Phillies trade deadline takeaways: Closing time, outfield upgrade, prospects pay off

New York Times

31-07-2025

The trade deadline has come and gone, and Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski now has the signature deadline deal of his tenure running the club.
The Wednesday evening acquisition of Minnesota Twins reliever Jhoan Duran, who is under team control through 2027, for two of the team's top-ten prospects made clear that the Phillies mean business. But did they do enough?
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Here's a further look at their deadline dealings and what they could mean moving forward.
The club has run a closer-by-committee operation the entire season, incorporating José Alvarado prior to his suspension for performance-enhancing-drug usage, along with Matt Strahm and Orion Kerkering. Generally, during his tenure, manager Rob Thomson has preferred deploying his bullpen based on matchups. That strategy, in the ninth inning, is no more. Duran will be the closer.
The Phillies' bullpen has been among the league's worst since Alvarado's suspension on May 18. Over that span, their bullpen ERA (4.34) is 20th, FIP (4.62) is 27th, strikeout rate (20.5 percent) is 25th and WHIP (1.38) is 22nd. There have been some positives: Kerkering's emergence, Strahm bouncing back from a rough June and relievers such as Tanner Banks and Max Lazar stepping up in big moments at times.
But the Phillies needed some swing-and-miss, dominant stuff. They will get that in Duran, whose whiff rate (30.9 percent) is in the 87th percentile of the league, chase rate (31.1 percent) is in the 82nd percentile and strikeout rate (25.7 percent) is in the 73rd percentile.
Duran is the Phillies' most notable bullpen acquisition. But recent free-agent signee David Robertson, who is ramping up at Triple A, is expected to join the Phillies on Aug. 5. So, two members of the current bullpen have to go. Seth Johnson, a hard-throwing righty with seven earned runs in 8 2/3 innings in July, could be an option. So could Daniel Robert, who allowed three earned runs in his most recent outing. Offseason acquisitions Jordan Romano and Joe Ross could be in danger of losing their roster spots as well.
The Phillies' outfield, defensively and offensively, is among the worst in the league. The group sits at minus-18 Defensives Runs Saved, which ranks 27th, and has amassed 1.0 WAR (26th). On offense, the group is 26th in OPS (.677) and 24th in slugging (.372).
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Adding Twins outfielder Harrison Bader is an improvement, and at a lower cost than some of the hottest outfielders on the market. Bader, a 2021 Gold Glove Award winner, ranks sixth among outfielders in DRS (13).
The addition of Bader raises the question: Who in the current outfield will go? Returning Weston Wilson to Triple-A Lehigh Valley could make sense. So could designating Max Kepler for assignment or optioning Johan Rojas to Triple A. Kepler, a $10 million offseason addition, has not rebounded from a down 2024 this season as the Phillies had hoped. He's hit .203/.297/.357 through 94 games and has taken issue with playing in a platoon, saying the Phillies told him he would be the everyday left fielder.
Where Bader plays could depend on whether the Phillies pull the plug and bring up Justin Crawford, who has starred with Lehigh Valley. It seems they are interested in a call-up soon: 'He's a person that's always in our minds,' Dombrowski said on July 21. Crawford, slashing .325/.411/.426, does not have much left to prove at Triple A.
If called up, Crawford could start in left, perhaps platooning with right-handed Bader. Or Bader could platoon in center with Brandon Marsh, who bats left.
Mick Abel delivered one of the best debuts in Phillies history on May 18, as he struck out nine in six scoreless innings. But he did not have much of a path to cracking the Phillies' elite rotation. He turned out to be a very valuable trade chip, paired with fellow top prospect Eduardo Tait.
Tait and Abel ranked as the organization's third and sixth prospects, respectively, per Baseball America. Tait is years away from the big leagues and needs further defensive development. Abel, beyond lacking a path to the Phillies' rotation, needs to continue to refine his command. And the prospects traded in the Bader deal — outfielder Henry Mendez (No. 17 prospect) and pitcher Geremy Villoria (unranked) — seem like a fair price for a Gold Glove winner. Although these prospects are promising, it's a type of move that makes sense for the contending Phillies.
What's most important, perhaps, is that the Phillies did not trade the prospects they feel are key to the organization's future: pitcher Andrew Painter, shortstop Aidan Miller and Crawford. And they still managed to upgrade their outfield and find their closer. That is a win.