Could new tariffs cost Washington State $4.1B? What we know
President Trump temporarily paused his plans to impose new tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico.
Economists fear that even though these tariffs are still pending, there are already impacts due to the uncertainty of the tariffs.
SEATTLE - As President Trump puts a temporary pause on plans to impose new tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico, economists are beginning to assess the potential economic fallout from trade disruptions and price hikes across the United States.
A new analysis from Trade Partnership Worldwide reveals that Washington State could face a staggering $4.1 billion in economic losses due to these tariffs.
Dan Anthony, president of the nonpartisan group that conducted the analysis, says the multibillion-dollar hit is not a drop in the bucket.
By the numbers
"From a business perspective, there's a lot of freezing," said Anthony. "There's warehouses at the border that are supplying both sides. You don't need as many warehouse workers if trade contracts significantly."
Synthesizing numbers from the U.S. census, national data on tariffs and state figures on imports, Anthony has concluded tariffs on Canadian products alone could cost the state $2.75 billion, while Mexico's tariffs are estimated at $337 million, and those targeting China would amount to $1.08 billion. The impact would be felt across multiple industries, including agriculture, energy, and manufacturing. According to Anthony, toys Washington State imports from China are contributing to the billion-dollar projection.
"This is an industry that has effectively faced zero tariffs for a really long time," remarked Anthony.
Senator Maria Cantwell argued the agricultural sector, a key part of Washington's economy, is particularly vulnerable. Canada is Washington's largest agricultural export market, purchasing $1.3 billion worth of goods in 2023. Meanwhile, Mexico ranks fourth at $687 million. Everything from apples to frozen French fries, could see a ripple effect as prices rise.
What they're saying
"A lot of fertilizer products come from Canada and that's an area where you'd see farmer input prices go up," said Anthony.
The state also imports large amounts of crude oil and natural gas from Canada, which are used for heating homes and energy production.
"Those are products that Washington State is really only importing from Canada at least on the natural gas side," said Anthony. "The households in Washington are the ones that need it, the Canadians are the only ones supplying it and there's really nowhere to run."
The Source
Information comes from original reporting by FOX 13 Seattle reporter Lauren Donovan.
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