Tampa Bay Lightning at Detroit Red Wings odds, picks and predictions

USA Today

08-02-2025

The Tampa Bay Lightning (29-20-4) and the Detroit Red Wings (28-21-5) meet Saturday at Little Caesars Arena. Puck drop is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN+). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's NHL odds around the Lightning vs. Red Wings odds and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.
Season series: Tied 1-1; Home team is 2-0 in the first 2 games, while the Under is 1-0-1
Detroit has won 4 of the past 5 meetings, while the underdog is also 4-1 in the span. The 'dog is 7-3 in the previous 10 meetings since April 19, 2022. The Under is 3-0-1 in the past 4 meetings, and 5-1-1 in the past 7 in this series.
The Lightning swept a back-to-back against the visiting Ottawa Senators Tuesday and Thursday, outpacing the Sens 9-4 with a pair of Over results. In Tampa's most recent road game, it lost 2-0 to the Red Wings, as Cam Talbot outdueled Andrei Vasilevskiy.
The Red Wings edged the Seattle Kraken 5-4 in a shootout on the road Tuesday, and Detroit has won 7 straight games since Jan. 23. In the past 4 wins, Detroit has not only won in 3 games, but each are either in overtime or a shootout. The Over cashed against the Kraken, halting a 3-0 Under run. The total has gone low at a 6-2-1 clip in the previous 9 outings.
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Lightning at Red Wings odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:20 a.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML) : Lightning -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Red Wings +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
: Lightning -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Red Wings +120 (bet $100 to win $120) Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS) : Lightning -1.5 (+170) | Red Wings +1.5 (-210)
: Lightning -1.5 (+170) | Red Wings +1.5 (-210) Over/Under (O/U): 6 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Lightning at Red Wings projected goalies
Andrei Vasilevskiy (23-15-3, 2.28 GAA, .919 SV%, 3 SO) vs. Alex Lyon (10-6-1, 2.58 GAA, .908 SV%, 1 SO)
Vasilevskiy backstopped both wins against the Senators, and he is 2-0-1 with a 3.04 GAA and .924 SV% in 3 starts in February. In his last meeting with the Red Wings, he stopped 30 of the 31 shots he faced in Detroit, but he received zero goals of support. He kicked aside 38 of 39 shots in the 5-1 win Jan. 18 in the first meeting with the Wings.
Lyon is confirmed to start. He allowed 2 goals on 27 shots in a 3-2 OTW in Vancouver Sunday. He has won back-to-back starts, while allowing exactly 2 goals in each of the past 3 outings. He came on in relief in the third period of the Jan. 18 loss in Tampa, stopping all 6 shots he faced.
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Lightning at Red Wings picks and predictions
Prediction
Red Wings 3, Lightning 2
The RED WINGS (+120) are worth a look as short 'dogs, as they're on fire lately with 7 consecutive wins. They've also dominated the series against the Lightning (-145) in the first 2 matchups, and in the recent meetings in the series.
Under new coach Todd McLellan, the Red Wings are 15-4-1 in 20 games since taking over for the fired Derek Lalonde as bench boss.
The Red Wings +1.5 (-210) will cost you more than 2 times your potential return, and that's way too much risk for not nearly enough reward. Even if you were to toss the Red Wings into a multi-leg parlay, it's not a recommended play. Just look to the moneyline instead.
PASS.
UNDER 6 (-105) is the lean.
The Under is on a 6-2-1 run for the Red Wings, including the most recent meeting Jan. 25 against the Lightning. The Under is 1-0-1 in 2 meetings with the Lightning since Jan. 18, too.
The Under also has a slight 5-3 edge in the past 8 games for the Lightning, with the goaltenders allowing 3 or fewer goals in 4 in a row, and 7 of the past 8 meetings.
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