Will Key Drugs Maintain Momentum for Novartis in Q2 Earnings?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $14.04 billion, while the same for earnings is pinned at $2.38 per share. (Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)
NVS' Earnings Surprise History
Novartis has an excellent track record. Its earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 7.12%. In the previously reported quarter, earnings beat estimates by 7.55%.
What Our Model Predicts for NVS
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Novartis this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you will see below.
Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for NVS is -0.28% as the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $2.38 per share, while the Most Accurate Estimate is pinned at $2.37. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #2.
Factors Driving Growth for NVS in Q2
Novartis operates as a single global operating segment after the successful spin-off of the Sandoz business in October 2023. NVS now concentrates on four core therapeutic areas — cardiovascular-renal-metabolic, immunology, neuroscience and oncology.
NVS' second-quarter sales are likely to have been boosted by strong growth in Entresto, Kisqali, Kesimpta, Leqvio and Scemblix.
Cardiovascular drug Entresto sales witnessed a solid year-over-year surge in the first quarter of 2025, driven by robust demand-led growth. Increased penetration in China and Japan for hypertension indication also boosted demand. The momentum is likely to have continued in the second quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Entresto's second-quarter sales are pegged at $2.3 billion and $2.2 billion, respectively.
The stellar performance of the breast cancer drug Kisqali has likely fueled the top line in the second quarter as well. Strong momentum from the recently launched early breast cancer (eBC) indication in the United States has likely propelled sales further. Overall demand for the drug is being driven by increasing recognition of its overall survival benefit in HR+/HER2- metastatic breast cancer (mBC) as well as Category 1 NCCN Guidelines recommendation in both mBC and eBC.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Kisqali's second-quarter sales are pegged at $1 billion and $1.1 billion, respectively.
Increased demand has likely fueled multiple sclerosis drug Kesimpta's sales in the to-be-reported quarter.
Both the Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Kesimpta's second-quarter sales are pegged at $1 billion.
Cosentyx's sales have also likely surged in the United States, emerging growth markets and Europe, driven by recent launches as well as volume growth in core indications.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Cosentyx's second-quarter sales are pegged at $1.73 billion and $1.77 billion, respectively.
Strong growth in cholesterol-lowering drug Leqvio, too, has likely fueled sales in the second quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Leqvio's second-quarter sales are pegged at $284 million and $282 million, respectively.
Pluvicto continues to maintain momentum with continued stable performance in the country and Europe in the metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer post-taxane setting. The FDA approved the drug for use before chemotherapy. This approval approximately triples the eligible patient population. Consequently, Novartis is now focusing on driving demand in established RLT sites while activating new sites and supporting referring providers to enable patient access.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Pluvicto's second-quarter sales are pegged at $410 million and $411 million, respectively.
Demand for Scemblix for the indication of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) continued to grow in the previous quarter, driven by high unmet need in CML along with strong momentum from the recently launched early-line indication in the United States. The trend likely continued into the second quarter as well.
Other growth drivers, such as Zolgensma, Lutathera, Jakavi and Tafinlar + Mekinist, have likely witnessed an increase in demand.
However, generic competition for Tasigna and Lucentis might have affected sales, as in the previous quarters.
Key Recent Events
In June 2025, Novartis acquired clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company Regulus Therapeutics Inc. for an upfront payment of $0.8 billion. It may receive an additional $0.9 billion upon attaining a future regulatory milestone.
The acquisition added lead asset farabursen to NVS' pipeline. Farabursen is a novel, next-generation oligonucleotide targeting miR-17, which is being evaluated for autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease.
NVS' Price Performance
Shares of Novartis have rallied 27.3% year to date compared with the industry 's 1.8% growth.
Stocks to Consider
Here are some drug/biotech stocks that have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
Bayer BAYRY has an Earnings ESP of +6.38% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
BAYRY beat on earnings in one of the trailing four quarters, met in two and missed in the remaining one, the average negative surprise being 13.91%. Bayer will report second-quarter results on Aug. 6, 2025.
Exelixis EXEL has an Earnings ESP of +4.27% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. Exelixis beat on earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 48.6%. EXEL will report second-quarter results on July 28, 2025.
Gilead Sciences, Inc. GILD has an Earnings ESP of +2.13% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present. GILD beat on earnings in three of the trailing four quarters and missed in the remaining one, delivering an average surprise of 16.48%. Shares of GILD have gained 23.1% year to date.
7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days
Just released: Experts distill 7 elite stocks from the current list of 220 Zacks Rank #1 Strong Buys. They deem these tickers "Most Likely for Early Price Pops."
Since 1988, the full list has beaten the market more than 2X over with an average gain of +23.5% per year. So be sure to give these hand picked 7 your immediate attention.
See them now >>
Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
Novartis AG (NVS): Free Stock Analysis Report
Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD): Free Stock Analysis Report
Bayer Aktiengesellschaft (BAYRY): Free Stock Analysis Report
Exelixis, Inc. (EXEL): Free Stock Analysis Report
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