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New York Post
30-07-2025
- Business
- New York Post
GDP rebounds, private payrolls surge to buck recession doomsayers
Recession? What recession? The US economy bucked nonstop doom-and-gloom by prominent economists — including some at Wall Street's biggest banks — and reported stronger-than-expected growth, as well as a surge in hiring and wages. Gross domestic product – the value of all goods and services produced across the US economy – jumped by a seasonally and inflation adjusted 3%, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. That rebounded from a 0.5% decline in the first quarter and beat estimates of just 2.3% growth. A recession is usually defined by the GDP slipping in two consecutive quarters. 4 Cargo containers sit stacked at the Panama Canal Balboa port. AP Meanwhile, private employers added 104,000 jobs last month, according to the ADP National Employment Report released Wednesday. That reversed a 23,000 drop in June and exceeded the forecast for an increase of 64,000. Annual wages spiked 4.4% — well above the rate of inflation, which has remained below 3% despite politically motivated harping that President Trump's tariffs would jack up prices. 'Our hiring and pay data are broadly indicative of a healthy economy,' Nela Richardson, ADP's chief economist, said. 'Employers have grown more optimistic that consumers, the backbone of the economy, will remain resilient.' 4 Private employers added 104,000 jobs last month, according to the ADP. Christopher Sadowski That resilience upended dire predictions for a recession by many left-leaning politicians and even big banks like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan. The Wall Street giants had hiked the risk level for a recession to 65% and 60%, respectively, in April following Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariff rollout. One JPMorgan dashboard of market-based recession indicators put the likelihood at 'nearly 80%, with the Russell 2000 pricing in a 79% chance of an economic downturn,' Bloomberg reported on April 8. Both banks have since lowered the odds, to 40% by Jamie Dimon-led JPMorgan and 30% by Goldman-led David Solomon. The GDP surged without any help from the government as federal outlays declined 3.7%, coming off a steep 4.6% drop in the first quarter. 4 A container ship at a port in Qingdao, China. AFP via Getty Images Trump cheered the strong GDP data in a post on Truth Social before once again calling on the Federal Reserve to slash interest rates: 'No Inflation! Let people buy, and refinance, their home!' Fed policymakers, however, resisted pressure from the White House, leaving rates unchanged after their two-day meeting ended Wednesday. When combined with data from the first quarter, Wednesday's GDP report showed an economy in the first half of the year that is growing – albeit slowly at an annual rate of 1.2%, below last year's 2.5%. Demand from businesses and consumers, also called final sales to private domestic purchasers, rose at a 1.2% rate in the second quarter. This crucial figure does imply some weakness buried in the economic report, as it's down from 1.9% in the first quarter and at its weakest pace since 2022. 4 Economists had feared President Trump's tariffs would hit the economy hard. AP Consumer spending picked up in the second quarter at a 1.4% pace, according to the Commerce Department. 'The economy remains resilient and growing, and that's the most important takeaway from this report,' Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group, wrote in a note. In the private payrolls report, leisure and hospitality led the growth with 46,000 new jobs. Financial activities; trade, transportation and utilities; and construction also added significant hires – with increases of 28,000, 18,000 and 15,000, respectively. Education and health services lost 38,000 in the same period. Consumer confidence largely rebounded as economic anxiety around the tariffs eased, but the share of consumers viewing jobs as 'hard' to get jumped to the highest level in more than four years, according to a survey from the Conference Board. Economists are now awaiting the nonfarm payrolls report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which will be released Friday.
Gulf Today
30-07-2025
- Business
- Gulf Today
Global stocks steady as investors brace for Fed meet, tariff deadline
NEW YORK: Equities were modestly higher on Wednesday while the US dollar advanced as investors digested the latest economic data and waited for the Federal Reserve's policy announcement, which will be followed by key corporate earnings reports due later on Wednesday. Investors appeared to shrug off the latest trade news. US President Donald Trump on Wednesday announced a 25% tariff on US imports from India starting on Aug. 1 and that the country would also face an unspecified penalty on the same day. This was after talks between the US and China concluded without any major breakthroughs. In the latest data reports, US economic growth rebounded more than expected in the second quarter, but that grossly overstated the economy's health as declining imports accounted for the bulk of the improvement and domestic demand rose at its slowest pace in 2-1/2 years. And on the labor side, US private payrolls increased more than expected in July, according to the ADP National Employment Report. Private payrolls rose by 104,000 jobs last month after a revised 23,000 decline in June. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private employment increasing 75,000 following a previously reported drop of 33,000 in June. Next up is the Fed's policy statement at 2:00 p.m ET/ 1800 GMT, with the central bank widely expected to keep rates on hold despite pressure from the White House to lower borrowing costs. While investors are anxiously awaiting earnings reports from Microsoft and Meta after the bell, Paul Eitelman, global chief investment strategist at Russell Investments, said the better than expected results in the reporting season so far, and the morning's economic data were sending positive messages to the market. "What we're seeing broadly is a message of resilience where healthy corporate earnings are helping to reinforce and stabilize the labor market. We're just not seeing a lot of layoffs in that healthy fundamental backdrop and the stable labor market is helping to support consumer spending," said Eitelman. "None of it's particularly strong but it's fine and chugging along. Markets broadly seem like they're in a handoff phase from that risk aversion back in April to more of a fundamental resilience and momentum driven market." On Wall Street at 11:11am the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 38.20 points, or 0.09%, to 44,594.79, the S&P 500 rose 3.99 points, or 0.07%, to 6,375.41 and the Nasdaq Composite rose 57.69 points, or 0.27%, to 21,155.98. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe fell 0.20 points, or 0.02%, to 935.60 while the pan-European STOXX 600 index rose 0.01%. In treasuries, US 10-year Treasury yields rose as investors digested details of a Treasury refunding plan along with the economic data. The yield on benchmark US 10-year notes rose 3.6 basis points to 4.364%, from 4.328% late on Tuesday while the 30-year bond yield rose 3.3 basis points to 4.901% from 4.868% late on Tuesday. The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve, rose 2.5 basis points to 3.9%, from 3.875% late on Tuesday. In currencies, the dollar advanced against major peers on Wednesday following better-than-expected US GDP data and as investors awaited the outcome of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting later in the session. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, rose 0.56% to 99.44. The euro was down 0.59% at $1.1478 while Sterling weakened 0.47% to $1.3285 and the Canadian dollar weakened 0.34% versus the greenback to C$1.38 per dollar. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar strengthened 0.36% to 148.97. With the Bank of Japan expected to keep policy unchanged on Thursday, investors are waiting for any clues in its commentary as to when the next rate increase will come as a trade deal between Japan and the U.S. cleared the way for the bank to resume rate hikes. Oil prices were higher as investors awaited developments on Trump's tighter deadline for Russia to end the war in Ukraine and his tariff threats to countries that trade its oil. US crude rose 0.75% to $69.73 a barrel and Brent rose to $72.98 per barrel, up 0.65% on the day. Elsewhere in commodities, gold prices fell as the US economic data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady at its upcoming meeting, while also increasing the likelihood that rate cuts may be pushed back for the remainder of the year. Spot gold fell 0.78% to $3,300.49 an ounce. U.S. gold futures fell 0.79% to $3,297.90 an ounce. Copper declined 1.1% to $9,690.00 a tonne. Reuters
Economic Times
30-07-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
US private payrolls increase in July
US private payrolls increased more than expected July, the ADP National Employment Report showed on Wednesday, though the labor market continues to slow. Private payrolls rose by 104,000 jobs last month after a revised 23,000 decline in June. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private employment increasing 75,000 following a previously reported drop of 33,000 in June. The ADP report, jointly developed with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, was published ahead of the more comprehensive employment report for July due to be released on Friday by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics. There is no correlation between the ADP and BLS employment reports. The labor market has lost steam amid an unsettled economic outlook stemming from import tariffs. A survey from the Conference Board on Tuesday showed the share of consumers viewing jobs as "hard" to get jumped to the highest level in nearly 4-1/2 years in July. That is consistent with the high number of people collecting unemployment checks. A Reuters survey of economists expects the BLS' employment report to show non-farm payrolls increased by 110,000 jobs in July after rising by 147,000 in June. The unemployment rate is forecast to increase to 4.2% from 4.1% in June. Economists expect the Federal Reserve will keep its benchmark interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range after the end of a two-day policy meeting later on Wednesday, resisting pressure from President Donald Trump to lower borrowing costs. The Fed cut rates three times in 2024, with the last move coming in December.
Time of India
30-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
US private payrolls increase in July
US private payrolls increased more than expected July, the ADP National Employment Report showed on Wednesday, though the labor market continues to slow. Private payrolls rose by 104,000 jobs last month after a revised 23,000 decline in June. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private employment increasing 75,000 following a previously reported drop of 33,000 in June. Explore courses from Top Institutes in Please select course: Select a Course Category Data Science Design Thinking Others PGDM Leadership CXO Data Analytics Public Policy MBA Technology others Product Management Digital Marketing MCA Healthcare Data Science healthcare Cybersecurity Project Management Finance Management Artificial Intelligence Degree Skills you'll gain: Duration: 10 Months IIM Kozhikode CERT-IIMK DABS India Starts on undefined Get Details Skills you'll gain: Duration: 10 Months E&ICT Academy, Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati CERT-IITG Prof Cert in DS & BA with GenAI India Starts on undefined Get Details Skills you'll gain: Duration: 10 Months E&ICT Academy, Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati CERT-IITG Prof Cert in DS & BA with GenAI India Starts on undefined Get Details Skills you'll gain: Duration: 11 Months E&ICT Academy, Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati CERT-IITG Postgraduate Cert in AI and ML India Starts on undefined Get Details Skills you'll gain: Duration: 11 Months IIT Madras CERT-IITM Advanced Cert Prog in AI and ML India Starts on undefined Get Details The ADP report, jointly developed with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, was published ahead of the more comprehensive employment report for July due to be released on Friday by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics. There is no correlation between the ADP and BLS employment reports. The labor market has lost steam amid an unsettled economic outlook stemming from import tariffs. A survey from the Conference Board on Tuesday showed the share of consumers viewing jobs as "hard" to get jumped to the highest level in nearly 4-1/2 years in July. That is consistent with the high number of people collecting unemployment checks. A Reuters survey of economists expects the BLS' employment report to show non-farm payrolls increased by 110,000 jobs in July after rising by 147,000 in June. The unemployment rate is forecast to increase to 4.2% from 4.1% in June. Live Events Economists expect the Federal Reserve will keep its benchmark interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range after the end of a two-day policy meeting later on Wednesday, resisting pressure from President Donald Trump to lower borrowing costs. The Fed cut rates three times in 2024, with the last move coming in December. Economic Times WhatsApp channel )
Business Times
30-07-2025
- Business
- Business Times
US private payrolls increase in July
[WASHINGTON] US private payrolls increased more than expected in July, the ADP National Employment Report showed on Wednesday (Jul 30), though the labour market continues to slow. Private payrolls rose by 104,000 jobs last month after a revised 23,000 decline in June. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private employment increasing 75,000 following a previously reported drop of 33,000 in June. The ADP report, jointly developed with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, was published ahead of the more comprehensive employment report for July due to be released on Friday by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics. There is no correlation between the ADP and BLS employment reports. The labour market has lost steam amid an unsettled economic outlook stemming from import tariffs. A survey from the Conference Board on Tuesday showed the share of consumers viewing jobs as 'hard' to get jumped to the highest level in nearly 4-1/2 years in July. That is consistent with the high number of people collecting unemployment checks. A Reuters survey of economists expects the BLS' employment report to show nonfarm payrolls increased by 110,000 jobs in July after rising by 147,000 in June. The unemployment rate is forecast to increase to 4.2 per cent from 4.1 per cent in June. Economists expect the Federal Reserve will keep its benchmark interest rate in the 4.25 per cent-4.50 per cent range after the end of a two-day policy meeting later on Wednesday, resisting pressure from President Donald Trump to lower borrowing costs. The Fed cut rates three times in 2024, with the last move coming in December. REUTERS
