US private payrolls increase in July
A Reuters survey of economists expects the BLS' employment report to show non-farm payrolls increased by 110,000 jobs in July after rising by 147,000 in June. The unemployment rate is forecast to increase to 4.2% from 4.1% in June.
Economists expect the Federal Reserve will keep its benchmark interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range after the end of a two-day policy meeting later on Wednesday, resisting pressure from President Donald Trump to lower borrowing costs. The Fed cut rates three times in 2024, with the last move coming in December.
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Time of India
10 minutes ago
- Time of India
The crude oil market bets Trump's India threats are hollow
The crude oil market 's rather sanguine reaction to the U.S. threats to India over its continued purchases of Russian oil is effectively a bet that very little will actually happen. President Donald Trump cited India's imports of Russian crude when imposing an additional 25per cent tariff on imports from India on August 6, which is due to take effect on August 28. If the new tariff rate does come into place, it will take the rate for some Indian goods to as much as 50per cent, a level high enough to effectively end U.S. imports from India, which totalled nearly $87 billion in 2024. As with everything related to Trump, it pays to be cautious given his track record of backflips and pivots. It's also not exactly clear what Trump is ultimately seeking, although it does seem that in the short term he wants to increase his leverage with Russian President Vladimir Putin ahead of their planned meeting in Alaska this week, and he's using India to achieve this. Whether Trump follows through on his additional tariffs on India remains uncertain, although the chances of a peace deal in Ukraine seem remote, which means the best path for India to avoid the tariffs would be to acquiesce and stop buying Russian oil. But this is an outcome that simply isn't being reflected in current crude oil prices. Global benchmark Brent futures have weakened since Trump's announcement of higher tariffs on India, dropping as low as $65.81 a barrel in early Asian trade on Monday, the lowest level in two months. This is a price that entirely discounts any threat to global supplies, and assumes that India will either continue buying Russian crude at current volumes, or be able to easily source suitable replacements without tightening the global market. Are these reasonable assumptions? The track record of the crude oil market is somewhat remarkable in that it quickly adapts to new geopolitical realities and any price spikes tend to be shortlived. The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 sent crude prices hurtling toward $150 a barrel as European and other Western countries pulled back from buying Russian crude. But within four months the price was back below where it was before Moscow's attack on its neighbour as the market simply re-routed the now discounted Russian oil to China and India. In other words, the flow of oil around the globe was shifted, but the volumes available for importers remained much the same. Different this time? But what Trump is proposing now is somewhat different. It appears he wants to cut Russian barrels out of the market in order to put financial pressure on Moscow to cut a deal over Ukraine. There are effectively only two major buyers for Russian crude, India and China. China, the world's biggest crude importer, has more leverage with Trump given U.S. and Western reliance on its refined critical and other minerals, and therefore is less able to be coerced into ending its imports of Russian oil. India is in a less strong position, especially private refiners like Reliance Industries , which will want to keep business relationships and access to Western economies. India imported about 1.8 million barrels per day of Russian crude in the first half of the year, or about 37per cent of its total, according to data compiled by commodity analysts Kpler . About 90per cent of its Russian imports came from Russia's European ports and was mainly Urals grade. This is a medium sour crude and it would raise challenges for Indian refiners if they sought to replace all their Urals imports with similar grades from other suppliers. There are some Middle Eastern grades of similar quality, such as Saudi Arabia's Arab Light and Iraq's Basrah Light, but it would likely boost prices if India were to seek more of these crudes. If Chinese refiners were able to take the bulk of Russian crude given up by India, it may allow for a re-shuffling of flows, but that would not appear to be what Trump wants. Trump and his advisers may believe there is enough spare crude production capacity in the United States and elsewhere to handle the loss of up to 2 million bpd of Russian supplies. But testing that theory may well lead to higher prices, especially for certain types of medium crudes which would be in short supply. It's simplistic to say that higher U.S. output can supply India's refiners, as this would mean those refiners would have to be willing to accept a different mix of refined products, including producing less diesel, as U.S. light crudes tend to make more products such as gasoline. For now the crude oil market is assuming that the Trump/India/Russia situation will end as another TACO, the acronym for Trump Always Chickens Out. But the reality is likely to be slightly more messy, as some Indian refiners pull back from importing from Russia, some Chinese refiners may buy more and once again the oil market goes on a geopolitical merry-go-round.
Economic Times
10 minutes ago
- Economic Times
Gold prices rally by Rs 2,400/10 grams in August so far, analysts predict further upside
Gold October futures prices at MCX have surged impressively by Rs 2,430 per 10 grams so far in August. However, they retreated slightly from their high today to trade at Rs 1,01,052 per 10 grams, down Rs 746 or 0.73% in intraday trade. ADVERTISEMENT Similarly, silver September contracts witnessed slight profit booking, trading lower by Rs 390 or 0.34% at Rs 1,14,491 per kg. On Friday, gold and silver settled on a positive note in both domestic and international markets. Gold October futures settled at Rs 1,01,798 per 10 grams with a gain of 0.33%, while silver September futures settled at Rs 1,14,881 per kg with a gain of 0.52%. However, prices slipped below $3,380 per ounce on Monday morning after news broke that US President Donald Trump will meet Russian President Vladimir Putin on August 15 in Alaska to discuss the Ukraine conflict, reducing safe-haven demand. Gold and silver extended their gains last week amid US trade tariff uncertainty and profit-taking in the dollar index. Gold prices hit a lifetime high in the international markets and closed at record levels, while silver crossed the $38.50 per troy ounce mark. Safe-haven buying by global central banks and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty continue to support bullion prices. 'Gold crossed its resistance level of $3,454 per troy ounce, and if prices sustain above these levels, they could strengthen further toward $3,509–3,540 per troy ounce in upcoming sessions,' said Manoj Kumar Jain of Prithvi Finmart Commodity Research. ADVERTISEMENT Today, the US Dollar Index (DXY) hovered near 98.05, down 0.13 points or 0.13%. Unlock 500+ Stock Recos on App 'We expect gold and silver prices to remain volatile this week amid US tariff uncertainty and fluctuations in the dollar index. Gold is expected to trade in the range of $3,410–3,540 per troy ounce, while silver may trade between $36.80 -40.00 per troy ounce,' he added. ADVERTISEMENT Gold has support at Rs 1,01,000-1,00,575 and resistance at Rs 1,02,220-1,02,850 has support at Rs 1,01,000-1,00,575 and resistance at Rs 1,02,220-1,02,850 Silver has support at Rs 1,13,650-1,12,800 and resistance at Rs 1,15,500-1,16,650 Jain suggests buying silver on dips around Rs 1,14,000 with a stop loss of Rs 1,12,800 for a target of Rs 1,16,000. ADVERTISEMENT Standard gold (22 carat) prices in Delhi stand at Rs 57,672/8 grams while pure gold (24 carat) prices stand at Rs 61,456/8 grams. ADVERTISEMENT Standard gold (22 carat) prices in Mumbai stand at Rs 57,600/8 grams while pure gold (24 carat) prices stand at Rs 61,456/8 gold (22 carat) prices in Chennai stand at Rs 57,000/8 grams while pure gold (24 carat) prices stand at Rs 60,736/8 gold (22 carat) prices in Hyderabad stand at Rs 57,096/8 grams while pure gold (24 carat) prices stand at Rs 60,888/8 grams. (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
Mint
10 minutes ago
- Mint
Trump's Fed pick is a dove. How Miran could move the market.
Wall Street shrugged at President Donald Trump's plan to nominate his economic adviser, Stephen Miran, to the Federal Reserve. The immediate market reaction to Thursday's announcement was muted, but investors now must factor in another White House-aligned voice pushing for rate cuts and a lighter regulatory touch inside the central bank. Miran, who is chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, is slated to complete the term of Fed Gov. Adriana Kugler, whose surprise resignation became effective on Friday. She joined the Board of Governors in September 2023; her term expires at the end of January. The Senate probably won't vote on the Miran nomination before the Fed's September policy meeting. So, the real significance for markets lies in what comes after September. 'This could be the first domino in a sequence leading to looser policy, inflation above target, and a weaker dollar," wrote Daniel Altman, founder of High Yield Economics, in a note. Miran has repeatedly called for a weaker dollar. In a 41-page essay on international trade, published by Hudson Bay Capital last November, Miran maintains that 'the root of the economic imbalances lies in persistent dollar overvaluation that prevents the balancing of international trade…." A former senior strategist at Hudson, Miran goes on to lay out what he describes as tools for reshaping global trade and the world's financial systems. A key tool, he wrote, is devaluation of the greenback, done by the Fed's ability to create money supply. 'Flooding the market with dollars, thus lowering short-term interest rates and causing higher inflation, would be one way to achieve Miran's goal," said Altman, 'and only the Federal Reserve has the tools to do it." Miran was a hawk who turned into a dove, now arguing that tariffs don't lead to inflation and who has repeatedly criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell for his reluctance to ease monetary policy. In the past, Miran proposed nationalizing the regional Federal Reserve Banks and making all board members at-will employees who the president can fire at any time. In the near term, Wall Street analysts don't see a major policy pivot at the Fed. 'Miran's appointment will do little to change policy on the margin in the near-term but it does add another dovish voice to the fray," wrote economists at 22V Research. Two Fed governors, Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, dissented during the central bank's July policy meeting, advocating for a quarter-point rate cut. There may be, however, 'an element of testing Waller's, and to a lesser extent Bowman's, dovish commitment if Miran is willing to always go one step beyond them in pushing for lower rates," the 22V economists wrote. Miran 'could speak a lot publicly, supporting the president and perhaps openly undermining Powell, but it will be hard for him to move the policy needle," said analysts at Capital Alpha Partners. 'The Fed isn't set up in a way that provides one governor that much influence." The timing of Miran's confirmation is also a market variable. 'Getting Miran approved by the Senate after it gets back from recess on September 5 but before the next FOMC meeting starts on September 16 would be a Herculean task," wrote Michael Feroli at JPMorgan. But, 'In the off chance Miran is governor by the time of the next meeting, that could imply three dissents. That's a lot of dissents." Assuming that Miran is approved by the Senate, Feroli expects the Fed to cut rates by a quarter point at each of its next three meetings. Miran's nomination is part of a larger push by the White House to reshape the role of the Fed. Personnel is policy—as the Reagan-era line goes—and analysts think that may be the best way to think about Trump's approach. Luis Alvarado, a global fixed income strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, called Miran's nomination a 'strategic move by the Trump administration to advance its economic agenda while also maintaining flexibility for future appointments." The upshot is that investors are now staring at a new vote for cheaper money and a friendlier stance on regulation, factors that could influence the size and pace of cuts, the path of the dollar, and how banks are supervised. Write to Nicole Goodkind at
