to slap skyrocketing tariff figures on any country joining the de-dollarisation drive.
The expanded BRICS, in New Delhi's eyes, is the prime forum for the emerging economies, but with US-Russia-China dynamics going further downhill, Washington views it as antithetical to America's interests. Then, there is the question of the upcoming Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) summit in India, a forum that is viewed as a strategic threat in Beijing and Moscow.
Clearly, India's plate is full in terms of practising its great balancing act amid major power rivalries, as geopolitical rifts widen, and the area of manoeuvring autonomy decreases. Moreover, loud murmurs of the Russia-India-China (RIC) troika rising back from the cold should be setting off alarm bells in the American beltway.
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Road to an uncertain deal
Geopolitical forces beyond India's control are shaping Trump's approach to the India-US partnership, which has been painstakingly built in the last two decades. But the Trump administration needs to see the strategic import of the India-US economic relationship, and not merely the quantitative outcomes of trade and tariff reciprocity, a call that might not be heard very loudly in Washington currently.
In the last seven months of his second term, Trump, through numerous executive orders, policy pronouncements, and bilateral negotiations, has ushered in a new churn, the scale of which has never been seen before, upending the global economic order of the post-World War II era. While differences over the terms of trade engagement between India and the US have always featured at the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and in bilateral negotiations, the urgency of forcing deals and stopgap arrangements to win short-term goals has never been this insistent.
'We're going to see. India has been a good friend, but India has charged basically more tariffs than almost any other country,' Trump said when quizzed on what he expected from the ongoing trade negotiations. 'But now I'm in charge, and you just can't do that,' he added.
The India-US strategic partnership has managed to tackle the temporary and persistent irritants, born out of bilateral divergences and broader geopolitics, through institutional habits of cooperation, leadership chemistry, and, quite clearly, strategic convergences vis-à-vis China. However, the depreciating value of predictability and a strategic myopia on Washington's part may be one of the imminent dangers hovering over this partnership that will have both short-term jerks and longer-term consequences. The current strategic drift risks reinforcing doubts on both sides—that the US is unreliable and India a reluctant partner.
Monish Tourangbam is a Senior Research Consultant at the Chintan Research Foundation (CRF), New Delhi. Views are personal.
(Edited by Ratan Priya)