India's economy has tripled in size over last decade
The Reserve Bank of India expects this pace to continue into 2025–26. Other projections echo this optimism, with the United Nations forecasting growth of 6.3 per cent this year and 6.4 per cent next year, while the Confederation of Indian Industry places its estimate slightly higher at 6.4 to 6.7 per cent.
This sustained performance is being driven by strong domestic demand. Rural consumption has picked up, city spending is rising, and private investment is on the upswing. Businesses are expanding capacity, with many operating near their maximum output levels. At the same time, public investment remains high, especially in infrastructure, while stable borrowing conditions are helping firms and consumers make forward-looking decisions, the statement said.
Global conditions, by contrast, remain fragile. The United Nations has described the world economy as being in a "precarious moment", citing trade tensions, policy uncertainties, and declining cross-border investments. Amid this, India continues to stand out as a bright spot, with global institutions and industry bodies expressing confidence in its growth prospects.
As part of India's strong macroeconomic fundamentals, inflation in the country has eased sharply, offering relief to both households and businesses. In May 2025, the year-on-year inflation rate based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 2.82 per cent. This marks the lowest level since February 2019. It also reflects a drop of 34 basis points from the previous month.
Food prices, which often have a big impact on overall inflation, have also cooled. The Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) recorded an inflation rate of just 0.99 per cent in May 2025. This is the lowest food inflation seen since October 2021. Rural and urban food inflation were almost identical, at 0.95 per cent and 0.96 per cent, respectively. Compared to April 2025, food inflation declined by 79 basis points, showing a clear downward trend in essential items like vegetables and grains.
Overall, the Reserve Bank believes that inflation will stay aligned with its medium-term target of 4 per cent. In fact, it may even fall slightly below that level in the coming months.
India's capital markets are booming, and the confidence is visible. They have become a powerful engine for economic growth by turning household savings into investments. Despite global tensions and domestic uncertainties, the stock market maintained strong performance by December 2024. It outperformed many other emerging economies, showing how investors, both local and global, trust India's growth story, the statement added.
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