Pakistan central bank likely to hold policy rate amid geopolitical tension, inflation concern: Reuters poll
KARACHI, May 2 (Reuters) - The State Bank of Pakistan is set to hold its key interest rate at 12% on Monday, a Reuters poll showed, having paused a run of cuts at its last policy meeting to the surprise of market watchers due to geopolitical tension and outlook for inflation.
The bank's Monetary Policy Committee will meet in the shadow of an attack in Kashmir last week in which gunmen that India said were Pakistan-based killed 26 mostly Indian tourists.
Pakistan has said it has " credible intelligence" that India plans to respond with military action. India has said only that it will pursue and punish the attackers.
Since the attack on April 23, the spread between Pakistan and U.S. debt has widened nearly 200 basis points to more than 850 bps, meaning Pakistan's cost of borrowing has increased. (.JPMEGDPAKR), opens new tab
In a poll of fourteen analysts and investors, nine said they expected the bank to hold its policy rate. Three said they expected a 50 bp cut and two called for a 100 bp cut.
The bank had cut the rate by 1,000 basis points since June from an all-time high of 22% before holding it in March, citing the risk of price rises including from increased U.S. tariffs.
Still, analysts expect the bank to resume cuts this year to encourage lending and stimulate economic growth.
For now, the bank will likely maintain a wait-and-see approach due to a fluid trade picture, persistent core inflation and an upcoming International Monetary Fund review, said S&P Global Market Intelligence senior economist Ahmad Mobeen.
The IMF will review a $7 billion bailout loan programme on May 9 and decide whether to disburse the first $1 billion. It will also discuss a new $1.3 billion climate resilience loan.
The inflation rate fell to 0.7% in March, its lowest in nearly a decade. The Ministry of Finance pegs April inflation at 1.5% to 2% and the central bank forecasts average inflation to be in the range of 5.5% to 7.5% for the fiscal year ending June.
A "measured" cut on Monday could support economic recovery without undermining stability given the large gap between interest rates and inflation, and "improving but vulnerable external accounts", said Sana Tawfik, head of research at brokerage Arif Habib.
Increased foreign exchange reserves - ideally to the central bank target of $14 billion in June - are necessary before resuming monetary easing, said Al Meezan Investments head of research Amreen Soorani. The current $10.5 billion covers imports for less than two months.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
South Wales Guardian
2 hours ago
- South Wales Guardian
UK Government's £50m pledge for Casement Park an enormous step forward – O'Neill
Deputy First Minister Emma Little-Pengelly responded by stating that sport across Northern Ireland is 'crying out for financial support'. Northern Ireland Secretary Hilary Benn confirmed that the £50 million is ringfenced for the rebuild of the west Belfast GAA stadium and cannot be spent on other projects by the Stormont Executive. The money was included in Chancellor Rachel Reeves' spending review, which outlines the UK Government's spending plans over the coming years. Ireland's deputy premier Simon Harris said it is 'past time for the redevelopment of this historic venue to get under way'. Plans for a 34,000-capacity stadium have been mired in uncertainty because of a major funding gap of around £150 million. Today marks a significant step forward in the redevelopment of Casement Park, as the British government joins the Executive, the Irish government, and the GAA in committing funding. In every meeting I've had with the British government, I've made the case for funding Casement… — Michelle O'Neill (@moneillsf) June 11, 2025 The Government announcement includes £50 million over four years to support the currently derelict stadium being developed. Ms O'Neill said: 'Casement Park is an Executive flagship project and is more than just a sporting venue, it will serve as an economic driver for the surrounding communities and region, creating jobs and attracting investment. 'Today's commitment of substantial funding from the British Government marks an enormous step forward. It is time for all of us to pull together to now get Casement built.' Stormont ministers committed £62.5 million to Casement in 2011, as part of a strategy to revamp it along with football's Windsor Park and the rugby ground at Ravenhill. While the two other Belfast-based projects went ahead, the redevelopment of Casement was delayed for several years because of legal challenges by local residents. The estimated build cost spiralled in the interim. Last September the UK Government ended hopes that the west Belfast venue would host Euro 2028 games, when it said it would not bridge a funding gap to deliver the redevelopment in time. As well as the Stormont contribution of £62.5 million, the Irish government has offered roughly £42 million and the GAA has pledged to contribute at least £15 million. It has been reported that the cost of the project has fallen to £270 million since it was confirmed the ground would not host Euros matches. Under current plans and including the £50 million from Wednesday's announcement, the funding shortfall stands at roughly £100 million. Chief Secretary to the Treasury Darren Jones said it was now up to the Stormont Executive to do work on updating plans and costings for the Casement project. He said: 'We will look at those proposals to support them as best we can.' The DUP's Communities Minister Gordon Lyons has previously said that any additional money for sporting infrastructure in Northern Ireland had to be delivered on a fair and equitable basis. Ms Little-Pengelly said: 'It'll be over to the GAA in terms of the way forward on that, but from our point of view, it's very much about trying to ensure in an inclusive way that there is fairness right across the needs of all of our sports.' Asked if the £50 million could be spent on other Executive sporting projects, Mr Benn said: 'It is the bottom line. 'This is £50 million for Casement Park, it is ringfenced for that purpose.' He added: 'This is an Executive commitment, it dates from 2011. 'Three stadia – Windsor Park, Ravenhill, Casement Park, three great sporting codes. 'Two of them have been done and Casement Park has not been done. 'We all want to see it completed. 'It is worth looking at how much the UK Government has given directly to football, rugby, sport, leisure and other things over the past four-and-a-bit years, it amounts to £47 million, and a very small bit of that, £1.1 million, went to two projects supported by the GAA. 'We're balancing out what has been the contribution to football, rugby, other sports and leisure over the last four years because I think everyone wants to see the Casement Park project completed.' GAA president Jarlath Burns said it was an 'important and significant' investment from the UK Government. He added: 'We know, however, that this is not the final piece of jigsaw and there is much more work to do. 'The GAA will engage directly with the NI Executive and the Department for Communities to ensure that all parties actively pursue, and secure, a full funding package that will deliver upon the GAA's strategic stadium need.' Ms Reeves' announcement was also welcomed by the Irish government. Deputy premier and foreign affairs minister Simon Harris said Dublin had long supported the redevelopment of Casement Park as a 'landmark sports infrastructure project'. Mr Harris said: 'In February 2024, we made an early commitment from the Shared Island initiative of up to 50 million euro (£42 million) for the redevelopment of Casement. 'We underlined our commitment at that time to support the GAA in progressing this project in partnership with the UK and NI authorities. 'I will now engage with all these partners to deliver a redeveloped stadium. 'The last match hosted in Casement was well over a decade ago and it is past time for the redevelopment of this historic venue to get under way.'
Leader Live
2 hours ago
- Leader Live
UK Government's £50m pledge for Casement Park an enormous step forward – O'Neill
Deputy First Minister Emma Little-Pengelly responded by stating that sport across Northern Ireland is 'crying out for financial support'. Northern Ireland Secretary Hilary Benn confirmed that the £50 million is ringfenced for the rebuild of the west Belfast GAA stadium and cannot be spent on other projects by the Stormont Executive. The money was included in Chancellor Rachel Reeves' spending review, which outlines the UK Government's spending plans over the coming years. Ireland's deputy premier Simon Harris said it is 'past time for the redevelopment of this historic venue to get under way'. Plans for a 34,000-capacity stadium have been mired in uncertainty because of a major funding gap of around £150 million. Today marks a significant step forward in the redevelopment of Casement Park, as the British government joins the Executive, the Irish government, and the GAA in committing funding. In every meeting I've had with the British government, I've made the case for funding Casement… — Michelle O'Neill (@moneillsf) June 11, 2025 The Government announcement includes £50 million over four years to support the currently derelict stadium being developed. Ms O'Neill said: 'Casement Park is an Executive flagship project and is more than just a sporting venue, it will serve as an economic driver for the surrounding communities and region, creating jobs and attracting investment. 'Today's commitment of substantial funding from the British Government marks an enormous step forward. It is time for all of us to pull together to now get Casement built.' Stormont ministers committed £62.5 million to Casement in 2011, as part of a strategy to revamp it along with football's Windsor Park and the rugby ground at Ravenhill. While the two other Belfast-based projects went ahead, the redevelopment of Casement was delayed for several years because of legal challenges by local residents. The estimated build cost spiralled in the interim. Last September the UK Government ended hopes that the west Belfast venue would host Euro 2028 games, when it said it would not bridge a funding gap to deliver the redevelopment in time. As well as the Stormont contribution of £62.5 million, the Irish government has offered roughly £42 million and the GAA has pledged to contribute at least £15 million. It has been reported that the cost of the project has fallen to £270 million since it was confirmed the ground would not host Euros matches. Under current plans and including the £50 million from Wednesday's announcement, the funding shortfall stands at roughly £100 million. Chief Secretary to the Treasury Darren Jones said it was now up to the Stormont Executive to do work on updating plans and costings for the Casement project. He said: 'We will look at those proposals to support them as best we can.' The DUP's Communities Minister Gordon Lyons has previously said that any additional money for sporting infrastructure in Northern Ireland had to be delivered on a fair and equitable basis. Ms Little-Pengelly said: 'It'll be over to the GAA in terms of the way forward on that, but from our point of view, it's very much about trying to ensure in an inclusive way that there is fairness right across the needs of all of our sports.' Asked if the £50 million could be spent on other Executive sporting projects, Mr Benn said: 'It is the bottom line. 'This is £50 million for Casement Park, it is ringfenced for that purpose.' He added: 'This is an Executive commitment, it dates from 2011. 'Three stadia – Windsor Park, Ravenhill, Casement Park, three great sporting codes. 'Two of them have been done and Casement Park has not been done. 'We all want to see it completed. 'It is worth looking at how much the UK Government has given directly to football, rugby, sport, leisure and other things over the past four-and-a-bit years, it amounts to £47 million, and a very small bit of that, £1.1 million, went to two projects supported by the GAA. 'We're balancing out what has been the contribution to football, rugby, other sports and leisure over the last four years because I think everyone wants to see the Casement Park project completed.' GAA president Jarlath Burns said it was an 'important and significant' investment from the UK Government. He added: 'We know, however, that this is not the final piece of jigsaw and there is much more work to do. 'The GAA will engage directly with the NI Executive and the Department for Communities to ensure that all parties actively pursue, and secure, a full funding package that will deliver upon the GAA's strategic stadium need.' Ms Reeves' announcement was also welcomed by the Irish government. Deputy premier and foreign affairs minister Simon Harris said Dublin had long supported the redevelopment of Casement Park as a 'landmark sports infrastructure project'. Mr Harris said: 'In February 2024, we made an early commitment from the Shared Island initiative of up to 50 million euro (£42 million) for the redevelopment of Casement. 'We underlined our commitment at that time to support the GAA in progressing this project in partnership with the UK and NI authorities. 'I will now engage with all these partners to deliver a redeveloped stadium. 'The last match hosted in Casement was well over a decade ago and it is past time for the redevelopment of this historic venue to get under way.'
Leader Live
2 hours ago
- Leader Live
Trump says US will get magnets and rare earth minerals in China trade deal
In return, Mr Trump said the US will provide China 'what was agreed to', including allowing Chinese students to attend American colleges and universities. The new 55% tariff rate would mark a meaningful increase from the 30% levy set in Switzerland during talks in May. 'OUR DEAL WITH CHINA IS DONE, SUBJECT TO FINAL APPROVAL WITH PRESIDENT XI AND ME,' Mr Trump wrote on his social media site. He said full magnets and any necessary rare earths will be supplied up front by China. 'WE ARE GETTING A TOTAL OF 55% TARIFFS, CHINA IS GETTING 10%. RELATIONSHIP IS EXCELLENT!' Mr Trump wrote. Several global brands are among dozens of companies at risk of using forced labour through their Chinese supply chains because they use critical minerals or buy minerals-based products sourced from the far-western Xinjiang region of China, an international rights group said on Wednesday. The report by the Netherlands-based Global Rights Compliance says companies including Avon, Walmart, Nescafe, Coca-Cola and paint supplier Sherwin-Williams may be linked to titanium sourced from Xinjiang, where rights groups allege the Chinese government runs coercive labour practices targeting predominantly Muslim Uyghurs and other Turkic minorities. The report found 77 Chinese suppliers in the titanium, lithium, beryllium and magnesium industries operating in Xinjiang. It said the suppliers are at risk of participating in the Chinese government's 'labour transfer programmes,' in which Uyghurs are forced to work in factories as part of a long-standing campaign of assimilation and mass detention. Commercial paints, thermos cups and components for the aerospace, auto and defence industries are among products sold internationally that can trace their supply chains to minerals from Xinjiang, the report said. It said that companies must review their supply chains. 'Mineral mining and processing in (Xinjiang) rely in part on the state's forced labour programmes for Uyghurs and other Turkic people in the region,' the report said. The report came as China and the United States, the world's two largest economies, said that they have agreed on a framework to get their trade negotiations back on track after a series of disputes that threatened to derail them. The two sides on Tuesday wrapped up two days of talks in London that appeared to focus on finding a way to resolve disputes over mineral and technology exports that had shaken a fragile truce on trade reached in Geneva last month. Asked about the report, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said that 'no-one has ever been forcibly transferred in China's Xinjiang under work programmes'. 'The so-called allegation of forced labour in China's Xinjiang region is nothing but a lie concocted by certain anti-China forces. We urge the relevant organisation to stop interfering in China's internal affairs and undermining Xinjiang's prosperity and stability under the guise of human rights,' ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said. The named companies did not immediately comment on the report. A UN report from 2022 found China may have committed crimes against humanity in Xinjiang, where more than one million Uyghurs are estimated to have been arbitrarily detained as part of measures that the Chinese government said were intended to target terrorism and separatism. The Chinese government has rejected the UN claims and defended its actions in Xinjiang as fighting terror and ensuring stability. In 2021, then-US president Joe Biden signed a law to block imports from the Xinjiang region unless businesses can prove the items were made without forced labour. The law initially targeted solar products, tomatoes, cotton and apparel, but the US government recently added new sectors for enforcement, including aluminium and seafood. Many of China's major minerals corporations have invested in the exploration and mining of lithium, a key component for electric vehicle batteries, in Xinjiang, Global Rights Compliance said. Xinjiang is also China's top source of beryllium, a mineral used for aerospace, defence and telecommunications, its report said. A recent report by the International Energy Agency said that the world's sources of critical minerals are increasingly concentrated in a few countries, notably China, which is also a leading refining and processing base for lithium, cobalt, graphite and other minerals.
